My apologies for not posting more; I’m busy busy. The politicians are busy busy, too, rejecting coalitions faster than the eye can follow.
I already said that the right-wing VVD+PVV+CDA coalitions has been rejected by the CDA, afraid as it is to offend its left wing and large parts of the centre, who do not want a coalition that includes the PVV.
When right failed, informer Rosenthal gauged support for VVD+PvdA+D66+GL Purple-Plus (the new name for Purple-green), but the VVD rejected it. Then came the forbidden VVD+PvdA+CDA coalition, which the PvdA rejected. Then he extended a general invitation to VVD, PvdA, CDA, D66, and GL, but the last two parties rejected such a coalition from the broad centre.
Back to square one? Formally, yes. Still, the reason for VVD and PvdA to reject coalitions was not so much that they really don’t want them, but rather to show their voters that they care about them. But when their backs are to the wall, and they must form a coalition, they’ll likely be much more amenable to discussion.
However, every party is waiting for another party to force the issue and push them to the wall, and no party has as yet shown any inclination of pushing another party. Impasse.
Yesterday Rosenthal (VVD) reported the latest impossibilities to the Queen, and advised her to appointed a second informer, this one from the PvdA. The Queen, however, rejected his advise and appointed Tjeenk Willink (PvdA) sole informer.
Such solo actions of the Queen are unusual, but not unheard-of. She did something similar in 1994, when the first round of Purple negotiations had failed, and CDA, VVD, and D66 had all rejected a coalition. Back then only the PvdA hadn’t, and the Queen rewarded the social-democrats with the informership, which eventually led to Purple I.
The situation is different now. The PvdA has rejected a coalition, but that was the forbidden one that just does not fit into the Dutch party system. This is the only rejection I completely agree with, and apparently the Queen feels the same.
Besides, she’s sending a clear message. The VVD, as the largest party, could take the initiative just after the elections, but it has squandered that right, which has now devolved on second-largest PvdA. I interpret her action as a snub to the VVD.
We might get a discussion on whether the Queen has overstepped her de-facto authority by ignoring Rosenthal’s advice. Constitutional scholars live for these moments, and the Queen is not a democratically elected official.
Still, I feel that a democratically elected official would have done pretty much the same. The VVD has not exactly gone out of its way to create a sensible coalition, and switching to the PvdA makes a certain amount of sense.
Tjeenk Willink emphasised he was going to be strict in his informing: no protracted negotiations, but a quick round of talks in order to find out which parties are willing to talk to which parties. Basically he wants to force the parties themselves to take a next step.
It might also be useful to discuss actual issues with the parties; until now it was only a game of who wants whom, without any reference to factual differences of opinions.
Anyway, it seems the first two options to be studied are the broad centre coalition (VVD+PvdA+CDA, possibly reinforced by GL and D66), and Purple-Plus. In other words: all variants that have the PvdA in them. That’s not absurd for a PvdA informer.
In any case Wilders’s PVV is out of the picture. As regular readers will know I consider that a problem, and not a solution. Wilders should have been forced to either reject government or taint his ideological purity in government. But that option seems to have been killed effectively by the CDA.
All the more reason not to reward the christian-democrats with governmental involvement and to go for Purple-Plus.
<— No right-wing government | Purple-plus becomes “necessary” —>
This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.
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2 Posted by Bryan on 28 June 2010 | Permalink
The Queen Has Power!
On paper choosing the Informer seemed somewhat pro forma, but with no big election winner and no clear mandate, Rosenthal had a tough job and sounded genuinely relieved when he announced he was once again a “private citizen”.
Re-enter the Queen, and her power choice of Tjeenk. If it works her mark is made on the next government. I just hope she told Tjeenk to get it done with VVD and PvdA and if either of the second tier parties of D66 or GL gives any back-talk, immediately call CU to close the deal.
Getting a coalition close to July 1 is good; having to listen to any demands from Femke Halsema or Pechtold is a total waste of time.
3 Posted by CTerry on 28 June 2010 | Permalink
Listening to demands to Halsema or Pechtold is essential if they are going to participate in the coalition. CU demands will be a lot more difficult for the VVD to muster, that is not going to change. The 1st of July was always an unrealistic coalition target. Considering the diffuse nature of a Purple-Plus coalition the parties should really take their time and iron out as many differences as possible, and get as comprehensive a coalition agreement as possible to make it as difficult as possible for one of the parties (probably the PvdA, but I can also see D66 or the VVD doing this) to bolt on some ideological point not covered by the coalition agreement later on. With purple-plus negotiations the aim MUST be government stability, not formation speed. Leaving two coalition partners out of negotiations is completely irregular (it didn't happen until the CDA refused to negotiate with the PVV this year) and will sour governmental relations before they even begin.
