Informer Rosenthal has announced that he sees no possibility of getting a right-wing government. The CDA wants VVD and PVV to reach an agreement first, while the PVV demands that all three parties participate in the negotiations.
Much as I hate to say it, Wilders is right. There’s no precedent for the CDA’s behaviour. Refusing a coalition outright, sure, that’s happened before. Talking for months only to conclude that an agreement cannot be reached, no problem — that happened in 1977. But it has never become clear whether the CDA wanted the coalition or not, and if it didn’t want it, it should have said so clearly.
Instead, Verhagen hoped to keep the CDA left and right together by doing nothing except making curious demands. It’s clear that the blame for the failed negotiations must lie with the CDA.
It’s also clear that a perfect chance to stop Wilders has been wasted by the christian-democrats. We’ll never know now, but my gut feeling remains that Wilders secretly didn’t want to enter the coalition, preferring the opposition. He’s got what he wanted now, and he’s also able to blame somebody else.
Dammit. CDA must die.
Anyway, tomorrow Rosenthal will probably announce what he’s going to do next. Let’s all agree to act surprised when the next step turns out to be Purple-green.
<— Provincial scores | Formation status —>
This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.
Archives:
2 Posted by CTerry on 17 June 2010 | Permalink
It appears that Rosenthal is starting negotiations between five parties: VVD, PvdA, CDA, D66 and GL. The seeming aim is to attempt to negotiate a forbidden or purple plus coalition. This is essentially negotiating two coalitions at once. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this unprecendented?
3 Posted by Bryan on 18 June 2010 | Permalink
"Lijsttrekker Nullification"
or whatever you call it in Holland, meaning: the right of party leaders to refuse to participate in minority lead Cabinets even if it is the desire of the party receiving the most votes.
Well it works. Yesterday CDA invokes, to end the charade that a right-wing government could be formed.
Today Cohen invokes Lijsttrekker Nullification to end discussions of the forbidden coalition.
Quite frankly, I think Cohen was right to exclude the prospects of CDA working with PvdA.
Does everyone agree Rutte's only choice is to go Paars Plus (Purple-Green) or is there a fourth option?
Finally, I find the Purple-Plus label is used by Cohen, while GL probably prefers the Purple-Green label. If Cohen gets his way, I really think GL will make enough of a difference in the negotiations to deserve the Purple-Green moniker.
4 Posted by CTerry on 19 June 2010 | Permalink
I've personally always said that I thought that Purple-Plus was inevitable given the election result, it is clearly the most viable option for all involved. The attempts at right wing and forbidden coalitions were really just there to prove that such coalitions wouldn't work in my view, the moment the Dutch political elite woke up the morning after the election they all knew it was going to be Purple Plus. The real coalition negotiations will start now. They will be lengthy due to the level of issues in contention between the parties but I expect to see a government in place by mid-July. I expect to see:
- Big cuts in public spending overall. I expect to see the budget more closely match VVD than PvdA demands.
-Protection for education spending (D66)
-An expanded environmental budget and a more environmentalist policy in general
-A big welfare reform, possibly modelled on Denmark's flexicurity system (A GL policy that is likely to find sympathy in the other 3 parties)
-Democratic reform (abolition of the Senate? Binding referenda? Directly elected mayors/PM?)
-A focus on a more multicultural Dutch society. This will be against Cohen's interest and desire, but he will have the other 3 against him.
5 Posted by CTerry on 19 June 2010 | Permalink
I've personally always said that I thought that Purple-Plus was inevitable given the election result, it is clearly the most viable option for all involved. The attempts at right wing and forbidden coalitions were really just there to prove that such coalitions wouldn't work in my view, the moment the Dutch political elite woke up the morning after the election they all knew it was going to be Purple Plus. The real coalition negotiations will start now. They will be lengthy due to the level of issues in contention between the parties but I expect to see a government in place by mid-July. I expect to see:
- Big cuts in public spending overall. I expect to see the budget more closely match VVD than PvdA demands.
-Protection for education spending (D66)
-An expanded environmental budget and a more environmentalist policy in general
-A big welfare reform, possibly modelled on Denmark's flexicurity system (A GL policy that is likely to find sympathy in the other 3 parties)
-Democratic reform (abolition of the Senate? Binding referenda? Directly elected mayors/PM?)
