Well, it seems VVD leader Rutte is no longer rejecting the Purple-Plus VVD+PvdA+D66+GL coalition. Commentators expect the next few days of Tjeenk Willink’s informership to be spent on exploring this possibility further.
Earlier this week Rutte didn’t budge yet. During a parliamentary debate on the first, failed round of information, Rutte reiterated his invitation to Wilders for forming a right-wing government. Rutte proposed that he and Wilders would start negotiating, and that the CDA would be involved later on.
Wilders refused. He retained his standpoint that he wanted the CDA to be involved in the negotiations immediately, something that CDA leader Verhagen still refuses to do.
Although this is a repeat performance of what happened during the first days of the formation, I cannot escape the feeling that Rutte has effectively put Wilders in a nasty spot. We’re weeks further now, some people are starting to get impatient, and still Wilders refuses the only coalition offer he’s likely to get. Sure, Verhagen doesn’t budge either, but Rutte asked Wilders, and not Verhagen.
So maybe, just maybe, this episode has given enough ammunition to the VVD (and possibly the CDA) to accuse Wilders of unwillingness to enter coalition negotiations. We’ll see. The accusation will certainly not be aired before there’s a new government, but what happens later is anyone’s guess.
In any case, today Rutte said that the only reason he might reject Purple-plus is when the other parties refuse to even discuss the VVD’s conditions. Cohen (PvdA), Pechtold (D66), and Halsema (GL) fell over each other in their hurry to assure Rutte that they had no “taboos” and were open to discussing absolutely anything.
(Source: Volkskrant)
So that’s it, I guess. Purple-plus it will be. The CDA has been silently removed from the process, and that’s an excellent notion. It was Verhagen, after all, who allowed Wilders to win the first round of information by refusing to negotiate, leaving Wilders to smell like roses and count his blessings. Rutte’s new invitation may harm Wilders, but it’s too soon to tell.
Not that we’ll have a new government next week. Serious, complicated negotiations will start, and Rutte is in a similar position to VVD leader Bolkestein back in 1994. Rutte will have to reassure his voters that he won’t squander VVD talking points to the three left-wing parties he’s going to talk to, which will probably mean that the eventual goverment programme will be heavily VVD-influenced.
Rutte is in the weakest position here: if things go wrong both CDA and PVV will suck votes from him like mad. Conversely, the three left-wing parties are relatively safe. Disappointed left-wing voters will only have the SP to go to, and to some of them that’s not an option.
Thus, since Rutte’s position is weaker than that of the other Purple-plus leaders, his demands will be the strongest. The other parties will understand that Rutte has to placate his voters, and will grant him quite a few of his wishes. The same happened in 1994 during the original Purple negotiations.
But now that he’s honestly tried to form a right-wing coalition not once but twice, only to be rejected by PVV and CDA, he can claim that his responsibility for the national good leaves him no choice but to open Purple-plus negotiations. This is the real reason the initial phase of the formation has taken so long.
Despite all this good news, the Purple-plus coalition will make sure that the fundamental VVD and PvdA problems will continue to exist. The PvdA will again be forced rightward economically; the VVD leftward with respect to immigration. Thus the long-term prospects of both SP and PVV continue to look rosy.
Incidentally, a few days ago PvdA leader Cohen rejected SP leader Roemer’s demand to also be included in the negotiations. Cohen cited the SP’s loss in the elections, and pointed out that a PvdA+CDA+SP+GL coalition would contain three losers and only one winner (GL), apart from having only 76 seats.
(Source: Volkskrant)
I’m not sure this was a wise decision. On the other side of the political spectrum Rutte has treated Wilders far more circumspectly, and has made Wilders at least partly responsible for his failure to enter government. Cohen might have been better off if he’d done something similar to the SP — maybe leaving the rejection of the proposed coalition to CDA leader Verhagen or something.
Anyway, Purple-plus it will be. The negotiations will be long and arduous, and there will be little news, except for the announcements that the negotiations are entering the serious “engagement” phase, and that a new coalition has been formed.
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This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.
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2 Posted by Urbe Politicus on 1 July 2010 | Permalink
It sounds like the coalition will have to be 50% right wing for the VVD to be able to really agree to it.
It also seems like at least one party in the coaition is going to have serious problems in the next election cycle.
3 Posted by CTerry on 2 July 2010 | Permalink
Historically D66 has a tendency to halve in size whenever they go into coalition with anybody as their electorate is so floaty, though, that said, all their major competitors are in the coalition. I suspect GL will suffer less so, but similarly. I can't see VVD staying on 31 seats at the next election. If the economy is still in the doldrums next time round VVD will get the blame, if the economy is fine attention will move onto value issues, particularly immigration and integration which will give Wilders a boost. Like it or not this is very mucha high for the VVD, easily their height since the 1990s. I can see the PvdA getting screwed by the SP... Honestly I don't really see anyone winning out of this, though the recent tendency in Dutch elections seems to be towards hating on everyone who's in the governing coalition. When was the last time a coalition member party actually *gained* seats?
