This is a hobby project. My hobbies do not include old IEs. Therefore this page does not work in IE8 or lower.
Here I study the polls.
Here is my weighted average of the polls. It reports a shift of seats relative to current parliament.
The effective number of parties is a measure for the fragmentation of a party system. The highest effective number ever reached in actual elections was 6.7 in 2010.
See the party profiles for a description of most parties.
For an introduction to Dutch coalitions I advise you to read this article series that I wrote for the 2010 elections. The details are slightly different today, but the broad overview is still valid.
These tables are automatically generated — they may sometimes show weird coalitions. Still, Dutch politics are in such a state of advanced chaos that even weird coalitions may come to look appealing.
A five- or even a six-party coalition is not as remote as it might seem. Not all parties have to send ministers to the cabinet — they can support government from parliament, like Wilders supports Rutte’s VVD+CDA government. The left-wing equivalent would be a PvdA+D66+GL government.
Still, such a minority government would have to come to agreements with other parties that promise to support it. This combination of government parties and supporting parties would have to have a majority, and it is likely to be one of the coalitions mentioned here.
I add the likelihood of all coalitions that a party participates in to get at its likelihood to be in government. I do the same for all coalition types and sizes.
There are three pollsters in Dutch politics: the Politieke Barometer, Peil.nl, and TNS-NIPO. Here’s the raw JSON data; below are some nice tables.
2011-2012 data are here.
The Politieke Barometer publishes its poll every two weeks on a Thursday.
I trust the Politieke Barometer more than the other pollsters. It has a better score than the others for the right block and the traditional catch-all parties.
Politieke Barometer polls are usually quoted in the press, but don’t get anything near the exposure of Peil.nl polls.
Peil.nl publishes its poll every week on Sunday.
Peil.nl is always out for sensational headlines. Protest parties SP and PVV usually poll better with Peil.nl than with the other two, and the same goes for the left block and for small parties.
Maurice de Hond, Peil.nl’s owner and a well-known political commentator in his own right, uses an open Internet poll to which anyone can subscribe. (I have.) This methodology is criticised time and again by the other two pollsters and political scientists, but if we compare his last polls to the election results he doesn’t do significantly worse than the other two. Part of the problem is that he has the best press contacts of the three, and his polls always draw headlines. Besides, if a TV programme needs a political pollster they always ask him. This won’t make him very popular among his colleagues.
TNS-NIPO publishes its poll about every two months.
Generally TNS-NIPO is closer to the Politieke Barometer than to Peil.nl, with maybe a tad advantage for the centre parties.
TNS-NIPO polls rarely garner much attention in the press, except in De Volkskrant, which is a partner in this series of polls. That’s probably due to the confused release schedule, and TNS-NIPO’s annoying habit to release some polls only together with the next one.
Een Vandaag publishes its poll every month.
The poll is executed by Intomart GFK, which also polled in 2010 but not earlier, and did the worst job of the four pollsters. It seems even more left-minded than Peil.nl, which is no mean feat. Also, the single issue parties score better than in the other polls.
One incredibly annoying habit this poll has is giving the occasional seat to “other parties” — without making clear which parties. I assign these seats to the Pirate Party, which right now is the only Other party that stands a chance of entering parliament. Of course that’s incorrect, but I don’t know how else to deal with these seats.
(SEO bait for Dutch-language searches)
Hier vindt u de peilingen over de Tweede Kamer-verkiezingen en de Nederlandse politiek van Peil.nl (Maurice de Hond), Synovate / Politieke Barometer en TNS-NIPO. Tevens bevat deze pagina mijn gemiddelde van de peilingen en een berekening van de mogelijke coalities.
Finally a quick section on how I calculate my average and the coalitions.
I treat the polls as follows:
Assigned bonus votes:
I assign bonus votes to some parties. They are supposed to represent the number of voters that right now say they won’t vote (and thus aren’t counted in the polls) but eventually will vote after all.
The best example is the PVV: some people don’t dare to own up to the fact they’re going to vote for it, and that’s why the PVV handily beat the polls in both 2006 and 2010. I want to add that effect to my calculations.
Still, bonus votes are rather speculative, and I’ll try to validate the percentages. Expect frequent changes here.
The most negative opinion prevails. So if the SP indicates it can work with the VVD, but the VVD says it can’t work with the SP, their relation is Excluded.
The script creates all possible coalitions and then rejects the following ones:
The table shows the remaining coalitions.
The likelihood of a coalition is calculated by the following formula that I tweaked by hand (there are few theoretical underpinnings here). I don’t doubt I’ll make frequent changes.
The formula is
1/SIZE * MAJORITY * SMALLEST * RELATION * SENATE
Once the likelihood of all coalitions has been calculated, the results are treated as votes in an election for 100 seats. This yields the percentages that are shown in the table.
Here I compare the final polls of the pollsters to the election outcome. I hope this makes clear why I consider the Politieke Barometer the best pollster.
The average error averages all errors of each pollster, where the most recent error counts double.
Lower numbers are better. The calculation is as follows:
The PAM is the Politieke Aandelenmarkt (Political Stock Market), an initiative of De Volkskrant, which was supposed to give better results than the pollsters but didn’t. I played in 2006.
In 2010 I drew an average of the polls; I think I just averaged the numbers without weighting or other subtle tweaks. Since the pollsters were fairly close I also was fairly close. In 2012 I use the results of my poll average.
Poll data over 2002-2006 come from Cijfers.net.
PvdA and especially VVD were underestimated by all pollsters — clearly a last-minute prime-minister race effect boosted them both, mostly to the detriment of the SP. Also, the PVV was overestimated for the first time, and by a lot less seats than it was underestimated in 2010. The theory that they lost last-minute seats to the VVD is defensible. So maybe the PVV is becoming predictable.
In 2010 all pollsters underestimated Wilders’s PVV for the second time running, which is why it is a difficult party to predict. Some polls again missed the fact that the PVV would be the only extreme right party in parliament.
Also, the CU’s loss of one seat was not predicted (and Intomart even predicted a ridiculous 10 seats).
All pollsters underestimated Wilders’s PVV, and only TNS-NIPO saw that it would be the only extreme right party — the others have one or two others win a few seats. Also, the SP polls diverged very widely.
All pollsters but the PAM had the PvdA a tiny bit larger than the CDA, but in the elections the CDA became the biggest. This is a classic prime-minister-race effect.
The big surprise was that the CDA grew a lot more than expected, and GL and CU lost one seat instead of winning a few. CU to CDA is a logical movement.
All pollsters got big newcomer LPF (List Pim Fortuyn) about right.
Data as yet incomplete; Peil.nl is missing. And to be honest I’m not totally sure I got the very badly formatted data right, or whether it’s reliable. I mean, did they really predict 3 seats for Janmaat?