Party | Result | ||
---|---|---|---|
VVD | 34 | +1 | Winner, to nobody’s surprise. Still, in some polls the VVD was at about 40 seats a few weeks ago, so they’ve come down, mostly due to a switch to D66 last weekend. |
D66 | 24 | +5 | The surprising winner. The polls captured a switch from VVD to D66, but did not capture the subsequent switch from the other left-wing parties to D66. The Democrats profited from a last-minute prime minister race. |
PVV | 17 | -3 | Lost unexpectedly. Its seats went to other extreme-right parties. |
CDA | 15 | -4 | Lost. The polls showed them roughly stable around their 2017 result of 19 seats, but the CDA was too VVD-like in its standpoints. And why opt for a copy when you can vote for the original? |
SP | 9 | -5 | Lost. Protest votes mostly went right this time, and D66 sucked away left-wing votes. |
PvdA | 9 | 0 | Stable. That was a deception; Labour expected to win at least a few seats. But it seems their time has passed. But I think they need a real left-wing leader instead of yet another bland centrist. |
GL | 8 | -6 | Lost heavily. I mostly blame the last-minute switch to D66. Still, it didn’t do enough in the past parliamentary session to deserve gains. |
FvD | 8 | +6 | Won despite allegations of anti-semitism. Part of the reason is Forum’s Corona denial, part is sheer racist bloody-mindedness with part of the electorate. Still, one wonders how far they would have come without the Corona crisis. |
PvdD | 6 | +1 | Won slightly. Had hoped for more. But their positioning as GL’s more strict successor is kind-of working. |
CU | 5 | 0 | Stable. Both christian parties are always stable, no matter what the polls say, so no surprises here. They can only win if turnout is low, which it wasn’t this time. |
SGP | 3 | 0 | |
Volt | 3 | +3 | Pro-EU newcomer. Roughly in the same spot as D66, so D66 might have won their votes if Volt hadn’t been around. |
DENK | 3 | 0 | Stable. That’s a moderate success, since polls showed the party for Turkish and Moroccan Dutch losing a seat. |
JA21 | 3 | +3 | Extreme right newcomer; FvD split-off. Supposed to be a decent right-wing party. Party leader Eerdmans has goernmental experience in Rotterdam. |
50Plus | 1 | -3 | Remained in parliament, which was unsure for a long time after the interminable internal arguments of the last years. |
BIJ1 | 1 | +1 | Newcomer. Split-off of DENK for black Dutch, although party leader Simons clearly wants to broaden her base and become a general left-wing party. |
BBB | 1 | +1 | Newcomer. This farmers’ party was on no one’s radar until days before the elections. Farmers’s parties are populist but not necessarily extreme right, but this one might be. Unclear. |
The extreme right populist parties (and for now I count 50Plus and BBB as such) broke through the Fortuyn limit of 28 seats, now occupying 30. Without 50Plus and BBB they’d have 28, exactly the limit. Whether that is a one-time occurrence remains to be seen; although they reached or exceeded the limit, they did not shatter it.
Fortunately the elections’ big story is D66, and not the extreme right. On election night D66 was estimated at 27 seats, and despite them falling back this narrative is still the dominant one. Also, it might be that the Dutch press has shed its fascination with the extreme right.
There are more parties than ever in parliament: 17. The 1918 elections, the first under proportional representation, returned 18 parties, but it’s the only election to return more than the current one.
Finally, two new parties entered parliament with a single seat. This is not as common as it might seem; the last time this happened was in 1994. Since then all new parties won at least two seats.
Now we go to the formation of a new government. Which coalition will be foremd? On election night VDD+D66+CDA had a slim 76-seat majority. Although D66 lost seats, this combination is still seen as the most logical one. At its current 73 seats it needs an extra party, but there are plenty of candidates: CU, GL, PvdA, maybe even Volt.
The VVD is more or less required to sit in the next coalition. So is D66, its gains leave it no other option. In that regard they are in the position that CDA and PvdA used to be in: even though they fought each other during the campaign, they were forced to cooperate after the elections. PvdA and VVD were in the same position in 2012.
This gives D66 some power to turn the country toward a more pro-EU, progressive stance. If negotiations between VVD and D66 fail, the VVD is more likely to get the blame (unless Rutte does something very clever), and therefore D66 has the upper hand. Still, its stance during Rutte III was somewhat disappointing, so they might cave in and go for power.
So far the rule has been that the junior partner in a Rutte-led government lost in the next elections. Both CDA and PVV lost in 2012, after the VVD+CDA(+PVV) Rutte I, and PvdA lost heavily in 2017, after the VVD+PvdA Rutte II. This time around only CDA lost after the VVD+CDA+D66+CU Rutte III. That means that the CDA might be less eager to enter the coalition this time. On the other hand, it is nothing without power. The smart money is on them being part of Rutte IV.
