New post-debate poll; next debate coming

The new Politieke Barometer poll has landed, two days earlier than normal due to the debate, and I added it to the polls page.

The CDA is clearly recovering. It wins two seats from the PvdA and one from the CU. Meanwhile the VVD takes a D66 seat and the SP another PvdA seat. Not good for Cohen, but the main winner appears to be Balkenende, not Rutte. Apparently he’s done enough to stabilise the CDA.

Tonight another debate will take place between the leaders of the eight largest parties, which will add Pechtold (D66), Halsema (GL), Roemer (SP), and Rouvoet (CU) to the four large party leaders who debated on Friday. I’m especially curious about Roemer, who will make his debut on the national stage.

I suspect that some PvdA voters are reconsidering but haven’t yet decided whether to go to another left-wing party, and if so which one. The presence of the D66, GL, and SP party leaders in a major debate will help these lost voters make up their minds, and I expect some shifts to take place in favour of the smaller left-wing parties. But which one(s)?

<— Polls and coalition update | Cohen apologises for errors and changes —>

This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.

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