Political Quirks - VVD

Posts in the VVD category.
Part of Parties.

Illegal immigration

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CU, PvdA, VVD

In 2012, when VVD and PvdA negotiated their coalition, it was decided that being an illegal immigrant would in itself become a punishable offence. So far, illegal immigrants could be sent back to their country, but the fact that they were present in the Netherlands was not a crime. The VVD aimed at changing this, and eventually the PvdA agreed in exchange for social-economic concessions.

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The Amsterdam formation

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Coalitions, D66, Local elections, SP, VVD

Like in all Dutch cities and communities, Amsterdam is in the throes of local negotiations to form the new city government. In Amsterdam D66 won a surprisingly large victory, 7 to 14 seats, while traditional power party PvdA dropped from 15 to 10. Thus D66 has the initiative, and Rinnooy Kan, a D66 member who was previously chairman of the prestigious Social-Economic Council, was appointed informer.

Today he unveiled his first report: at the moment it seems we’re headed for a surprising D66+SP+VVD coalition. This is not yet final; anything can change, and it’s not a combination local politics watchers considered likely, but it’s where we are now. Source: Parool.

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Preliminary election results

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Coalitions, Election results, PvdA, VVD

Preliminary election results:

  1. VVD: 41
  2. PvdA: 39
  3. SP: 15
  4. PVV: 15
  5. CDA: 13
  6. D66: 12
  7. CU: 5
  8. GL: 3
  9. SGP: 3
  10. 50Plus: 2
  11. PvdD: 2

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My grand theory of Dutch politics

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CDA, D66, PVV, PvdA, SP, VVD

Back in the good old days there were three parties: PvdA on the left, CDA in the centre, and VVD on the right.

From 1946 to 1994 the CDA (and its predecessor parties) sat in government and decided on a case-by-case basis whether to form a coalition with PvdA or VVD. Then the CDA itself started to belong to the right but that didn’t change its position in politics. It could go over left, and did so occasionally just to remind the VVD.

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Polls and the prime-minister race

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Polls, SP, VVD

Although I’ve been silent for a long time I have kept track of the polls, which show a clear advantage for SP and VVD, with the rest of the parties trailing behind. Today I added a feature: a calculation of pollster errors in the 2002-2010 elections, which serves to understand why the Politieke Barometer is the most reliable poll.

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Party leaders, moves to the flanks, and Europe

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50Plus, CDA, Europe, GL, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, VVD

Sorry for the long silence; I’ve been very busy first, very lazy afterwards. But here’s a quick round-up of what’s happened in the past few weeks.

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Week overview

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CDA, CU, D66, GL, PVV, PvdA, SP, VVD, Van Haersma Buma

This week was less hectic than last, but still plenty of things are happening.

There are two main items this week: the fall-out of the austerity agreement, and the CDA leadership election. But first, a sad anniversary.

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A spectacular week

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CDA, Coalitions, D66, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, Samsom, VVD, Van Haersma Buma, Verhagen

This week was a spectacular one in Dutch politics, with expectations starting very low but climbing to dizzying heights at the end of the week, after a five-party austerity agreement was reached. Winners: D66, CU, and maybe GL and CDA. Losers: PvdA and possibly the PVV.

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Wilders quits consultations; government falls; new elections

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CDA, PVV, Rutte, VVD, Wilders

This is just in: Geert Wilders has left the consultations with VVD and CDA, and government is in danger. We’ll likely have new elections in September or so.

Before continuing I’d like to thank all Dutch politicians for waiting for my homecoming before doing anything really spectacular. I’ve been in the US for the past three weeks, and have had no time for updates, even though interesting things have happened in Dutch politics. But the main item, Wilders basically retreating from the coalition, happened only just now.

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New Peil.nl poll; SP marching on

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PVV, Polls, SP, VVD

The new Peil.nl poll has been released and I added it to the polls page. In addition, Peil.nl released some extra polling focused on the SP.

