Oh my, it seems Peil.nl is publishing a daily poll now. After yesterday’s poll, today brings a new one. I added it to the polls page but removed yesterday’s. Right now my system assumes all pollsters publish with roughly the same interval, and for now I want to retain that feature. (I’m afraid I won’t have the time to rewrite the polling page before the elections.)
In any case, compared to yesterday the CDA loses two seats, one of which ends up with the PVV (through the VVD, one assumes), and one to D66. The PvdD also loses one, which ends up with the SP.
So the SP is clearly moving up again, while the PVV is fluctuating in the 17-18 range. The CDA, meanwhile, still has a problem. That doesn’t rule out a last-minute rally of frightened centrist voters, but chances of that happening decrease with every new poll.
Even in my weighted average the SP now has 12 seats, while D66 and GL still have ten each. That means that seats are being removed from the broad centre of Dutch politics, but that’s been going on forever since PvdA and VVD became too centrist.
Coalition-wise nothing much has changed; the largely theoretical VVD+PvdA+SP coalition is now one seat larger than right-wing VVD+CDA+PVV, but I mainly include the first coalition because it was quoted somewhere as the only Purple variation that has a Senate majority. Still, chances of this coalition actually being instated are minuscule.
Let’s see if tomorrow brings yet another poll.
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This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.