New Politieke Barometer poll

The new Politieke Barometer poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.

The PvdA won seven seats, and that’s really a lot for just one week. Even in my dampened-down average the PvdA is now four seats larger than the CDA. It’s clear that the appointment of Cohen has been an excellent move.

Still, of these seven seats only one came from the right block. Six were taken from the other left-wing parties, three from D66, one from each of the others. It’s clear that a move to the centre is brewing.

As to D66, last week it won three seats, which it has lost now. I put this down to a temporary surge in sympathy due to party founder Hans van Mierlo’s death.

Interestingly, a pull to the centre might start on the right, too. The CDA won, despite all its leadership problems, while PVV and VVD lost. Oddly, Verdonk’s ToN returned in this poll, while the Politieke Barometer had given up on her weeks ago. Pity.

Wilders is now at 23 seats, which is quite a lot, but still the lowest score this year in any poll. Until now he oscillated in the 24-27 range. Still, this lower score may be a fluke — or the start of the exodus. I still peg him at 10-15 seats.

For the first time, a reasonably three-party coalition, PvdA+CDA+D66 centre-left, gets a bare majority of 76 seats. The trek to the centre has started.

A popularity poll (PDF) of all party leaders was also conducted. The score (out of 10):

  1. Cohen (PvdA) 6.6
  2. Pechtold (D66) 6.5
  3. Halsema (GL) 6.1
  4. Rutte (VVD) 5.9
  5. Roemer (SP) 5.6
  6. Van der Staaij (SGP) 5.5
  7. Rouvoet (CU) 5.3
  8. Balkenende (CDA) 4.7
  9. Thieme (PvdD) 4.6
  10. Wilders (PVV) 4.2
  11. Verdonk (ToN) 4.0

That’s pretty clear. Cohen on top, Balkenende and Wilders far below. Four of the top five come from the left. (Not that that will help the left to a majority, but still.)

<— Party profile — CU | Party profile — PvdD —>

This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.

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