4 Posted by Bryan on 28 June 2010 | Permalink
If PvdA isn’t going to fight for inclusion of a GL or D66 agenda item it should be off the table. If Job wants D66 +GL he has to deliver.
You can’t have agreement between PvdA and VVD and give D66 or GL veto power before joining the coalition. Job needs to talk to Halsema and Pechtold and lay out how far PvdA is willing to go for their platforms. The left can’t present three sets of “make or break” demands to be part of government.
5 Posted by CTerry on 28 June 2010 | Permalink
You're acting as if the Dutch left is homogenous. It isn't. That's why there is three political parties. There are areas where PvdA, D66 and GL agree yes, but there are also areas where D66, GL and VVD agree but the PvdA does not. The whole point of purple is that D66 (and in this case GL too) acts as a mediator, preventing coalition collapse by drifting between the two parties. This is why it was invited into government in 1998 despite not technically being needed in terms of electoral arithmetic. A pure PvdA-VVD negotiation will simply reach impasse. It also runs the risk of pissing off Halsema and Pechtold enough that they refuse to enter government altogether and force fresh elections. You either negotiate with ALL parties or you don't negotiate at all. This is The Way Things Are. In a consensus system like the Netherlands you cannot simply sideline a voice because it is small, doing so risks the system itself. It also means that the blame for coalition failure lands squarely on your shoulders as the CDA is now finding out after the failure of the right-wing negotiations. Leave D66 and GL out and you risk fresh elections where both will certainly gain seats.
6 Posted by CTerry on 28 June 2010 | Permalink
Cohen cannot represent GL and D66 in coalition negotiations. Doing so would be an insult to the two parties and an insult to the electorate. The only people who can represent GL and D66 are Halsema and Pechtold, which is their jobs.
7 Posted by Bryan on 28 June 2010 | Permalink
Totally agree negotiations with all potential coalition parties will and have to take place.
Merely suggesting some strategy for those negotiations. Also I assume each party knows the top 6 to 10 policy positions of every other party. Although the left is not homogenous, Job has the most political power to form the overall left leaning policies that will make their way into the next government program. Femke Halsema and Alex Pechtold can negotiate all they want, but unless VVD or PvdA can tolerate the policy at some level nobody should waste time trying to bridge every difference within the potential coalition.
Also, I don’t know exactly when they start discussing ministry appointments, but I have a sense that if Alex gets the position he wants, negotiations with D66 will get a lot easier. Pechtold wants a decent platform to show his political acumen, and is more interested in political success than winning middle to minor policy concessions.
8 Posted by CTerry on 28 June 2010 | Permalink
Oh yes, of course there will be tolerable crap. D66 will want to protect education spending from the coming cuts, no one will have much trouble with that, so that has a good chance of getting through. D66 can also be palmed off with crap on democratic reform as that is their raison d'etre. Binding referenda, directly elected mayors or senate abolition are particular points which are likely to find sympathy. The latter especially as a Purple-Plus coalition will not have an immediate Senate majority. GL will want more money on the environment, all four parties are theoretically environmentalist. They've also got a wide-ranging programme of welfare reform which I can see the other parties supporting. D66 and GL are not stupid, they are not going to sit there and ask for things that they know both the PvdA and VVD are definitely opposed to.
9 Posted by Bryan on 29 June 2010 | Permalink
Emile speaks – will anyone listen?
Trouw reports Roemer has written a letter to Tjeenk to talk about PvdA, CDA, SP and GL.
I give Emile credit to fight for SP involvement, but – he really should know Cohen has spent 2 weeks rejecting any coalition including PvdA and CDA, because it would be a coalition of “losers”
So the answer from the dutch political elite to Emile -- just like it was to Geert is probably no!
10 Posted by CTerry on 29 June 2010 | Permalink
Given the apparent impasse it would be idiotic, tactically, of Roemer not to advertise his availability ofr a centre-left coalition. Roemer has rejuvenated a party that, until recently, appeared moribund, he is not an idiot. Truth be told a coalition involving both the CDA and the SP would likely be a dream come true for the PvdA as they would hold a position at the centre of the governing coalition and would therefore have the ability to float between coalition partners.
However, of those parties only 1 is an election winner (GL) and the SP plummeted in the polls. In fact all together that would be a coalition of parties that lost, in net terms, 30 seats. Coalition of the losers indeed. What's more the SP and the CDA couldn't get along well enough to form a coalition when both were in a position of strength and the CDA has just lost a swathe of seats to its right.
If the SP is to ever enter government it will only be with the CDA. I cannot imagine the Dutch left ever truly winning a majority, but the SP has some way to go and given the election that has just come... just no. The SP missed its chance. Its chance was 2006, and it screwed it up.
