Yet another poll

Oh my, it seems Peil.nl is publishing a daily poll now. After yesterday’s poll, today brings a new one. I added it to the polls page but removed yesterday’s. Right now my system assumes all pollsters publish with roughly the same interval, and for now I want to retain that feature. (I’m afraid I won’t have the time to rewrite the polling page before the elections.)

In any case, compared to yesterday the CDA loses two seats, one of which ends up with the PVV (through the VVD, one assumes), and one to D66. The PvdD also loses one, which ends up with the SP.

So the SP is clearly moving up again, while the PVV is fluctuating in the 17-18 range. The CDA, meanwhile, still has a problem. That doesn’t rule out a last-minute rally of frightened centrist voters, but chances of that happening decrease with every new poll.

Even in my weighted average the SP now has 12 seats, while D66 and GL still have ten each. That means that seats are being removed from the broad centre of Dutch politics, but that’s been going on forever since PvdA and VVD became too centrist.

Coalition-wise nothing much has changed; the largely theoretical VVD+PvdA+SP coalition is now one seat larger than right-wing VVD+CDA+PVV, but I mainly include the first coalition because it was quoted somewhere as the only Purple variation that has a Senate majority. Still, chances of this coalition actually being instated are minuscule.

Let’s see if tomorrow brings yet another poll.

<— Vote! | Left-wing undecideds decide; 6-seat shift —>

This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.

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Comments (closed)

1 Posted by Raphael on 1 June 2010 | Permalink

Thanks again for collecting all that stuff. Given that the election is just a bit more than a week away, could you post a short description of how a Dutch election evening looks like? Given that you use pure proportional representation, am I right to assume that results are not reported place by place over the course of the night as they are in the US and the UK? Do Dutch elections look like elections in Germany, with one short moment of tension, and most of the time, after that moment it's mostly over with some hours of minor corrections while most people already start the post-mortems?

2 Posted by Joost Diepenmaat on 2 June 2010 | Permalink

@Raphael

Election reports are delivered place by place, since election results are collected locally.

Since we've moved away from voting machines back to pencil and paper, it will probably take quite a while before any reasonable approximation of the outcome becomes clear. Some time in the very early morning, probably.

3 Posted by Joost Diepenmaat on 2 June 2010 | Permalink

Addendum: keep in mind that even though we have proportional representation, that doesn't mean results are similar all over the country. Some regions are much more conservative than others, just like some regions are much more religious than others. You need a good spread of data over the whole country including a few big cities (which tend to vote quite differently from their surroundings) to make any kind of decent prediction.

4 Posted by Gerben on 4 June 2010 | Permalink

Election night starts at 21:00 with an exit poll, which is then slowly adjusted while local results trickle in. Around midnight, 80 to 90% of the votes have been counted, including the big cities, and provisional results are announced, which are not based on the exit polls anymore.