Political Quirks - CDA

Posts in the CDA category.
Part of Parties.

My grand theory of Dutch politics

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CDA, D66, PVV, PvdA, SP, VVD

Back in the good old days there were three parties: PvdA on the left, CDA in the centre, and VVD on the right.

From 1946 to 1994 the CDA (and its predecessor parties) sat in government and decided on a case-by-case basis whether to form a coalition with PvdA or VVD. Then the CDA itself started to belong to the right but that didn’t change its position in politics. It could go over left, and did so occasionally just to remind the VVD.

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Party profile — CDA

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CDA, Party profiles

The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore, just like in 2010, I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of winning seats. We’ll go from smallest to largest.

Today we’ll continue with the former natural leadership party CDA.

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Party leaders, moves to the flanks, and Europe

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50Plus, CDA, Europe, GL, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, VVD

Sorry for the long silence; I’ve been very busy first, very lazy afterwards. But here’s a quick round-up of what’s happened in the past few weeks.

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Week overview

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CDA, CU, D66, GL, PVV, PvdA, SP, VVD, Van Haersma Buma

This week was less hectic than last, but still plenty of things are happening.

There are two main items this week: the fall-out of the austerity agreement, and the CDA leadership election. But first, a sad anniversary.

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A spectacular week

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CDA, Coalitions, D66, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, Samsom, VVD, Van Haersma Buma, Verhagen

This week was a spectacular one in Dutch politics, with expectations starting very low but climbing to dizzying heights at the end of the week, after a five-party austerity agreement was reached. Winners: D66, CU, and maybe GL and CDA. Losers: PvdA and possibly the PVV.

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Wilders quits consultations; government falls; new elections

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CDA, PVV, Rutte, VVD, Wilders

This is just in: Geert Wilders has left the consultations with VVD and CDA, and government is in danger. We’ll likely have new elections in September or so.

Before continuing I’d like to thank all Dutch politicians for waiting for my homecoming before doing anything really spectacular. I’ve been in the US for the past three weeks, and have had no time for updates, even though interesting things have happened in Dutch politics. But the main item, Wilders basically retreating from the coalition, happened only just now.

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Even more CDA problems

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CDA, De Jager, Eurlings, Verhagen

The CDA continues to be in deep crisis. Recommendations for a partial reversal of the party course have leaked out, and a whole slew of party prominents, including Verhagen, have said they’re not available as party leader. Finally, the Limburg chapter threatens rebellion.

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The Rutte government and gedoogsteun

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CDA, Coalitions, PVV, Rutte, SGP, VVD, Wilders

So before it falls, let’s quickly describe the Rutte government now that it’s been in power for about a year and a half. The most important take-away for foreigners is that Geert Wilders does not sit in government. Instead he promised ... gedoogsteun.

We’ve run into a serious translation problem. I have found no directly equivalent English term for gedoogsteun. Still, some help from my Twitter followers unearthed the fact that both Canada and New Zealand have had a similar construct, but no specific name for it. Denmark, too, has made extensive use of gedoogsteun, but I don’t speak Danish and I doubt they translated their name for it into English.

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CDA leadership

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CDA, De Jager, Eurlings, Van Haersma Buma, Verhagen

Last week NRC ran a story about how Maxime Verhagen, economics minister and de-facto CDA leader, almost never showed up for crucial meetings in his party. This story is emblematic of the severe trouble the CDA is in right now.

(Unfortunately NRC has decided that a digital archive of news stories is not necessary, even though this particular story did appear online. Therefore I can’t link to it.)

So what exactly are the problems the CDA is facing? First of all it sank like a stone in the polls. Both pollsters now agree that it’s the sixth party in the country, after VVD, PVV, SP, PvdA, and D66, with 11 or 13 seats. That’s not good for the “natural” party of government.

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No right-wing government

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CDA, Formation, PVV, VVD

Informer Rosenthal has announced that he sees no possibility of getting a right-wing government. The CDA wants VVD and PVV to reach an agreement first, while the PVV demands that all three parties participate in the negotiations.

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Whose fault will it be?

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CDA, Formation, PVV, VVD

The negotiations for a right-wing VVD+PVV+CDA government have hardly gone on for a few days, and the participants are already positioning themselves to blame someone else if they fail. Right now Wilders is in a better position in the blame game, and that could be dangerous.