-A focus on a more multicultural Dutch society. This will be against Rutte's interest and desire, but he will have the other 3 against him.
6 Posted by Bryan on 21 June 2010 | Permalink
Well, not sure who is in the “Dutch political elite”. Pechtold is very politically astute and started talking about the “Purple Plus” option weeks before the election because he likes and wants in the next Cabinet.
Somewhat surprised Cohen is so insecure that he needs to reward the two parties (D66+GL) who pulled votes and prevented him from becoming the next Prime Minister. Actually, Bos had a much better grasp on the economy than Cohen has shown so far.
A total guess, but Cohen knows he is out-classed on matters of the economy and wants Pechtold to share the glory or blame with Rutte with the next budget, he wants none thing to do with it.
7 Posted by CTerry on 21 June 2010 | Permalink
The Dutch political elite = the majority of party leaders, MPs, prominent party officials etc.
Pechtold isn't particularly politically astute, D66 will always aim for Purple if it can because it removes the CDA from government which pleases their secularism and because they view themselves as liberal (like the VVD) and progressive (like the PvdA). The purple coalition of the 1990s was the one which most closely matched D66 policy because of its position in the cabinet (in the centre).
For the same reasons both Cohen and Rutte will want D66 in the coalition. When the 1998 election gave the PvdA and VVD a majority they still invited D66 into the government. D66 is essential to the formation of a purple coalition. They are the glue that holds purple together. (Incidentally D66 has occasionally provided this role in CDA/PvdA coalitions, and I would argue that the CU provided this role in the last government). Of course you need another party for government to work, and GL is the only practical choice. The CDA isn't an option, SP is too left-wing for the VVD, and is still not really ready for government, CU and D66 won't work, PVV is out etc. All roads point to Purple Plus innit.
8 Posted by CTerry on 21 June 2010 | Permalink
Incidentally despite their supposed junior position in the cabinet I suspect that GL and D66 will punch above their weight in the new coalition because they will be the arbiters of disputes between the two senior partners.
9 Posted by CTerry on 22 June 2010 | Permalink
To my absolute (and clear) shock Purple seems to have collapsed. Indeed it sounds like any VVD + PvdA combination is out. I am having a huge problem seeing where a workable coalition now lies. Is there any possibility that this was a tactic by Cohen to get more of his demands?
10 Posted by Bryan on 22 June 2010 | Permalink
The Dutchnews.nl site provides the following quotes from different prospective Purple-Plus leaders followed by admittedly sarcstic observations of my own in parentheses:
Cohen: "I was open to everything" (except what Rutte really desired, namely including CDA in the negotiations)
Femke: Who told reporters she was "very fed up" (spoken like a party leader who has never managed to manuveur into the cabinet and probably won't with that type of attitude), and
Pechtold: Who said he was "disappointed" (a factually accurate statement spoken by a politically astute party leader who know there is no value to blame or implicitly disparage others for the setback of Purple-Plus until after a government has been formed)
I certainly look forward to PPK's next post on this subject.
11 Posted by Sander on 22 June 2010 | Permalink
"Very fed up" is a horrible translation of what Femke Halsema is constantly being quoted as having said in Dutch. "Totally bummed out" would be closer, though it's still not more than in the general neighbourhood. Hard to accurately catch the sentiment in colloquialisms like that.
12 Posted by Bryan on 22 June 2010 | Permalink
O.K. some of my sarcasm toward Femke if she said she was "Totally bummed out" is undeserved.
I still remain under-whelmed with some of the rhetoric attributed to Femke, but until your post have to admit I never considered some of her statements may have been lost or mischaracterized by virtue of translation. Thanks for the clarification. My only source was the webiste Dutchnew.nl
13 Posted by Bryan on 23 June 2010 | Permalink
5 Parties: Minority Cabinet (Danish style) or impasse
(1) Cohen suggestion of VVD, PvdA, CDA, D66 + GL demonstrates his municipal bureaucratic background. Ja, that might work if you have to figure out what streets to re-pave in Amsterdam but even D66 + GL knows that 5 parties is no solution for good national governance.
