Political Quirks - Polls

Posts in the Polls category.

Polls, polls, polls

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Polls, SGP

New poll found, interesting stats surfaced, and the role of the SGP as a canary. Welcome to Political Quirks, poll edition.

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New parties and their success

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50Plus, Minor parties, Pirates, Polls, PvdD

All polls agree that 50Plus will enter parliament after the elections, though they disagree on its exact number of seats: 1, 2, or even 3. In addition, Peil.nl thinks the Pirate Party is going to win one seat, although the other pollsters don’t agree.

In this entry we’ll take a closer look at new parties in parliament, and discover three rules:

  1. New parties generally win more than one seat.
  2. Pollsters never miss a new party: if a party gets 0 seats in the polls, it gets 0 seats in parliament.
  3. The opposite is not true: pollsters frequently give seats to parties who don’t win any.

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Polls and the prime-minister race

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Polls, SP, VVD

Although I’ve been silent for a long time I have kept track of the polls, which show a clear advantage for SP and VVD, with the rest of the parties trailing behind. Today I added a feature: a calculation of pollster errors in the 2002-2010 elections, which serves to understand why the Politieke Barometer is the most reliable poll.

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Party leaders, moves to the flanks, and Europe

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50Plus, CDA, Europe, GL, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, VVD

Sorry for the long silence; I’ve been very busy first, very lazy afterwards. But here’s a quick round-up of what’s happened in the past few weeks.

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A spectacular week

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CDA, Coalitions, D66, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, Samsom, VVD, Van Haersma Buma, Verhagen

This week was a spectacular one in Dutch politics, with expectations starting very low but climbing to dizzying heights at the end of the week, after a five-party austerity agreement was reached. Winners: D66, CU, and maybe GL and CDA. Losers: PvdA and possibly the PVV.

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Three new polls

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Polls

I haven’t reported on them yet, but all three pollsters have released a new poll which have been added to the polls page. In general. the recent trend from PVV to SP is confirmed, but has slowed down considerably.

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Political preference research

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Polls

The University of Amsterdam and political TV programme Een Vandaag recently released interesting research on the preferences of Dutch voters, and their supposed volatility.

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Yes, PVV in trouble

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PVV, Polls, SP

The new Politieke Barometer poll was just released, and it confirms the PVV-to-SP trend. SP +7, PVV -4. See the polls page for the updated averages and coalitions.

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New Peil.nl poll; SP marching on

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PVV, Polls, SP, VVD

The new Peil.nl poll has been released and I added it to the polls page. In addition, Peil.nl released some extra polling focused on the SP.

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TNS-NIPO poll update

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Polls

TNS-NIPO has published its poll, and it turned out it was misquoted by the newspapers: D66 had 17 seats, and not 19.

Furthermore it turns out that they also polled on 19th of December, from which I assume they, like the Politieke Barometer, are going to release a new poll every two weeks, but skipped one release due to Christmas and New Year.

The polls page has been updated with this information.

Polls swing from PVV to SP

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PVV, Polls, SP

Lots of news on the polls front. The PVV drops rather sharply, the SP rises accordingly, and TNS-NIPO starts polling — more or less.

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New Politieke Barometer poll

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Polls

The new Politieke Barometer poll is out; curiously not on the usual homepage, and the newspapers haven’t picked up on it, either. See the polls page for the overview.

Four seats change hands since last time, and the Right coalition that’s currently in power conquers back an absolute majority of 76 seats. D66 is again confirmed to be one seat larger than the CDA. 50Plus, the elderly party I still owe you an update about, disappears, though the pollster is careful to note it just barely didn’t make the threshold, so it might be back in two weeks.

Government poll

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Coalitions, Polls

Peil.nl released another poll together with the regular one. They asked about a possible fall of government, and what should happen next.

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New poll

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Polls

Peil.nl has released a new poll. Very boring; only two seats change hands. And Peil.nl continues to give the left far too many seats.