4 Posted by CTerry on 2 July 2010 | Permalink
Historically D66 has a tendency to halve in size whenever they go into coalition with anybody as their electorate is so floaty, though, that said, all their major competitors are in the coalition. I suspect GL will suffer less so, but similarly. I can't see VVD staying on 31 seats at the next election. If the economy is still in the doldrums next time round VVD will get the blame, if the economy is fine attention will move onto value issues, particularly immigration and integration which will give Wilders a boost. Like it or not this is very mucha high for the VVD, easily their height since the 1990s. I can see the PvdA getting screwed by the SP... Honestly I don't really see anyone winning out of this, though the recent tendency in Dutch elections seems to be towards hating on everyone who's in the governing coalition. When was the last time a coalition member party actually *gained* seats?
5 Posted by Q. Pheevr on 2 July 2010 | Permalink
When was the last time a coalition member party actually *gained* seats?
2003.
6 Posted by Bryan on 2 July 2010 | Permalink
Purple-Plus Predictions
The shorter the agreed program, the longer the coalition will actually govern.
The more the program focuses on budget austerity, the better it will be for the people of the Netherlands long term.
The more help and support coalition partners can give Rutte the greater the possibility Wilders will be marginalized; and,
The approval rating of Rutte at the time of the next elections will determine whether VVD gains or loses seats in the next election.
No major revelations, but something to think about over the next couple of weeks.
Finally, looking back over the last 20 years is PvdA the new CDA for the next 30 years.
7 Posted by CTerry on 2 July 2010 | Permalink
I actually disagree sharply with point 1 Bryan. Once in a coalition it is not politically acceptable to break it for any disagreement with the coalition agreement itself. The 1990s Purple coalitions had massive coalition agreements for this precise reason. That said there is a big danger in long coalition agreements, as we can see from the 1990s. Bound together by the coalition agreement the three purple parties were incapable of staking out seperate positions. In doing so the Purple parties allowed for the growth of more radical parties, at first GreenLeft and the SP, but in the end it was Pim Fortuyn who most benefitted from a combination of populist anti-elitist discourse and genuine fears over immigration, which had been ignored. So yeah I wouldn't agree with shorter agreements to make the coalition more stable, but I do agree with the idea for the sake of the party's respective chances at the next election...
8 Posted by Bryan on 2 July 2010 | Permalink
The reasons you mentioned are why an extended, protracted micro-managed program is not what's needed under current uncertain economic conditions.
Address some of the immediate issues and agree to faithfully resolve other problems after immediate measures are accomplished.
With 4 parties once the trust and/or joy of the coalition are gone looking for a pretext in writing to crash the Cabinet is just a formality.
If Purple-Plus has to compromise every issue upfront the country is not going to get great governance.
They should make some initial plans and build up some goodwill.
Anyway what does everyone think about the characterization that PvdA is the new CDA in Dutch politics? Not suggesting PvdA wants to become the next CDA, but with
the different branches on the left, PvdA might have been more or less forced into the position.
9 Posted by Jelle on 3 July 2010 | Permalink
I would think D66 has a better chance at being the new CDA. They are economically centrist and have worked with all three great parties in the past, and could easily be called the Big Fourth. But I don't think they would like that position very much as they aren't rooted into the system as firmly as CDA (in fact, they're more like against the system). I actually think both PvdA and VVD are silently hoping CDA survives and remains a viable coalition choice. Then they can 'pull' their choice coalition left/right to look good with their constituents, while the CDA can easily handle the strain this pulling involves. This current tug-o-war between VVD and PvdA is going to leave one side weakened, strengthening the extreme ends and increasing the risk the next government will be the firm opposite of the losing coalition partner. No, CDA as alternative will always have their preference to not being in government.
10 Posted by Rob on 5 July 2010 | Permalink
CTerry: I thought that at first too, and I was really distraught going into the election based on the polls. However, the actual numbers show a precise tie. The left was just so dominant before.
If we now take CDA as the center, which is probably quite accurate right now, especially considering that they rejected PVV, then a left coalition (PvdA, CDA, GL, SP) has 76 votes with 2 supporting from the PvdD. Also the right-wing coalition with CDA has exactly 76 votes (VVD-PVV-CDA), with 2 supporting votes from the SGP.
This is especially true considering that the PVV ran as a left-wing party (economically). Yeah, we know they are full of shit, but they still ran as one. That, along with the unusually strong showing in the last election, accounts for the -10 SP shift. Thus, the real shift is not from left to right (economically). The real shift is from religious to secular parties. The end winners are the Purple Plus parties. These parties pillaged votes from the religious parties which fits into a larger trend. As far as a win for right-wing economics, that is harder to actually say. I think in that respect the election was a tie.
