TNS-NIPO really starts; changes to polls page

Well, it seems the TNS NIPO poll has finally become a weekly feature. I’ve added it to the polls page.

This poll has always been a bit of an outlyer; while the other two show the CDA at 26 seats, TNS-NIPO gives it only 21 seats, and divides the difference among PVV, D66, and CU. Odd. This poll has the worst track record of the three, so believe what you want.

I’ve made quite a few changes to the polls page. I now weight the three pollsters, and I’ve changed my calculations by using the Dutch election rules themselves on the polls; a nice touch, I feel. Besides, it allows me to get rid of the unassigned seats, which were becoming annoying.

The net result is that the Purple coalition is now officially possible in my average, as it is in every single poll. 76 seats.

Finally I added Senate information to all parties and coalitions. I’ll discuss this topic in more detail in a future post.

<— National Bash the Centre Parties Day | New Peil.nl poll —>

This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.

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Comments (closed)

1 Posted by Sander Aarts on 23 May 2010 | Permalink

Again, ToN is still in the coalition game, although they have 0 seats according to the current polls. A 'seats > 0' would be in place.

2 Posted by ppk on 24 May 2010 | Permalink

Sorry, I can't do that. While on average ToN has 0 seats, it's still got one seat in the TNS poll, and that seat has to remain visible in the game. It might matter, after all.

3 Posted by Sander Aarts on 25 May 2010 | Permalink

But the game only works with the averages, which in their case is 0 at the moment. So within the context of the game they should not be able to enter any coalition.
If their average should raise to 1 again, they should be re-enter of course. Therefore my suggestion to 'simply' add a seat > 0 condition.

Anyway, love the articles, overviews and the game ;)

4 Posted by Sander Aarts on 26 May 2010 | Permalink

Ah, now I see. I overlooked the fact that the resulting coalitions are given per pollster instead of using the averages.

5 Posted by ppk on 28 May 2010 | Permalink

Yup. As long as ToN has at least one seat in one poll I can't remove it. Besides, it's pretty tricky to do so for technical reasons; I made a lot of errors in creating the polls page.