Posts in the PVV category.
Part of Parties.
There will be general elections next March, and the dozen-plus-a-few Dutch parties are preparing for them. It’s time for another series of party profiles. We’ll go in order from small to large according to the August 2020 polls.
Today we’ll continue with the lower-class-based narrow-nationalist Islam-bashing PVV led by Geert Wilders.
Geert Wilders’s PVV is going to run in Rotterdam’s local elections, but messed up with selecting its local leader. The first item is bigger news than you might think. The second item isn’t — it’s typical of the total lack of vetting that characterises the PVV.
The formation discussions are continuing slowly. Nobody expects to have anything to say for the next few weeks, and at the request of Klaver (GL) Fridays are non-negotiation days so he can spend time with his small children. I’m not sure how much the other parties like this, but they have agreed to it. Everybody is in let’s-take-this-easy mode.
Meanwhile, some snippets that might be of interest:
Three weeks before the elections the state of the race is still quite vague. The parties are starting up their campaign, but the polls aren’t moving a lot. What’s going on?
Yesterday 50Plus, the party for the angry elderly, announced what is called a “break point” — a declaration of an absolute demand in the coming coalition negotiations. Other parties will have to accede to the demand, or the party in question will refuse to support a coalition.
The Dutch elections are on 15th of March, and in the current international political climate they could take on an importance that goes well beyond our national parliament. Pundits and commentators might (ab)use the results to make predictions on the upcoming French and German elections (which will take place in April/May and September, respectively). So let’s take a look at the current situation, starting on the right, where the action is.
Contrary to all expectations the VVD+PvdA Rutte II government is likely to reach the end of its natural life. Elections are slated for 15 March 2017, and it seems likely government will not fall before that date. This would be the first time since 1998 that government survives unscathed until the next regular elections.
Now that all politicians have returned from recess they are starting up their electioneering; not yet with a fully-fledged campaign (that will happen only in February or so), but with positioning their party to go into the elections as a favourite. Most political moves of the next seven months will be aimed squarely at 15 March.
When it rains, it pours. Wilders is getting himself into more and more problems. He denied having done anything wrong. Still, defections are continuing and the VVD now also turns away from the PVV.
Just before the local elections of Wednesday, at a party rally in Den Haag, Geert Wilders asked his audience whether they wanted more or less Moroccans in town. Unsurprisingly, the crowd shouted “Less! Less!” Answered Wilders: “We’ll arrange that.”
Updated a few hours after original publication with news of the PVV meltdown.
What initially seemed a (for him) pretty standard tactic seems to be blowing up in Wilders’s face, to the extent that he’s losing his people at an incredible rate.
Back in the good old days there were three parties: PvdA on the left, CDA in the centre, and VVD on the right.
From 1946 to 1994 the CDA (and its predecessor parties) sat in government and decided on a case-by-case basis whether to form a coalition with PvdA or VVD. Then the CDA itself started to belong to the right but that didn’t change its position in politics. It could go over left, and did so occasionally just to remind the VVD.
The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore, just like in 2010, I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of winning seats. We’ll go from smallest to largest.
Today we’ll continue with extreme-right PVV, Geert Wilders’s party.
Sorry for the long silence; I’ve been very busy first, very lazy afterwards. But here’s a quick round-up of what’s happened in the past few weeks.
This week was less hectic than last, but still plenty of things are happening.
There are two main items this week: the fall-out of the austerity agreement, and the CDA leadership election. But first, a sad anniversary.
29 April 2012
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Buma, CDA, Coalitions, D66, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, Samsom, VVD, Verhagen
This week was a spectacular one in Dutch politics, with expectations starting very low but climbing to dizzying heights at the end of the week, after a five-party austerity agreement was reached. Winners: D66, CU, and maybe GL and CDA. Losers: PvdA and possibly the PVV.
21 April 2012
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This is just in: Geert Wilders has left the consultations with VVD and CDA, and government is in danger. We’ll likely have new elections in September or so.
Before continuing I’d like to thank all Dutch politicians for waiting for my homecoming before doing anything really spectacular. I’ve been in the US for the past three weeks, and have had no time for updates, even though interesting things have happened in Dutch politics. But the main item, Wilders basically retreating from the coalition, happened only just now.
27 February 2012
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With the PvdA sucession becoming the hottest political topic I haven’t yet had the time to discuss another important shift: Wilders’s switch to attacking Eastern Europeans instead of Muslims.
Not that he suddenly loves Muslims, but right now he’s specifically targeting the Polish, Rumanian, Bulgarian, and other odd people from the fringes of civilisation (i.e. Eastern Europe) who come to the Netherlands to take away our jobs.
Ipsos, which also polls for the Politieke Barometer, has released a paper on SP and PVV voters. The main conclusion is that no less than 7% of Dutch voters are willing to vote for both SP and PVV, while about a quarter of them is willing to vote SP but not PVV, and about the same amount PVV but not SP.