Still, take a look at the polls page. It has changed considerably, especially the coalition table. I now generate coalitions automatically since the curated list of the previous version got too big and unwieldy. I hope I found the right rules to keep the number of coalitions in check, and I’ll probably tweak them a little in future weeks.

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New poll; Mauro affair

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Polls

A few weeks back I promised to start keeping track of the polls again. When I entered the poll after that, my polling script broke for reasons still unknown, and it took me until today to fix it.

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Poll page

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Polls

I am once more keeping track of the polls. Right now Peil.nl publishes a poll every Sunday, and the Politieke Barometer every second Thursday.

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Exit poll

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Polls

Exit poll is in:

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Final Politieke Barometer poll; end of polling

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Polls

The Politieke Barometer has released its final poll which I’ve added to the polls page. With that polling is complete, and the polls page contains a final score.

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Final Peil.nl poll

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Polls

Peil.nl has released its final poll which I’ve added to the polls page.

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Final TNS-NIPO poll

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Polls

TNS-NIPO has released its final poll which I’ve added to the polls page.

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Poll

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Polls

Peil.nl has released new polls which I’ve added to the polls page.

This poll does not see the shift to the left that the Politieke Barometer reported. I have no direct explanation, except for the general difference in methodology between the two polls. We’ll see who’s right.

(Incidentally, you might notice that my Internet connection from Venice works fine. I expect to report the election results on Wednesday night, plus a little forecast.)

Left-wing undecideds decide; 6-seat shift

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Polls

The latest Politieke Barometer poll is out, and it reports nothing less than a six-seat shift to the left. This changes the polls page considerably.

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Yet another poll

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CDA, Polls, SP

Oh my, it seems Peil.nl is publishing a daily poll now. After yesterday’s poll, today brings a new one. I added it to the polls page but removed yesterday’s. Right now my system assumes all pollsters publish with roughly the same interval, and for now I want to retain that feature. (I’m afraid I won’t have the time to rewrite the polling page before the elections.)

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Two new polls

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PVV, Polls, SGP, SP

Peil.nl and TNS-NIPO have both released new polls, which I’ve added to the polls page.

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Comparing final polls to election results

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Polls

I found the last polling results from the 2002, 2003, and 2006 elections, and couldn’t resist studying them a bit better and comparing them to the eventual election outcome. Two trends emerged: one that I more-or-less expected and one that was a complete surprise.

The expected trend was that the polls did an excellent job of capturing the primary theme of an election cycle, but that a secondary, less important but still quite unexpected, theme surfaced in the actual elections.

The surprising trend was that relative to the last polls, the right block as a whole won three seats; two from the left and one from the christians. This happened both in 2003 and 2006, while in 2002 this last-minute shift was exactly twice as large.

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Coalition poll

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Coalitions, Polls

A pollster I haven’t previously heard of, Novum Nieuws, has released a coalition poll. Which coalition do voters prefer?

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New Politieke Barometer poll

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Polls

The Politieke Barometer has released its second poll this week, and I added it to the polls page. It’s the first poll after Wednesday’s debate.

With a lot of fantasy the new poll can be seen as evidence for my undecideds theory, but the effect is very slight and might easily fall within the margin of error. GL and SP both win one seat, while the PvdA loses one. On the right, the VVD wins one seat while CDA and PVV both lose one. That means one seat has gone from right to left. This is in line with what I predicted, but I was hoping for a clearer support of my theory, and you should feel free to believe the poll results are a coincidence.

Undecideds in the polls

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Polls

I mentioned this in my last poll report, but it deserves a separate entry. How do Dutch pollsters treat the undecideds? What does that mean?

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Cohen apologises for errors and changes

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Cohen, Polls, PvdA

This morning PvdA party leader Cohen apologised for the errors and vagueness surrounding the PvdA election programme and the amount of recent changes in it.

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New post-debate poll; next debate coming

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Polls

The new Politieke Barometer poll has landed, two days earlier than normal due to the debate, and I added it to the polls page.

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Polls and coalition update

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Coalitions, Polls

Last Friday the new Politieke Barometer poll landed and I added it to the polls page. I didn’t come around to discussing it yet.