In the case that the CDA refuses to participate the formation becomes more complex, and five parties will be necessary. VVD+D66+PvdA+GL+[CU or PvdD] is the most likely option, but the question is whether Rutte wants to form a government with a bunch of left-wing parties.
All in all I expect the CDA to cave in and participate, though they might play hard to get for a little while.
VVD and D66 have started talks with one another and with other parties, but the real work can only start after the Electoral Council’s report: a crucial seat might still change hands.
Update: One seat went from VVD to D66. Their final seat counts are 34 and 24.
]]>Party | Ipsos | Kantar | Peil.nl | I&O | My average |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
VVD | 35 | 36 | 31 | 33 | 34 |
PVV | 19 | 18 | 24 | 20 | 20 |
D66 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 18 |
CDA | 17 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 16 |
SP | 11 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
PvdA | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
GL | 11 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 10 |
CU | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
PvdD | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
FvD | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
SGP | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Volt | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
DENK | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
JA21 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
50Plus | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
BIJ1 | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
BBB | 1 | 1 | - | 1 | 1 |
Splinter | - | 1 | - | - | 0 |
It is clear that Rutte’s VVD will remain the largest party. There’s a struggle going on for second place, though. So far everyone assumed Wilders’s PVV was going to take second again, but with the recent upsurge of D66 that is uncertain.
Also, the VVD may remain the largest party, but which parties will want to enter yet another VVD-led coalition? CDA, yes, that’s a given. But other than that? Will D66 sign up for a second term? Given that it may have broken its streak of losing heavily after coalition participation, maybe. But they’ll need a fourth party. Again CU? D66 and CU remain polar opposites when it comes to progressive and conservative values. GL? PvdA? Who knows.
One thing is certain: it won’t be Wilders or Baudet. Both VVD and CDA have formally excluded them, so when it comes to power a PVV (or FvD) vote remains a wasted one. That won’t stop people from voting for them, though.
Incidentally, the populist parties large and small are at 28 seats in my average, which is exactly the Fortuyn limit in place since the 2002 elections. In those elections the populists won 28 seats as well, and they never exceeded that number. From the polls it appears that 2021 will not be the year they break through the Fortuyn limit, either.
]]>I have mostly ignored the childcare benefit scandal because I am not 100% certain of the details, and I thought everyone would forgive one another and it wouldn’t have a lasting impact. That turns out to be incorrect.
Briefly, poorer parents are entitled to certain childcare benefit payments, which are dispensed by the tax service. It turns out that countless parents have been wrongly marked as fraudsters and had to pay back their benefits, which they usually were unable to do. Meanwhile civil servants at the tax service and politicians looked the other way, until parliament, notably CDA member (and former party leadership candidate) Omtzigt, got hold of the affair. Recently parliament conducted an inquiry that resulted in a scathing report.
The scandal spans this government and the preceding one, which means just about all senior politicians of the broad centre are involved. In the current government VVD, CDA, and D66 ministers were responsible, and in the previous Rutte II government VVD and PvdA ministers were repsonsible, among which then-social affairs minister Asscher.
In the last week or so the question if government would resign over this scandal has become quite a talking point. It would mostly be a cosmetic resignation; regular elections will be held in March, and the current government would continue its job, just as a demissionary government that isn’t allowed to take senstive decisions. Of course, the ongoing Corona crisis requires sensitive decisions, and Rutte already said that if he would resign and continue as demissionary prime minister, he would continue to do what was necessary in the Corona crisis.
The argument that a government resignation in the midst of a pandemic is a bad idea appeared to carry the day. Until today, that is.
Now Asscher has taken his responsibility. In the past week he was attacked within the PvdA; some members held that his credibility as a social-democratic leader had been annihilated. They have a point, and the PvdA dropped in the most recent polls, indicating that its remaining voters agreed. Thus Asscher decided to quit.
By quitting now Asscher is doing his party a service, not only by making way for a less controversial leader, but also by holding up a mirror to government. Asscher has taken his responsibility, when will Rutte? Pressure on Rutte has just gone up sky high. The other coalition parties CDA, D66, and CU were already said to be in favour of resignation; they calculate that it would hurt the VVD a lot more than it would hurt them. And with the VVD appearing unassailable in the polls they can use some help in bringing it down. I expect them to double down on resignation.
Note that if government actually resigns it will have little impact on day to day affairs, especially the Corona crisis. Still, it would damage Rutte, and that’s what this exercise is all about.
]]>On Thursday Baudet called for leadership elections; it’s unclear if these are going to proceed now that he has won. Just now it was announced that there would be a member vote as soon as possible.