11 Posted by CTerry on 29 June 2010 | Permalink
For what it's worth I don't think that Roemer *expects* to be taken seriously. He is simply beginning anew a narrative that has worked for the SP so many times in the past - 'Ooo isn't the PvdA right-wing. Look they refused our offer of a coalition. Oh look they're in coalition with the VVD. Cuts are evil! Working man is being screwed for the rich man!' etc. etc. It is not coincidence that the SP first came to national attention during the purple coalition days, though in those days GL got the bulk of the left-wing anti-purple support. Now we have a situation where the SP will be the sole leftist party outside a governing coalition that contains the VVD. If SP gets its positioning it could well explode past the 25 seats it won in 2006. Assuming that Purple-Plus will be a disaster for all involved (which is fairly safe considering the 2002 election) the SP has real potential to soak up the shrapnel. Indeed, in 2002 it went from 6 to 9 seats.
12 Posted by Bryan on 29 June 2010 | Permalink
@ CTerry in line with your posts -- it is interesting Emile excluded D66.
SP realizes for Purple-Plus to work D66 might have to support VVD on budget cuts and other economy related issues.
I say "might" because now that Cohen has received the wink from the Queen that PvdA has the driver's seat, pressure mounts on Rutte as the left grows stronger.
It's possible if Purple-Plus comes together Rutte is P.M. over policies that are mostly left.
Without any help from CDA to threaten PVV, Rutte is all alone with the left and Cohen knows it.
Have to say, having pretend voted for VVD, watching the vise close on Rutte isn't that enjoyable.
On that point, even Emile now sees it possible to at least talk about excluding VVD.
13 Posted by CTerry on 29 June 2010 | Permalink
Emile excluded D66 because it is centrist on economic policy. It is leftist in that modern 1960s New Left way. Political reform, environmentalism, multiculturalism. The SP isn't interested. It doesn't reject any of that crap, but it is primarily an old-style working-class unreconstructed socialist party, not unlike the PvdA of the immediate post-war period. GL is also very New Left, but its economic programme is more clearly left-wing, and such a coalition wouldn't require both D66 and GL so why confuse things. In actuality if such a coalition was to be attempted I suspect the CDA would want D66 in, so that there is someone closer to its views on economics, or the CU which is more centre-left on economics, but which would please the Christian aspect more (though the CU wouldn't give it a coalition). Its all academic anyway because right now such a coalition isn't going to happen. One day perhaps, maybe even at the next election if the SP does particularly well, not right now.
14 Posted by CTerry on 29 June 2010 | Permalink
As for the VVD, I think you fears are unjustified. As always I think the best case is to look at the last cabinet like this: the 1990s purple coalition. Now it is generally accepted that on economics policy the coalition was closer to the VVD line than the PvdA line. Why is this? Well because the VVD basically demanded it as its price for coalition cooperation. Admittedly the PvdA was on a centrist third-way kick at that point, but the point still remains. When Rutte goes into the coalition talks that will be his main line in the sand, I have no doubt. Its also worth remembering the nature of the left-wing parties we are talking about. We are not talking about the SP here. D66 and GL are primarily post-materialist New Left parties, not who are less concerned with economics. As you yourself have pointed out Cohen is also weak on economics, primarily being focused on the multiculturalism issue. I expect that the economics policy will be more VVD than anything else, but that the coalition will be extremely socially liberal elsewhere. This will be fine by the VVD as this is where its most leftist anyway, being left of the CDA on that crap.
15 Posted by Jelle on 30 June 2010 | Permalink
I actually think VVD would do better to demand a hard approach on immigration and integration for strategic reasons. Or at least, that's what I would have done in that position. Showing the right you are capable of limiting the number of immigrants would take the wind out of Wilder's sails, especially considering the VVD has a better chance of being in government to enforce that policy, unlike PVV. Added bonus is that you can do that without insults and provoking riots or going against the constitution.
But it will likely cost them a lot of credit with D66 and PvdA. D66 probably hasn't forgotten VVD's 'consequent' immigration policy during Balkenende II. And all other three parties are positive towards multiculturalism. They'd need serious incentive in exchange like enviromental investment, education and a brake on market forces in the healthcare system. Even so this is something I think the VVD should do, if only to deprive Wilders of votes.
16 Posted by CTerry on 30 June 2010 | Permalink
D66 is actually a pretty strong backer of market forces in healthcare no? Though I see your point RE: PvdA and GL. And yeah I see your point on integration. They should attempt to make a big song and dance out of it, but then demand economic concessions for a lack in follow through.
1 Posted by Stijn on 28 June 2010 | Permalink
Could you maybe explain why exactly CDA/VVD/PvdA is "forbidden" in a later post? I understand you're busy, but I think it would be an interesting topic. I'm a bit puzzled by the fact that this site is the only source I've read so far that explicitly calls it "forbidden". I couldn't find more explanation than "the three parties would seem to be too alike then" on this blog, but that seems an unsatisfactory explanation to me. After all, the parties have worked together in all possible combinations (except perhaps all three, unless the country is in a crisis) before.