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The Rutte government and gedoogsteun

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CDA, Coalitions, PVV, Rutte, SGP, VVD, Wilders

So before it falls, let’s quickly describe the Rutte government now that it’s been in power for about a year and a half. The most important take-away for foreigners is that Geert Wilders does not sit in government. Instead he promised ... gedoogsteun.

We’ve run into a serious translation problem. I have found no directly equivalent English term for gedoogsteun. Still, some help from my Twitter followers unearthed the fact that both Canada and New Zealand have had a similar construct, but no specific name for it. Denmark, too, has made extensive use of gedoogsteun, but I don’t speak Danish and I doubt they translated their name for it into English.

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Purple-plus becomes “necessary”

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D66, Formation, GL, PvdA, VVD

Well, it seems VVD leader Rutte is no longer rejecting the Purple-Plus VVD+PvdA+D66+GL coalition. Commentators expect the next few days of Tjeenk Willink’s informership to be spent on exploring this possibility further.

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No right-wing government

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CDA, Formation, PVV, VVD

Informer Rosenthal has announced that he sees no possibility of getting a right-wing government. The CDA wants VVD and PVV to reach an agreement first, while the PVV demands that all three parties participate in the negotiations.

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Whose fault will it be?

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CDA, Formation, PVV, VVD

The negotiations for a right-wing VVD+PVV+CDA government have hardly gone on for a few days, and the participants are already positioning themselves to blame someone else if they fail. Right now Wilders is in a better position in the blame game, and that could be dangerous.

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Step 1: right-wing

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CDA, Formation, PVV, VVD

Well, it seems there will be negotiations for a right-wing coalition. As regular readers know I applaud this: let Wilders show how much (or little) interested in governing he is.

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Housekeeping, coalitions, and CDA leadership

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CDA, Coalitions, VVD

On Sunday 6 June I’ll leave for a holiday in Venice, from which I’ll return on Sunday 13 June. I will take my laptop and a brand-new dongle, so in theory I’ll have Internet access and will follow Dutch politics a bit. Before I leave I’ll give you an update on the likely coalition negotiations and the CDA leadership struggle.

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New Peil.nl poll

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Coalitions, Polls, PvdA, VVD

The new Peil.nl poll has landed and I added it to the polls page.

One seat from CDA to CU, one to the VVD from CDA, PvdA, and D66.

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Rutte attacks CDA

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Balkenende, CDA, PvdA, Rutte, VVD

In an interview with the news site nu.nl VVD leader Rutte opened the attack on the CDA.

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PvdA economists praise VVD programme

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Coalitions, PvdA, VVD

In the series “curiouser and curiouser” today we see the unusual sight of two PvdA economists praising the VVD economic programme.

The two, Vermeend and Van der Ploeg, state that it’s the VVD programme that will deliver the best results when it comes to economic growth, employment, and reducing the deficit. They also like the D66 programme, stating that it works well in the short run (but not, apparently, the long run). In contrast, they cannot yet judge the PvdA and CDA programmes because they contain insufficient figures, so their effect cannot yet be calculated.
(Source: Volkskrant)

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Where we stand now

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CDA, CU, D66, GL, Local elections, PVV, PvdA, PvdD, SGP, SP, ToN, VVD

In the past six weeks or so I haven’t been as active on this blog as I’d planned, but in the end this is a personal side project that I either have time for or don’t. Fortunately the past weeks were also relatively quiet on the political front. The local elections have run their course, and the parties are now gearing up for the general elections.

The campaign will start in two weeks or so, because late April/early May features a few Dutch-only holidays: Queen’s Day on 30 April, Remembrance Day on 4 May, and Liberation Day on 5 May. (The latter two both celebrate our liberation from the nazis in 1945). Besides, there’s a two-week school holiday right now, and many voters are abroad on some beach or so. Little sense in starting up your campaign now.

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Polls, polls, polls — PvdA and VVD edition

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Coalitions, Polls, PvdA, VVD

Both Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer have published new polls, and I’ve added them to the polls page.

For the first time, the VVD is the second-largest party in both polls, being 3 or 1 seat larger than the CDA, respectively.

