The new Peil.nl poll has landed and I added it to the polls page.
One seat from CDA to CU, one to the VVD from CDA, PvdA, and D66.
The VVD now takes a clear leap from the PvdA: 37 vs. 31. The VVD is now only one seat away from its best ever score of 38 seats in 1998, while the PvdA is falling back a little.
Still, the campaigns are only getting underway now, so there’s still plenty of time for this trend to turn around. If Cohen gets what he wants, SP, GL, and D66 voters are now starting to understand that they have to reinforce the PvdA in order to make it the largest party.
Conversely, Rutte can still suck some seats from CDA and PVV; at least, that’s what he has to hope for. In recent weeks the VVD gains came mostly from the CDA, not so much from the PVV. My guess is that that will turn around now, and that the PVV will bleed some more seats to the VVD while the CDA remains stable.
In any case, in my average there are now two possible three-party coalitions: PvdA+VVD+D66 and PvdA+VVD+GL. Both have a rather slim majority, so maybe it’s best to try for a PvdA+VVD+D66+GL coalition just to be on the safe side.
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This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.