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Step 1: right-wing

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CDA, Formation, PVV, VVD

Well, it seems there will be negotiations for a right-wing coalition. As regular readers know I applaud this: let Wilders show how much (or little) interested in governing he is.

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Small fry, 10 June

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CDA, PVV, PvdA, ToN, Verhagen

Some minor points:

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Housekeeping, coalitions, and CDA leadership

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CDA, Coalitions, VVD

On Sunday 6 June I’ll leave for a holiday in Venice, from which I’ll return on Sunday 13 June. I will take my laptop and a brand-new dongle, so in theory I’ll have Internet access and will follow Dutch politics a bit. Before I leave I’ll give you an update on the likely coalition negotiations and the CDA leadership struggle.

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Yet another poll

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CDA, Polls, SP

Oh my, it seems Peil.nl is publishing a daily poll now. After yesterday’s poll, today brings a new one. I added it to the polls page but removed yesterday’s. Right now my system assumes all pollsters publish with roughly the same interval, and for now I want to retain that feature. (I’m afraid I won’t have the time to rewrite the polling page before the elections.)

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Small fry, 1 June

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CDA, Coalitions, D66, Wilders

Some minor points:

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Small fry, 31 May

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Balkenende, CDA, Cohen, Immigrants, PVV, PvdD

Some minor points:

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National Bash the Centre Parties Day

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Balkenende, CDA, CU, GL, Halsema, PvdA, Rouvoet

OK, it’s now officially National Bash the Centre Parties Day. After Rutte’s attacks this morning it’s now the CU’s turn. In an interview CU party leader Rouvoet and parliamentary leader Slob mercilessly attacked Balkenende’s performance as prime minister. Meanwhile GL leader Halsema attacked both CDA and PvdA generically.

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Rutte attacks CDA

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Balkenende, CDA, PvdA, Rutte, VVD

In an interview with the news site nu.nl VVD leader Rutte opened the attack on the CDA.

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Know your coalitions — Centre-left

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CDA, Coalitions, D66, PvdA

In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)

Today we close off with Centre-left.

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Jack de Vries resigns

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CDA

Last Friday secretary of state of Defense Jack de Vries (CDA) resigned over his affair with his adjutant. It turns out De Vries has been conducting an affair with her for a while, and his wife has kicked him out of the house. Earlier last week, when the affair became known, he announced that he would end his political life after the elections, but after pressure was brought on him by the military trade unions (as well as, one assumes, his own party, with the annual CDA Family Day approaching), he decided to resign immediately.

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Where we stand now

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CDA, CU, D66, GL, Local elections, PVV, PvdA, PvdD, SGP, SP, ToN, VVD

In the past six weeks or so I haven’t been as active on this blog as I’d planned, but in the end this is a personal side project that I either have time for or don’t. Fortunately the past weeks were also relatively quiet on the political front. The local elections have run their course, and the parties are now gearing up for the general elections.

The campaign will start in two weeks or so, because late April/early May features a few Dutch-only holidays: Queen’s Day on 30 April, Remembrance Day on 4 May, and Liberation Day on 5 May. (The latter two both celebrate our liberation from the nazis in 1945). Besides, there’s a two-week school holiday right now, and many voters are abroad on some beach or so. Little sense in starting up your campaign now.

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Polls, polls, polls — coalitions and prime ministers

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Balkenende, CDA, Cohen, D66, GL, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, VVD, Wilders

Peil.nl had published a new poll in which respondents were asked for their wishes and expectations regarding coalitions and prime ministers. There are a few nuggets in here.

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New polls

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CDA, GL, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, VVD

Both Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer have published new polls, and I’ve added them to the polls page.

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Quick update — Den Haag

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CDA, D66, GL, Local elections, PVV, PvdA, VVD

Because I’ve been unable to work on this blog last week we’ve got a backlog of interesting stuff. So I’ll run a series of quick updates on a variety of topics.

First the local negotiations in Den Haag.

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New polls

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Balkenende, CDA, Coalitions, Cohen, D66, Polls, PvdA

I owe my readers an apology for not posting much last week. I was too busy doing other stuff, and besides Dutch politics are now in a relatively calm phase where relatively little is happening.

Anyway, both Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer have published new polls, and I’ve added them to the polls page.