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New Peil.nl poll

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Coalitions, Polls, PvdA, VVD

The new Peil.nl poll has landed and I added it to the polls page.

One seat from CDA to CU, one to the VVD from CDA, PvdA, and D66.

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TNS-NIPO really starts; changes to polls page

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Polls

Well, it seems the TNS NIPO poll has finally become a weekly feature. I’ve added it to the polls page.

This poll has always been a bit of an outlyer; while the other two show the CDA at 26 seats, TNS-NIPO gives it only 21 seats, and divides the difference among PVV, D66, and CU. Odd. This poll has the worst track record of the three, so believe what you want.

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Polls and new coalitions

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Coalitions, GL, Polls

Both Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer have published new polls, and I’ve added them to the polls page. I have also greatly increased the number of coalitions on the polls page.

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New polls

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Polls

Both Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer have published new polls, and I’ve added them to the polls page.

The VVD has become the second-largest party in the Politieke Barometer, too, celebrating that fact by taking another seat from the CDA. It’s clear now that the campaign will at least start as a PvdA vs. VVD fight. Nobody yet knows whether the CDA will knuckle under or stage yet another improbable comeback, but Balkenende’s party starts on the defensive.

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Polls, polls, polls — PvdA and VVD edition

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Coalitions, Polls, PvdA, VVD

Both Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer have published new polls, and I’ve added them to the polls page.

For the first time, the VVD is the second-largest party in both polls, being 3 or 1 seat larger than the CDA, respectively.

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Polls, polls, polls — coalitions and prime ministers

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Balkenende, CDA, Cohen, D66, GL, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, VVD, Wilders

Peil.nl had published a new poll in which respondents were asked for their wishes and expectations regarding coalitions and prime ministers. There are a few nuggets in here.

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New polls

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CDA, GL, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, VVD

Both Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer have published new polls, and I’ve added them to the polls page.

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New polls

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Balkenende, CDA, Coalitions, Cohen, D66, Polls, PvdA

I owe my readers an apology for not posting much last week. I was too busy doing other stuff, and besides Dutch politics are now in a relatively calm phase where relatively little is happening.

Anyway, both Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer have published new polls, and I’ve added them to the polls page.

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Polls, polls, polls — TNS-NIPO edition

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CDA, Coalitions, PVV, Polls, PvdA, VVD

The new Peil.nl poll has landed. Also, it seems TNS NIPO has finally started up election polling. In addition to yesterday’s release it turns out they conducted a poll about a month ago, but that one hasn’t been officially published. I added both to the polls page. I expect the new Politieke Barometer poll tonight.

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New Peil.nl poll

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CDA, D66, GL, PVV, Polls, PvdA, VVD

The new Peil.nl poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.

Here, too, there’s little change. PvdA wins two seats, one each from GL and D66, VVD also wins two seats, one each from CDA and PVV. Just like in Thursday’s Politieke Barometer the PVV starts to go down ever so slightly, the SP halts is downward trend, and the CDA vacillates but generally goes down. No change in left vs. right, but the broad centre (PvdA, D66, CDA, VVD) wins one seat from each of the flanks.

On my scoreboard the battle for second place after PvdA has started, and it’s exclusively between the three parties of the right. If the VVD captures two more seats from the CDA, it is the second-largest party of the country.

The Purple coalition rises some more (it contains both winners PvdA and VVD, after all), and is now at the same level as the coalition on the right.

An extra question was asked about the tax deductability of interest payments on mortgages.

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New Politieke Barometer poll

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CDA, CU, GL, PVV, Polls, SP, VVD

The new Politieke Barometer poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.

Not much to see; one seat from PVV to VVD, one from CDA to CU, one from GL to SP. The CDA is clearly not yet done with its slide, although the momentum has lessened. Conversely, we might see a PVV slide momentum building up. The SP seems to have hit the low point; this is the first time it has won a seat in any poll this year. The centre-left coalition lost one seat and goes back to 75.

