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They disagree on the details, but common points are that CDA and VVD win slightly, the PVV loses slightly, and SP and GL start to withstand the pull of the PvdA. In the Politieke Barometer the PvdA even loses three seats; the first loss since Cohen was named party leader. PvdA and CDA are both at 30 seats in this poll; in the Peil.nl poll the difference is far larger, and the VVD is the second party.
Coalition-wise the big winners of a few weeks back, centre-left and Purple, lose a few seats. The largest three-party coalition is now right (CDA+VVD+PVV), but they’re still below the magic 76 seats, and I still do not believe Wilders will participate in any coalition, even though by now he seems to have understood that he has to at least appear willing to negotiate.
All in all we see a right-wing upswing, while the left is temporarily down. An explanation might be that the Cohen effect is now a given, and not an exciting novelty, and voters are starting to look around a bit more.
Still, the right hardly wins votes from the left; voter movements primarily take place within the blocks. Right wing voters are starting to leave Wilders, and left-wingers take another look at the smaller parties instead of the PvdA.
Nothing definitive here, and the mood will probably change when the election campaign truly starts; let’s say in another week or two.
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Both Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer have published new polls, and I’ve added them to the polls page.
They disagree on the details, but common points are that CDA and VVD win slightly, the PVV loses slightly, and SP and GL start to withstand the pull of the PvdA. In the Politieke Barometer the PvdA even loses three seats; the first loss since Cohen was named party leader. PvdA and CDA are both at 30 seats in this poll; in the Peil.nl poll the difference is far larger, and the VVD is the second party.
Coalition-wise the big winners of a few weeks back, centre-left and Purple, lose a few seats. The largest three-party coalition is now right (CDA+VVD+PVV), but they’re still below the magic 76 seats, and I still do not believe Wilders will participate in any coalition, even though by now he seems to have understood that he has to at least appear willing to negotiate.
All in all we see a right-wing upswing, while the left is temporarily down. An explanation might be that the Cohen effect is now a given, and not an exciting novelty, and voters are starting to look around a bit more.
Still, the right hardly wins votes from the left; voter movements primarily take place within the blocks. Right wing voters are starting to leave Wilders, and left-wingers take another look at the smaller parties instead of the PvdA.
Nothing definitive here, and the mood will probably change when the election campaign truly starts; let’s say in another week or two.
<— Negotiations to watch — Amsterdam | Polls, polls, polls — coalitions and prime ministers —>
This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.
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