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Know your coalitions — Centre-right

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CDA, Coalitions, D66, VVD

In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)

Today we continue with Centre-right.

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Know your coalitions — Right

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CDA, Coalitions, PVV, VVD

In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)

Today we continue with Right.

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Polls, polls, polls — TNS-NIPO edition

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CDA, Coalitions, PVV, Polls, PvdA, VVD

The new Peil.nl poll has landed. Also, it seems TNS NIPO has finally started up election polling. In addition to yesterday’s release it turns out they conducted a poll about a month ago, but that one hasn’t been officially published. I added both to the polls page. I expect the new Politieke Barometer poll tonight.

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Small fry, 30 March

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CDA, CU, D66, Immigrants, Minor parties, PVV, PvdD, SGP, Van der Staaij, Wilders

Some small fry from the past ten days that might be of interest to political observers:

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Balkenende continues to go down

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Balkenende, CDA, Leers

Things are not good for prime minister and CDA party leader Balkenende. Although he still has the official support of the party, rumblings are starting among the rank and file. Besides, a serious successor has made his way to the top.

A while ago I reported that a CDA backbencher expressed her doubts about Balkenende, doubts that were mirrored by the provincial party barons. It’s time for an update.

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New Peil.nl poll

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CDA, D66, GL, PVV, Polls, PvdA, VVD

The new Peil.nl poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.

Here, too, there’s little change. PvdA wins two seats, one each from GL and D66, VVD also wins two seats, one each from CDA and PVV. Just like in Thursday’s Politieke Barometer the PVV starts to go down ever so slightly, the SP halts is downward trend, and the CDA vacillates but generally goes down. No change in left vs. right, but the broad centre (PvdA, D66, CDA, VVD) wins one seat from each of the flanks.

On my scoreboard the battle for second place after PvdA has started, and it’s exclusively between the three parties of the right. If the VVD captures two more seats from the CDA, it is the second-largest party of the country.

The Purple coalition rises some more (it contains both winners PvdA and VVD, after all), and is now at the same level as the coalition on the right.

An extra question was asked about the tax deductability of interest payments on mortgages.

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New Politieke Barometer poll

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CDA, CU, GL, PVV, Polls, SP, VVD

The new Politieke Barometer poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.

Not much to see; one seat from PVV to VVD, one from CDA to CU, one from GL to SP. The CDA is clearly not yet done with its slide, although the momentum has lessened. Conversely, we might see a PVV slide momentum building up. The SP seems to have hit the low point; this is the first time it has won a seat in any poll this year. The centre-left coalition lost one seat and goes back to 75.

I expect the polls to change only gradually in the next few weeks, unless something dramatic happens. The PvdA’s reward for blowing up government has now been accounted for; it’s the other parties’ move.

I do expect a few trends to surface. Has Wilders’s inevitable slide down to about 12-15 seats started yet? Will the CDA go down even more or stabilise? Will the left block win more seats from the right, or has equilibrium been reached?

An extra poll tells us something about how Dutch voters select a party. This topic has been discussed in the comments recently, and it’s nice to be able to show some figures.

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Know your coalitions — overview

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CDA, Coalitions, D66, GL, PVV, PvdA, SP, VVD

In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)

Today we’ll start with a broad overview. Separate posts will discuss each of the five most likely coalitions.

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Polls, polls, polls — coalition edition

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CDA, Coalitions, Polls, PvdA, VVD

I just discovered that Peil.nl released another poll yesterday, about government formation.

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New Peil.nl poll

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Balkenende, CDA, Coalitions, Cohen, D66, GL, Leers, PVV, Polls, PvdA, VVD, Verhagen, Wilders

Oh my, the new Peil.nl poll has landed two days early. I’ve added it to the polls page.

The timing is surprising, the content isn’t. Basically it confirms Thursday’s poll in that the PvdA wins five seats, of which one comes from the right, two from D66, and one each from GL and SP. The centre-left PvdA+CDA+D66 coalition does not yet have a majority in this poll, but does win two seats.

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New Politieke Barometer poll

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Balkenende, CDA, Cohen, D66, Halsema, PVV, Pechtold, Polls, PvdA, Roemer, Rouvoet, Rutte, Thieme, ToN, VVD, Van der Staaij, Verdonk, Wilders

The new Politieke Barometer poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.