Now Baudet can try to pick up the pieces. On the one hand FvD with Baudet will do a lot better than FvD without Baudet; say what you want, he has charisma. On the other hand the party is severely damaged. The accusations of anti-semitism and radicalisation are now generally assumed to be true, and while they will help Baudet with a few voters, more will be put off by them.
Still, the question about Baudet’s opponents has become why they waited so long before doing something about Baudet’s radicalisation. His anti-semite remarks, while more extreme than before, were not fundamentally new, but until last week his intra-party opponents mostly ignored them. The reason is clear: it’s not Baudet’s anti-semitism that’s bothering them, but his pro-Corona stance that is costing the party seats. In other words, the opposition is not better than Baudet.
The (former?) intellectual face of the party, Leiden professor Cliteur, who left the party last week before Baudet’s victory but still supports him, is under attack from within Leiden university for his silence about Baudet’s radicalisation. Let’s see if there will be any stronger consequences than a bit of intellectual discomfort.
Still, the FvD spell over the media has been broken; at least partially. A few journalists are finally asking the right questions. And since media fascination was one of Baudet’s strongest trump cards this may grow into a serious problem.
In how much trouble is the party right now? Peil.nl ran a special extra poll on Friday, before Baudet won the struggle, to measure the effect of the infighting. Result: FvD lost 5 out of 8 seats, 4 of which went to Wilders. That paints a clear picture, and it shows there is not much difference between PVV and FvD. Then again, Peil.nl frequently assigns too much weight to the populist parties. Let’s hope one of the other pollsters runs a poll as well in the near future.
One thing should be stressed: unlike Baudet Wilders is not an anti-semite. The opposite, rather; he has always been a stalwart defender of the state of Israel. Although a few other PVV members occasionally flirted with anti-semitism, the fact that Wilders decides what happens means that the PVV as a party will steer clear of this particular form of racism. (Also, I always assumed anti-semtism is incompatible with anti-islam, and Wilders is anti-islam first and foremost.)
If this news dump seems a bit chaotic, that’s exactly how the situation feels as well.
Below is the chronicle I kept last Thursday and Friday, after I published my previous piece.
That is the status so far; no doubt I’ll have another update on the FvD soap soon. Also, on Sunday the Peil.nl poll will drop, the first one to factor in all these FvD problems. Let’s see how many seats they retain. My guess: 1 or 2.
See also this excellent overview article by extreme-right specialist Cas Mudde.
Now I’m going to publish quickly before the situation changes again.
]]>Recently it was revealed for the second time that some members of the FvD youth organisation have been exchanging anti-semitic and nazi apps, such as that Jews have an international paedophile network and more such delightful opinions. Something similar happened before, and the youth organisation promised to do better. It didn’t.
Freek Jansen, leader of the youth organisation, is a close ally of Baudet, and they seem to share an extreme right ideology that goes way too far for most party members. Recently Jansen had been allotted the seventh place on the FvD list for the March 2021 elections. Although, given the lousy recent polls, it's questionable if he would actually make it into parliament, the mere idea seems to have been too much for many other senior party members.
Last weekend several other important members, including number two Theo Hiddema and the FvD leaders in the Amsterdam city council and European Parliament, decided that enough was enough and Jansen had to go. The problem was that Baudet was so invested in Jansen that he could not let go of him. Then the opposition demanded, and got, an emergency meeting of the party board, of which Baudet was chairman.
Things went very fast then. Yesterday evening Baudet announced he would step down as party leader and would not be the number 1 on the list for the elections, although he would remain in parliament until the elections and was still interested in the last place on the list (a phenomenon I never described in detail). Initially it appeared he would stay on as party chairman, and thus continue to wield considerable power, but today it became clear that he was resigning as chair as well. Later today Hiddema announced he would leave parliament effective immediately and would not be available for a next term.
Fun fact: Hiddema has to be succeeded by the next person on the original FvD list, but she has already left the party and just confirmed she is not interested. The fourth on the list was Otten, exactly the person whose failed revolt triggered the party’s current woes. So Otten could return to parliament. But if he does so he has to give up his Senate seat, which could go to ... Hiddema! (It should be added that one of the FvD's central tenets was that the 'job carrousel' in Dutch politics must stop.)
That’s where we stand right now: the opposition appears to have won, and Baudet is gone. The FvD can now pick up the pieces — if any pieces remain to be picked up.
The FvD has been in trouble for a while. I already wrote about the problems with Otten back in Spring, and the resulting hilarious splits and mergers on the fringe of Dutch politics. Since that time the FvD has appeared unified, but apparently people got irritated by Baudet, and especially by his policy of Corona denial.
Even Wilders saw that he had to bow to reality and support the government’s Corona policies to a certain extent (though complaining that measures being either not strict enough or too strict was allowed). In Spring Baudet followed largely the same line, but that changed in Fall. It seems Baudet (and Jansen and other loyalists with him) decided that a firm denial of Corona, and thus of all extraordinary measures such as lockdowns, was the way forward. This turned out to be a bad choice electorally.