The new Politieke Barometer poll was just released, and it confirms the PVV-to-SP trend. SP +7, PVV -4. See the polls page for the updated averages and coalitions.
As I reported earlier the polls indicate that the SP is winning seats from the PVV. Geert Wilders is getting nervous and has opened the attack. Unfortunately for him, the SP is not the only danger.
The new Peil.nl poll has been released and I added it to the polls page. In addition, Peil.nl released some extra polling focused on the SP.
Lots of news on the polls front. The PVV drops rather sharply, the SP rises accordingly, and TNS-NIPO starts polling — more or less.
So before it falls, let’s quickly describe the Rutte government now that it’s been in power for about a year and a half. The most important take-away for foreigners is that Geert Wilders does not sit in government. Instead he promised ... gedoogsteun.
We’ve run into a serious translation problem. I have found no directly equivalent English term for gedoogsteun. Still, some help from my Twitter followers unearthed the fact that both Canada and New Zealand have had a similar construct, but no specific name for it. Denmark, too, has made extensive use of gedoogsteun, but I don’t speak Danish and I doubt they translated their name for it into English.
Informer Rosenthal has announced that he sees no possibility of getting a right-wing government. The CDA wants VVD and PVV to reach an agreement first, while the PVV demands that all three parties participate in the negotiations.
The negotiations for a right-wing VVD+PVV+CDA government have hardly gone on for a few days, and the participants are already positioning themselves to blame someone else if they fail. Right now Wilders is in a better position in the blame game, and that could be dangerous.
Well, it seems there will be negotiations for a right-wing coalition. As regular readers know I applaud this: let Wilders show how much (or little) interested in governing he is.
Some minor points:
Peil.nl and TNS-NIPO have both released new polls, which I’ve added to the polls page.
31 May 2010
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Balkenende, CDA, Cohen, Immigrants, PVV, PvdD
Some minor points:
Where Wilders’s PVV has been a glowing example of disciplined behaviour until now, with no other PVV politician even hinting at criticism of party leader Wilders, during an interview last Sunday the second-best-known PVV MP, Hero Brinkman, called for more internal party democracy.
6 May 2010
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CDA, CU, D66, GL, Local elections, PVV, PvdA, PvdD, SGP, SP, ToN, VVD
In the past six weeks or so I haven’t been as active on this blog as I’d planned, but in the end this is a personal side project that I either have time for or don’t. Fortunately the past weeks were also relatively quiet on the political front. The local elections have run their course, and the parties are now gearing up for the general elections.
The campaign will start in two weeks or so, because late April/early May features a few Dutch-only holidays: Queen’s Day on 30 April, Remembrance Day on 4 May, and Liberation Day on 5 May. (The latter two both celebrate our liberation from the nazis in 1945). Besides, there’s a two-week school holiday right now, and many voters are abroad on some beach or so. Little sense in starting up your campaign now.
19 April 2010
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Balkenende, CDA, Cohen, D66, GL, PVV, Polls, PvdA, SP, VVD, Wilders
Peil.nl had published a new poll in which respondents were asked for their wishes and expectations regarding coalitions and prime ministers. There are a few nuggets in here.
Both Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer have published new polls, and I’ve added them to the polls page.
Because I’ve been unable to work on this blog last week we’ve got a backlog of interesting stuff. So I’ll run a series of quick updates on a variety of topics.
First the local negotiations in Den Haag.
It’s time to return to the local coalition negotiations in Rotterdam, Almere, and Den Haag. All three are unusual in that a large right-wing party (Leefbaar Rotterdam and twice Wilders’s PVV) challenges the might of the local PvdA.
Besides, monitoring these negotiations will be a useful practice run for June and July, when this blog will mainly discuss the national coalition negotiations.
Today we close off with Den Haag.
In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)
Today we continue with Right.
The new Peil.nl poll has landed. Also, it seems TNS NIPO has finally started up election polling. In addition to yesterday’s release it turns out they conducted a poll about a month ago, but that one hasn’t been officially published. I added both to the polls page. I expect the new Politieke Barometer poll tonight.
30 March 2010
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CDA, CU, D66, Immigrants, Minor parties, PVV, PvdD, SGP, Van der Staaij, Wilders
Some small fry from the past ten days that might be of interest to political observers:
The new Peil.nl poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.
Here, too, there’s little change. PvdA wins two seats, one each from GL and D66, VVD also wins two seats, one each from CDA and PVV. Just like in Thursday’s Politieke Barometer the PVV starts to go down ever so slightly, the SP halts is downward trend, and the CDA vacillates but generally goes down. No change in left vs. right, but the broad centre (PvdA, D66, CDA, VVD) wins one seat from each of the flanks.