The PvdA won seven seats, and that’s really a lot for just one week. Even in my dampened-down average the PvdA is now four seats larger than the CDA. It’s clear that the appointment of Cohen has been an excellent move.

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Balkenende’s twilight

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Balkenende, CDA, Eurlings, Leers, Rouvoet, Van Geel, Verhagen

The past few weeks have not been easy for prime minister and CDA party leader Balkenende. The next weeks promise to be worse.

Balkenende had his fourth government blown up beneath him by the PvdA, and the CDA was generally seen as the culpable party. Although he was reconfirmed as party leader with remarkable speed, he was also critcised for that from day one. Besides, one CDA prominent after another is leaving politics.

Balkenende’s position is getting worse and worse.

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New Peil.nl poll

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CDA, D66, Polls, PvdA, VVD

The new Peil.nl poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.

The most important change is that the PvdA continues to win (+3 this week), and that the incrowd parties PvdA, CDA, VVD, and D66 combined also win (+4 together). The latter is odd for Peil.nl, which generally tends to give extreme and small parties more seats than its competitors do.

In general Peil.nl is moving to the numbers the Politieke Barometer gives. Still, it’s too early to tell whether this means a true change in the electorate or a random fluctuation.

The politics of succession; CDA and PvdA editions

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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, Cohen, Eurlings, PvdA, Verhagen

In the series “I did not see this coming,“ two major leadership developments yesterday and today, one each for CDA and PvdA. Besides, one death in the family.

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The Almere formation

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CDA, Local elections, PVV, PvdA, VVD

Curiously, right now the major Dutch newspapers, except for De Telegraaf, are all but ignoring the single most important story in Dutch politics right now: the Almere formation. An update is in order.

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Developments; 7 March

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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, Local elections, PvdA, Roemer, SP, VVD, Wilders

More details about several unfolding political stories: the prime-minister race, Balkenende’s continuing stability problems, a PvdA+CDA coalition, new SP party leader Roemer, and the local government negotiations in Almere and Rotterdam.

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The local elections and their consequences

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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, D66, Debates, GL, Halsema, Kant, Local elections, PVV, Pechtold, PvdA, Roemer, Rutte, SP, ToN, VVD, Verdonk, Wilders

On Wednesday Dutch voted for their local councils, and the result is interesting. SP leader Kant resigns, Wilders’s PVV the largest party in one city, PvdA and CDA lose, D66 wins.

Before we continue, one housekeeping note: I will be away for the weekend, and there will be no updates to this blog. Publication will resume on Monday.

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Small fry; 2 March

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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, CU, PVV, PvdA, Rouvoet, ToN, VVD, Van Geel, Verhagen, Wilders

Some small fry that might be of interest to political observers:

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Polls, polls, polls

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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, Cohen, Eurlings, PVV, Polls, PvdA, Wilders

Oh my, Peil.nl has published more polls, and they consistently show that Bos’s gamble is still paying off.

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Small fry; 25 February

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Balkenende, CDA, CU, Eurlings, Rouvoet

Some small fry that might be interesting to political observers:

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Party profile — CDA

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Balkenende, CDA, Eurlings, Party profiles, Verhagen

The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore I’m going to run a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of getting seats in the upcoming elections. We’ll go from largest to smallest.

Today we’ll start with the largest Dutch party, the CDA.

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First poll — Bos wins, Balkenende loses

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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, Coalitions, Eurlings, Polls, PvdA, Wilders

Yesterday the first poll (PDF) since the fall of government was released, and broadly speaking it shows that Bos’s gamble is paying off — for now. The Dutch voters agree with him on both the policy and the politics side, and the PvdA is gaining seats once more.

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Dutch government falls over Afghanistan

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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, CU, PvdA, Verhagen

The Balkenende IV government (i.e. the fourth government that Balkenende (CDA) was prime minister of) was formed three years ago and consists of centre-right CDA (christian-democrats), centre-left PvdA (Labour), and orthodox-protestant left-leaning CU (Union of Christians). Yesterday evening the PvdA ministers resigned over a conflict about the continuing Dutch military presence in the Afghan province of Uruzgan.

In a week and a half local elections will be held, and the PvdA was slated to lose a lot of seats everywhere. PvdA party leader and finance minister Bos clearly hopes to stem the electoral tide by his resignation, and he might well be right.

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This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.

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