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Polls, polls, polls — coalitions and prime ministers

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Balkenende, CDA, Cohen, D66, GL, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, VVD, Wilders

Peil.nl had published a new poll in which respondents were asked for their wishes and expectations regarding coalitions and prime ministers. There are a few nuggets in here.

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New polls

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CDA, GL, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, VVD

Both Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer have published new polls, and I’ve added them to the polls page.

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Negotiations to watch — Amsterdam

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D66, GL, Local elections, PvdA, VVD

When I started the Negotiations to Watch series I didn’t think the Amsterdam negotiations would bear watching. However, they have evolved into a curious situation that has the potential to hurt D66.

So an extra Amsterdam bulletin is in order. Besides, monitoring such negotiations will be a useful practice run for June and July, when this blog will mainly discuss the national coalition negotiations.

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Quick update — Den Haag

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CDA, D66, GL, Local elections, PVV, PvdA, VVD

Because I’ve been unable to work on this blog last week we’ve got a backlog of interesting stuff. So I’ll run a series of quick updates on a variety of topics.

First the local negotiations in Den Haag.

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Know your coalitions — Purple

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Coalitions, D66, PvdA, VVD

In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)

Today we continue with Purple.

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Negotiations to watch — Den Haag

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D66, Local elections, PVV, PvdA, VVD, Wilders

It’s time to return to the local coalition negotiations in Rotterdam, Almere, and Den Haag. All three are unusual in that a large right-wing party (Leefbaar Rotterdam and twice Wilders’s PVV) challenges the might of the local PvdA.

Besides, monitoring these negotiations will be a useful practice run for June and July, when this blog will mainly discuss the national coalition negotiations.

Today we close off with Den Haag.

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Know your coalitions — Centre-right

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CDA, Coalitions, D66, VVD

In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)

Today we continue with Centre-right.

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Know your coalitions — Right

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CDA, Coalitions, PVV, VVD

In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)

Today we continue with Right.

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Polls, polls, polls — TNS-NIPO edition

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CDA, Coalitions, PVV, Polls, PvdA, VVD

The new Peil.nl poll has landed. Also, it seems TNS NIPO has finally started up election polling. In addition to yesterday’s release it turns out they conducted a poll about a month ago, but that one hasn’t been officially published. I added both to the polls page. I expect the new Politieke Barometer poll tonight.

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New Peil.nl poll

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CDA, D66, GL, PVV, Polls, PvdA, VVD

The new Peil.nl poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.

Here, too, there’s little change. PvdA wins two seats, one each from GL and D66, VVD also wins two seats, one each from CDA and PVV. Just like in Thursday’s Politieke Barometer the PVV starts to go down ever so slightly, the SP halts is downward trend, and the CDA vacillates but generally goes down. No change in left vs. right, but the broad centre (PvdA, D66, CDA, VVD) wins one seat from each of the flanks.

On my scoreboard the battle for second place after PvdA has started, and it’s exclusively between the three parties of the right. If the VVD captures two more seats from the CDA, it is the second-largest party of the country.

The Purple coalition rises some more (it contains both winners PvdA and VVD, after all), and is now at the same level as the coalition on the right.

An extra question was asked about the tax deductability of interest payments on mortgages.

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New Politieke Barometer poll

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CDA, CU, GL, PVV, Polls, SP, VVD

The new Politieke Barometer poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.

Not much to see; one seat from PVV to VVD, one from CDA to CU, one from GL to SP. The CDA is clearly not yet done with its slide, although the momentum has lessened. Conversely, we might see a PVV slide momentum building up. The SP seems to have hit the low point; this is the first time it has won a seat in any poll this year. The centre-left coalition lost one seat and goes back to 75.

I expect the polls to change only gradually in the next few weeks, unless something dramatic happens. The PvdA’s reward for blowing up government has now been accounted for; it’s the other parties’ move.

I do expect a few trends to surface. Has Wilders’s inevitable slide down to about 12-15 seats started yet? Will the CDA go down even more or stabilise? Will the left block win more seats from the right, or has equilibrium been reached?