Does anyone still have Cohen down as Prime Minister Material?
(2) Minority Cabinet (Danish style), more posts are starting to talk about it. Probably a more workable solution than 5 parties. Is this the perfect solution for Wilders? Essentially, “we listen when we can, but when you go rogue we remind everyone you are in opposition,
(3) Impasse – not until Rosenthal quits and he doesn’t sound like an early quitter.
14 Posted by CTerry on 23 June 2010 | Permalink
I suspect Rutte has personally ruled out a minority government for the reason that this means doing a whole lot of wheeling and dealing whenever budget time comes up. Given the financial situation and Rutte's desire to see the deficit dealt with plus the inherent instability of minority governance. It is worth remembering that Danish minority governance works due to very particular institutional rules (particularly negative parliamentarism).
A five party coalition is too big. However I can possibly see the PvdA refusing to do a Grand Coalition without another left-of-centre party on board. My assumption would be that the obvious choice would be GL as its economics are clearly to the left of D66's, but its more willing to make concessions than the SP, which I simply can't see anywhere near any government that the VVD is involved in.
Do any Dutch folk think fresh elections are possible given the obvious difficulties?
15 Posted by Abi Sutherland on 24 June 2010 | Permalink
Bryan, out of curiosity, why are you referring to male politicians by their surnames, but the one woman by her first name?
Absent some explanation, it comes across as fairly disrespectful.
16 Posted by Bryan on 25 June 2010 | Permalink
Femke is the most distinctive first name of your political leaders. I would equate my use of Femke to the rather common use of Barack on blogs in the U.S. for Obama.
I also think I used Jan Peter in a couple of early posts. Unfortunately, the election results now make it unnecessary to use his first, middle, or last name anytime soon.
Finally, you are correct; my general impression of Halsema is that she is not one of the better party leaders. If I’m missing something, do tell why you think she should be a member of the next Cabinet.
17 Posted by Abi Sutherland on 25 June 2010 | Permalink
Bryan -
It's not that I don't think you have grounds to think Halsema's not a good politician, though she's led GL pretty ably. Moving a small witness party this close to government is a complex balancing act; I think you discount that too readily.
It's that using her first name in the thicket of male last name makes you sound like a sexist. Using Obama as an example is...not helping the overall view either, though I'll take your word that you referred to a white male by his first name at some point.
I don't know if you are a sexist, but I do know that if you're writing to persuade, you're losing me--and other readers, I bet--on something peripheral to your point. There are other ways of showing your contempt of people that don't carry that freight.
18 Posted by Abi Sutherland on 25 June 2010 | Permalink
Bryan,
On consideration, I'd say the moment I went "huh?" was the contrast between your use of "Femke" and your question "Does anyone still have Cohen down as Prime Minister Material?"
Why didn't you call him Job?
19 Posted by Abi Sutherland on 25 June 2010 | Permalink
Why this matters in this context: thanks to Wilders, this election is partly about how we deal with people we regard as "other", people not like us.
Do we judge them more harshly than we do people we feel we're more like, based on whatever criteria: race, religion, gender, sexual orientation? Do we apply steeper or different penalties, such as contempt rather than criticism, to them when we do disapprove of them? Do these tendencies, which are baked into human nature, lead to a better society, or should we watch them and try to control them?
20 Posted by Bryan on 25 June 2010 | Permalink
Bad word play, like "Yes we Cohen", "No he Couldn't" are hard to give up.
More to the point though, if Rutte fails to make progress I can see "Job for Job One" becoming a possibility.
1 Posted by Bryan on 17 June 2010 | Permalink
Agreed, CDA asking for a Congress of Membership shows lack of leadership.
Disagree about CDA's overall usefulness as a Centrist Party in Dutch politics. It is very beneficial to have a release valve like CDA, so not everyone has to be so polarized at the same time. Who knows perhaps the eventual new leader for CDA will earn more respect.
.
Yes, CDA screwed up but it helps Rutte with Purple-Green or my preference, Amsterdam-Protestant or the improbable coalition of Right-Red-Reformed. Let's face it, if Rutte could work out a budget with SP, everyone would have to accept the Parties thoroughly analyzed all of the options to address the economic downturn.