Already damaged by the Otten affair the FvD’s pro-Corona stance made it lose even more seats in the polls — right now it’s at about 7 seats, but that’s without measuring the fall-out of this last round of trouble.
Thus Baudet made serious mistakes, and people became unhappy with his leadership. This, more than any nazi apps, is likely the root cause of the revolt. Annabel Nanninga in particular, the FvD leader in Amsterdam, proved herself to be fairly anti-semite a while back, but she’s still one of the leaders of the revolt.
It’s clear that the big winner here is Wilders. The cunning plan was to let Wilders and FvD compete for the same votes, so that both would end up with, I don’t know, about 12 seats. It’s clear that that is not going to happen; Wilders remains at his current 20 seats or a bit above, while the FvD is going to go down considerably, losing at least 6 of its current 7 polled seats. So Wilders has won the struggle on the extreme right without ever doing anything but wait. He’s a canny one, Wilders.
What will Baudet do next? It’s unlikely that the FvD in its current form will want him on the list at all. Baudet founding a new party is certainly a possibility, and he might even draw some of the remaining FvD voters and win a seat. Say what you want, Baudet has charisma.
Who will become the next FvD leader? The only official candidate so far is Joost Eerdmans, who made a name for himself in local Rotterdam politics, where he headed LR, the only remaining shard of Pim Fortuyn’s political empire (see here for some details). But he never acted on the national stage, and it’s unclear if he has the charisma to pull off an election victory — however you define 'victory' right now for the FvD.
Will Otten return to the FvD? His original reason for splitting off was that he thought Baudet was too radical. Since the rest of the party now agrees with him, and since his PvdT experiment has failed (I owe you an update on that as well) he might return. Electorally that doesn’t really matter a lot, but he is supposed to have access to deep pockets, which never hurts. Then again, he’ll want something in return. The party leadership? He has no charisma to speak of.
No doubt more FvD politicians than just Eerdmans and possibly Otten will aim for the top job, and we can look forward to a new round of infighting that will damage the party even more. Right now the correct question is whether it will win even a single seat in March.
]]>Today we close this series with conservative-liberal current ruling party VVD.
]]>Since 2010 the VVD has taken over the CDA’s traditional role of ruling party, picking coalition partners at will (though not from the leftmost wing), becoming vaguer in terms of ideology, and having the most corruption scandals of all parties.
Still, it’s doing quite well so far. It appears that the 2021 elections will confirm this position. Party leader and prime minister Rutte is poopular amont right-wing voters, and maybe even among people in general due to his handling of the Corona crisis. The only question is if he will be available for a fourth term.
For more information and some history please re-read the 2010 profile I wrote.
Tradition dictates that a prime minister serves for three terms at most. Ruud Lubbers (CDA), so far the longest-serving prime minister (1982-1994), resigned after twelve years and three governments in the top job, and Balkenende (CDA; 2002-2010) did the same after three governments, though in his case they lasted for only eight years.
There’s no law, though; Rutte could theoretically go on serving until he dies of old age, provided the VVD members continue to vote him party leader and the voters in general continue to vote the VVD the largest party.
Part of the reason Lubbers and Balkenende resigned was that voters started to get tired of them — especially Balkenende. Right now, voters do not appear to be tired of Rutte yet. So that’s no reason for him to step down.
Around the start of his current government there were persistent rumours that Rutte would step back at the next elections and would be succeeded by VVD parliamentary leader Klaas Dijkhoff. Back in December 2019, though, Rutte said he doesn’t “necessarily” see Dijkhoff as his successor. Translation: I don’t want a crown prince at my side who is eager to plant a dagger in my back.
The VVD site is clear about the procedure. Rutte will decide on his position in Autumn (elsewhere I found a 1 December deadline), and after that VVD members decide whether he or someone else becomes party leader.
I fully expect Rutte to want to continue his tenure, and I fully expect the VVD to elect him. His position is very strong right now, and it seems likely the VVD will end up with roughly the same amount of seats as they hold today, making them the only medium-large party in the country.
If he would resign, and would wait with his announcement until December, the VVD would be forced to have either a leadership election (and they only need to look at the CDA to see the immense risks in that), or a new leader would be parachuted by a hazy backroom committee, but that would break the promise of an election.
All in all it’s much more likely that Rutte stays tham that he goes.
Parties | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VVD | 24 | 35 | 34 | 42 | 39 | 37 | 37 |
CDA+D66+CU | 32 | 31 | 33 | 32 | 36 | 36 | 36 |
PVV + FvD | 33 | 26 | 27 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 29 |
50Plus | 10 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |