Left-wing undecideds decide; 6-seat shift

The latest Politieke Barometer poll is out, and it reports nothing less than a six-seat shift to the left. This changes the polls page considerably.

VVD, CDA, and PVV each lose two seats, and GL one. This brings both CDA and PVV to historical lows, while the VVD has lost seats for the first time in weeks. Moreover, the PVV is now finally in the 12-15 seats zone I predicted back in February.

These seats are picked up by the SP (4), D66 (2), and the PvdA (1). That results in a 6-seat right-to-left movement, and I count it as support for my undecideds theory. Currently undecided left-wing voters are making up their minds, start to influence the polls again, and seats seem to flow from right to left.

Besides, there may be a genuine shift from PVV to SP, although that’s hard to prove from these figures. In any case many people seem to have doubted whether they’d support the SP again, but have now decided they will. D66 also seems to draw a few moderate right-wing voters and left-wing doubters. The big loser on the left is GL, which has not drawn a lot of undecideds.

Coalition-wise the VVD+PvdA+GL variant has lost its majority, and the right-wing VVD+CDA+PVV hangs precariously in the balance at 76 seats. For the first time in weeks a four-party coalition without the VVD is possible, the otherwise not very likely PvdA+CDA+SP+D66.

Now let’s see if the other polls report a similar movement.

<— Yet another poll | Housekeeping, coalitions, and CDA leadership —>

This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.


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