I expect the polls to change only gradually in the next few weeks, unless something dramatic happens. The PvdA’s reward for blowing up government has now been accounted for; it’s the other parties’ move.

I do expect a few trends to surface. Has Wilders’s inevitable slide down to about 12-15 seats started yet? Will the CDA go down even more or stabilise? Will the left block win more seats from the right, or has equilibrium been reached?

An extra poll tells us something about how Dutch voters select a party. This topic has been discussed in the comments recently, and it’s nice to be able to show some figures.

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Polls, polls, polls — coalition edition

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CDA, Coalitions, Polls, PvdA, VVD

I just discovered that Peil.nl released another poll yesterday, about government formation.

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New Peil.nl poll

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Balkenende, CDA, Coalitions, Cohen, D66, GL, Leers, PVV, Polls, PvdA, VVD, Verhagen, Wilders

Oh my, the new Peil.nl poll has landed two days early. I’ve added it to the polls page.

The timing is surprising, the content isn’t. Basically it confirms Thursday’s poll in that the PvdA wins five seats, of which one comes from the right, two from D66, and one each from GL and SP. The centre-left PvdA+CDA+D66 coalition does not yet have a majority in this poll, but does win two seats.

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New Politieke Barometer poll

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Balkenende, CDA, Cohen, D66, Halsema, PVV, Pechtold, Polls, PvdA, Roemer, Rouvoet, Rutte, Thieme, ToN, VVD, Van der Staaij, Verdonk, Wilders

The new Politieke Barometer poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.

The PvdA won seven seats, and that’s really a lot for just one week. Even in my dampened-down average the PvdA is now four seats larger than the CDA. It’s clear that the appointment of Cohen has been an excellent move.

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New Peil.nl poll

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CDA, D66, Polls, PvdA, VVD

The new Peil.nl poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.

The most important change is that the PvdA continues to win (+3 this week), and that the incrowd parties PvdA, CDA, VVD, and D66 combined also win (+4 together). The latter is odd for Peil.nl, which generally tends to give extreme and small parties more seats than its competitors do.

In general Peil.nl is moving to the numbers the Politieke Barometer gives. Still, it’s too early to tell whether this means a true change in the electorate or a random fluctuation.

Polls, polls, polls — Cohen edition

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Balkenende, Cohen, Halsema, Pechtold, Polls, Rutte, Wilders

I’ve been neglecting the recent polls a bit. Each week, Peil.nl (Maurice de Hond) and the Politieke Barometer publish their ongoing general election polls (on Sunday and Thursday, respectively), and this are obviously prime data sources for any Dutch political blog.

Reason I’ve been neglecting them is that I was working on a polls and coalition overview, which is now finally finished. In the future I can give a brief overview of every new poll and refer you to this page for the details, as well as the poll trends.

The page also contains a coalition creation game, where you can try your hand at forming a stable majority coalition, and find out why it takes so bloody long.

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Small fry; 28 February

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Balkenende, Bos, CU, Cohen, D66, Eurlings, Halsema, Immigrants, Kant, Minor parties, PVV, Pechtold, Polls, Rouvoet, Rutte, Verdonk, Verhagen, Wilders

Some small fry that might be of interest to political observers:

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General election polls

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Polls

It’s time to take a look at some official elections polls. In the table below I’ve repeated the most recent polls of Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer (try translating that one for yourself). The third Dutch pollster, TNS NIPO, doesn’t seem to have started publishing parliament election polls yet.

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Polls, polls, polls

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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, Cohen, Eurlings, PVV, Polls, PvdA, Wilders

Oh my, Peil.nl has published more polls, and they consistently show that Bos’s gamble is still paying off.

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First poll — Bos wins, Balkenende loses

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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, Coalitions, Eurlings, Polls, PvdA, Wilders

Yesterday the first poll (PDF) since the fall of government was released, and broadly speaking it shows that Bos’s gamble is paying off — for now. The Dutch voters agree with him on both the policy and the politics side, and the PvdA is gaining seats once more.

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This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.

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