An extra poll tells us something about how Dutch voters select a party. This topic has been discussed in the comments recently, and it’s nice to be able to show some figures.

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Know your coalitions — overview

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CDA, Coalitions, D66, GL, PVV, PvdA, SP, VVD

In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)

Today we’ll start with a broad overview. Separate posts will discuss each of the five most likely coalitions.

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Negotiations to watch — Almere

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Local elections, PVV, PvdA, VVD

It’s time to return to the local coalition negotiations in Rotterdam, Almere, and Den Haag. All three are unusual in that a large right-wing party (Leefbaar Rotterdam and twice Wilders’s PVV) challenges the might of the local PvdA.

Besides, monitoring these negotiations will be a useful practice run for June and July, when this blog will mainly discuss the national coalition negotiations.

Today we continue with Almere.

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Polls, polls, polls — coalition edition

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CDA, Coalitions, Polls, PvdA, VVD

I just discovered that Peil.nl released another poll yesterday, about government formation.

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New Peil.nl poll

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Balkenende, CDA, Coalitions, Cohen, D66, GL, Leers, PVV, Polls, PvdA, VVD, Verhagen, Wilders

Oh my, the new Peil.nl poll has landed two days early. I’ve added it to the polls page.

The timing is surprising, the content isn’t. Basically it confirms Thursday’s poll in that the PvdA wins five seats, of which one comes from the right, two from D66, and one each from GL and SP. The centre-left PvdA+CDA+D66 coalition does not yet have a majority in this poll, but does win two seats.

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New Politieke Barometer poll

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Balkenende, CDA, Cohen, D66, Halsema, PVV, Pechtold, Polls, PvdA, Roemer, Rouvoet, Rutte, Thieme, ToN, VVD, Van der Staaij, Verdonk, Wilders

The new Politieke Barometer poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.

The PvdA won seven seats, and that’s really a lot for just one week. Even in my dampened-down average the PvdA is now four seats larger than the CDA. It’s clear that the appointment of Cohen has been an excellent move.

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New Peil.nl poll

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CDA, D66, Polls, PvdA, VVD

The new Peil.nl poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.

The most important change is that the PvdA continues to win (+3 this week), and that the incrowd parties PvdA, CDA, VVD, and D66 combined also win (+4 together). The latter is odd for Peil.nl, which generally tends to give extreme and small parties more seats than its competitors do.

In general Peil.nl is moving to the numbers the Politieke Barometer gives. Still, it’s too early to tell whether this means a true change in the electorate or a random fluctuation.

The Almere formation

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CDA, Local elections, PVV, PvdA, VVD

Curiously, right now the major Dutch newspapers, except for De Telegraaf, are all but ignoring the single most important story in Dutch politics right now: the Almere formation. An update is in order.

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Developments; 7 March

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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, Local elections, PvdA, Roemer, SP, VVD, Wilders

More details about several unfolding political stories: the prime-minister race, Balkenende’s continuing stability problems, a PvdA+CDA coalition, new SP party leader Roemer, and the local government negotiations in Almere and Rotterdam.

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The local elections and their consequences

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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, D66, Debates, GL, Halsema, Kant, Local elections, PVV, Pechtold, PvdA, Roemer, Rutte, SP, ToN, VVD, Verdonk, Wilders

On Wednesday Dutch voted for their local councils, and the result is interesting. SP leader Kant resigns, Wilders’s PVV the largest party in one city, PvdA and CDA lose, D66 wins.

Before we continue, one housekeeping note: I will be away for the weekend, and there will be no updates to this blog. Publication will resume on Monday.

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Small fry; 2 March

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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, CU, PVV, PvdA, Rouvoet, ToN, VVD, Van Geel, Verhagen, Wilders

Some small fry that might be of interest to political observers:

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Party profile — VVD

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Party profiles, Rutte, VVD

The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of getting seats in the upcoming elections. We’ll go from largest to smallest.

Today we’ll continue with the VVD.

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This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.

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