The Peil.nl one has VVD, GL, and SP winning one seat each and PvdA, CDA and PVV losing one each. Net result: one seat from right to left, just as in the recent Politieke Barometer poll.

The TNS-NIPO poll, which was released slightly later, predicts a much larger win for the SP: no less than four extra seats for the socialists, drawn from PvdA and GL (one each) and D66 (two). Meanwhile on the right VVD and CDA each win one seat, while PVV and ToN lose one each. (Until this poll, ToN still had one seat according to TNS-NIPO).

Still I doubt the validity of this poll: it says that the SGP will win one seat for a total of three. This is incorrect: the SGP will win two seats, not three (and not one, either). This gives a net result of one seat from the right block to the christian block.

All three pollsters now put the PVV firmly at 17 seats. From February on I predicted Wilders would win 12 to 15 seats. It’s now clear that his final score will be in the upper reach of that interval, but I sure hope the VVD can win two more seats from the PVV. We wouldn’t want my predictions to be worthless now, would we?

It’s clear meanwhile that Roemer’s excellent debate performance is helping the SP. Still, there’s no mass exodus of left-wing voters from the PvdA, but that might happen after all in the voting booth (most likely because disappointed PvdA voters stay home).

Coalition-wise all this does not matter much. VVD+CDA+PVV, as well as VVD+PvdA+(SP or GL or D66) are still the only possible three-party coalitions. And it seems likely Rutte will go over right initially. (What happens later during the formation, when Wilders will have proven himself to be unreliable, is anyone’s guess.)

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Two new polls

Peil.nl and TNS-NIPO have both released new polls, which I’ve added to the polls page.

The Peil.nl one has VVD, GL, and SP winning one seat each and PvdA, CDA and PVV losing one each. Net result: one seat from right to left, just as in the recent Politieke Barometer poll.

The TNS-NIPO poll, which was released slightly later, predicts a much larger win for the SP: no less than four extra seats for the socialists, drawn from PvdA and GL (one each) and D66 (two). Meanwhile on the right VVD and CDA each win one seat, while PVV and ToN lose one each. (Until this poll, ToN still had one seat according to TNS-NIPO).

Still I doubt the validity of this poll: it says that the SGP will win one seat for a total of three. This is incorrect: the SGP will win two seats, not three (and not one, either). This gives a net result of one seat from the right block to the christian block.

All three pollsters now put the PVV firmly at 17 seats. From February on I predicted Wilders would win 12 to 15 seats. It’s now clear that his final score will be in the upper reach of that interval, but I sure hope the VVD can win two more seats from the PVV. We wouldn’t want my predictions to be worthless now, would we?

It’s clear meanwhile that Roemer’s excellent debate performance is helping the SP. Still, there’s no mass exodus of left-wing voters from the PvdA, but that might happen after all in the voting booth (most likely because disappointed PvdA voters stay home).

Coalition-wise all this does not matter much. VVD+CDA+PVV, as well as VVD+PvdA+(SP or GL or D66) are still the only possible three-party coalitions. And it seems likely Rutte will go over right initially. (What happens later during the formation, when Wilders will have proven himself to be unreliable, is anyone’s guess.)

<— Small fry, 1 June | Vote! —>

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