11 Posted by Bryan on 6 July 2010 | Permalink
Right vs. Left is a tricky question in Holland. CDA and now PvdA are more centrist than true right or true left.
With Purple and now possibly Purple Plus, PvdA may have become in essence another CDA type party that is willing “to go along, to get along” and be part of the Cabinet..
CDA and PvdA, as larger parties have had to moderate to keep the majority of their members somewhat happy. It also guarantees no big embarrassment for their voters once in government. But to call CDA truly right and PvdA left is probably a mistake.
Ask yourself, comparing the manifestos of VVD and PvdA would you think these parties would work well together. On paper, absolutely not. In practice it has and may work again because right vs. left isn’t as important for the party leaders as it might be for the voter.
12 Posted by CTerry on 6 July 2010 | Permalink
With the increasing proliferation of political parties in the Netherlands, I think it is best to divide the Dutch party system into two types at this point:
'Government Ready' parties which are moderate, willing to compromise, and stable enough to be considered decent coalition partners. CDA would be the chief example, but also PvdA, D66, VVD, CU and GL.
'Anti-System' parties, parties with relatively radical demands who it is very difficult to see in the government. PVV, SP, SGP. Course the dividing line is not that simple (SP is pretty close to it for example), but that is the general divide. With each election the Anti-System parties grow a little, and the Government Ready parties must patch together increasingly odd coalitions. Yet in general a consensus remains between them. If an anti-system party crosses over into the 'Government Ready' category then it is replaced by a new anti-system party, muddling the party system even further.
13 Posted by Bryan on 6 July 2010 | Permalink
The reality of Purple –
How do you explain Right ruling with Left or vice versa?
Only answer: PvdA and D66 are not strictly Left.
Also, Right, Left, Christian, Atheist, Socialist, Green and even Animal.
Bottom line, the most defining litmus test “right now” is positioning on the issue of economics, including worker benefits, income, housing, health insurance and social spending. If you look at this litmus test, before the election the parties could be considered as follows:
SP, GL---Left
PvdA, D66, CU and CDA---Center Left to Center Right
VVD, SGP---Right
PVV ---An Enigma
PvdD---Probably depends on whoever is the party leader, but otherwise thankfully irrelevant.
Consequently, if Purple-Plus happens the surprise for me is GL’s involvement, if it happens, I would suggest Femke change the party name to just “Green”.
Otherwise, Emile’s has it right, Left parties don’t work with VVD and Kees v.d. Staaij is correct in concluding Calvinists invented “economic right”.
14 Posted by CTerry on 10 July 2010 | Permalink
No mass-party is truly 'left', any party that actually wants power needs to compromise, and that means moving to the centre-left naturally. I think the thing is, ultimately, is that its not so much a case of ANY party being the 'new CDA', but that the Dutch party system has become so fragmented, with so many parties who are incompatible that the only likely coalitions are those that feature at least one centre-left and one centre-right party. There may be a possibility of CDA/VVD/PVV sooner or later, though of course as a right-wing populist party the PVV does not obey the traditional strictures of the right. Basically I don't think the Dutch will ever see a traditional right-wing or a pure left-wing coalition.
15 Posted by Maarten Daalder on 20 July 2010 | Permalink
Oh bother, no Paars Plus. :(
Now, hopefully, PVV will be back on the table right in time for them to fail and burn spectacularly for everyone inclined to such a group to see that they are the problem, not the solution.
16 Posted by Bryan on 21 July 2010 | Permalink
Purple Plus becomes Purple Minus,
But don’t despair,
Cohen quoted as saying, “He never says never”.
What PvdA could use at this point is a Bos.
17 Posted by CTerry on 22 July 2010 | Permalink
Sounds like they're going back to a right-wing coalition. *Sigh*. I can't imagine a right-wing coalition would survive a year. The PVV is unpredictable. While Wilders may exercise strict control over his party, probably enough to prevent a LPF style implosion, I find it difficult to imagine that not a single MP won't defect away at some point (possibly Brinkman). The VVD has also demonstrated a tendency towards defections of late. A right-wing coalition won't last 12 months I bet. Not that this would be a bad thing from the left's POV... last time an analogous coalition formed the PvdA won its best result since 1998 in the ensuing election.
1 Posted by CTerry on 1 July 2010 | Permalink
As much as I hate to say it, the right won the election. It is only fair that while a purple-plus is numerically dominated by the left more VVD promises go through than their size would suggest. Its depressing, but those are the facts. It is going to be a very bumpy few years in Dutch politics from what can I see. Still, the Dutch are masters at this consensus politics guff. Though as 4 parties now attempt to placate their various electorates we're gonna have a fun time. I look forward to seeing the coalition agreement details.