On my scoreboard the battle for second place after PvdA has started, and it’s exclusively between the three parties of the right. If the VVD captures two more seats from the CDA, it is the second-largest party of the country.
The Purple coalition rises some more (it contains both winners PvdA and VVD, after all), and is now at the same level as the coalition on the right.
An extra question was asked about the tax deductability of interest payments on mortgages.
The new Politieke Barometer poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.
Not much to see; one seat from PVV to VVD, one from CDA to CU, one from GL to SP. The CDA is clearly not yet done with its slide, although the momentum has lessened. Conversely, we might see a PVV slide momentum building up. The SP seems to have hit the low point; this is the first time it has won a seat in any poll this year. The centre-left coalition lost one seat and goes back to 75.
I expect the polls to change only gradually in the next few weeks, unless something dramatic happens. The PvdA’s reward for blowing up government has now been accounted for; it’s the other parties’ move.
I do expect a few trends to surface. Has Wilders’s inevitable slide down to about 12-15 seats started yet? Will the CDA go down even more or stabilise? Will the left block win more seats from the right, or has equilibrium been reached?
An extra poll tells us something about how Dutch voters select a party. This topic has been discussed in the comments recently, and it’s nice to be able to show some figures.
In order to properly prepare you for what’s going to happen after the elections it’s time to talk about coalitions. Dutch parties and voters have been thinking about them from the start, and they are everyone’s number 2 priority (number 1 being “How do I get as many votes as possible?” or “Which party shall I vote for?”)
Today we’ll start with a broad overview. Separate posts will discuss each of the five most likely coalitions.
It’s time to return to the local coalition negotiations in Rotterdam, Almere, and Den Haag. All three are unusual in that a large right-wing party (Leefbaar Rotterdam and twice Wilders’s PVV) challenges the might of the local PvdA.
Besides, monitoring these negotiations will be a useful practice run for June and July, when this blog will mainly discuss the national coalition negotiations.
Today we continue with Almere.
20 March 2010
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Balkenende, CDA, Coalitions, Cohen, D66, GL, Leers, PVV, Polls, PvdA, VVD, Verhagen, Wilders
Oh my, the new Peil.nl poll has landed two days early. I’ve added it to the polls page.
The timing is surprising, the content isn’t. Basically it confirms Thursday’s poll in that the PvdA wins five seats, of which one comes from the right, two from D66, and one each from GL and SP. The centre-left PvdA+CDA+D66 coalition does not yet have a majority in this poll, but does win two seats.
18 March 2010
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Balkenende, CDA, Cohen, D66, Halsema, PVV, Pechtold, Polls, PvdA, Roemer, Rouvoet, Rutte, Thieme, ToN, VVD, Van der Staaij, Verdonk, Wilders
The new Politieke Barometer poll has landed, and I’ve added it to the polls page.
The PvdA won seven seats, and that’s really a lot for just one week. Even in my dampened-down average the PvdA is now four seats larger than the CDA. It’s clear that the appointment of Cohen has been an excellent move.
The Dutch nine-to-twelve-party system is sometimes hard to understand for foreigners; especially when the small parties come into play. Therefore I’m running a mini-series that treats all eleven parties that stand a decent chance of getting seats in the upcoming elections. We’ll go from largest to smallest.
Today we’ll continue with Geert Wilders’s PVV. It is by far the longest party profile I’ve written or will write.
9 March 2010
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CDA, Local elections, PVV, PvdA, VVD
Curiously, right now the major Dutch newspapers, except for De Telegraaf, are all but ignoring the single most important story in Dutch politics right now: the Almere formation. An update is in order.
5 March 2010
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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, D66, Debates, GL, Halsema, Kant, Local elections, PVV, Pechtold, PvdA, Roemer, Rutte, SP, ToN, VVD, Verdonk, Wilders
On Wednesday Dutch voted for their local councils, and the result is interesting. SP leader Kant resigns, Wilders’s PVV the largest party in one city, PvdA and CDA lose, D66 wins.
Before we continue, one housekeeping note: I will be away for the weekend, and there will be no updates to this blog. Publication will resume on Monday.
2 March 2010
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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, CU, PVV, PvdA, Rouvoet, ToN, VVD, Van Geel, Verhagen, Wilders
Some small fry that might be of interest to political observers:
28 February 2010
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Balkenende, Bos, CU, Cohen, D66, Eurlings, Halsema, Immigrants, Kant, Minor parties, PVV, Pechtold, Polls, Rouvoet, Rutte, Verdonk, Verhagen, Wilders
Some small fry that might be of interest to political observers:
25 February 2010
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Balkenende, Bos, CDA, Cohen, Eurlings, PVV, Polls, PvdA, Wilders
Oh my, Peil.nl has published more polls, and they consistently show that Bos’s gamble is still paying off.
This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.
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