Polls and coalition update

Last Friday the new Politieke Barometer poll landed and I added it to the polls page. I didn’t come around to discussing it yet.

The poll confirms the current trend: the VVD is distincly larger than the PvdA, even in my average. In the past weeks the VVD has won seats from CDA and PVV, but also from the left, notably D66. This poll returns one seat to the PVV, though, and GL also wins one. That doesn’t change a lot in the averages, although the PVV has now for the first time won a seat since I started tracking the polls. Let’s hope that’s temporary.

Coalition-wise the result is much more interesting: right now there is no three- or four-party coalition possible without the VVD. PvdA and CDA need no less than three other parties to form a government.

Purple (PvdA+VVD+D66), Amsterdam (PvdA+VVD+GL) and right-wing (CDA+VVD+PVV) are now all barely possible. Although in the debate it seemed that Rutte and Wilders spared each other a little, and it’s certainly possible to view this as a delicate feeler for coalition opportunities, I continue to believe that Wilders doesn’t really want to enter government. He has far more success as an opposition party.

Combine Wilders’s reluctance with the clear preference Rutte has shown for the CDA, and we’re seeing a centre-right coalition looming, in which CDA and VVD will need quite a bit of reinforcement, however. D66 is an obvious third party, but even that coalition won’t be enough for a majority and one more party will be needed. I consider GL and CU, in that order, the most likely candidates.

Pretty much any combination without Wilders requires both D66 and GL. That’s interesting, and it might help the Democrats and GreenLefts. People want to vote for a winner, and ideally that’s a party that wins seats and ascends to government. Combine that with Cohen’s weak performance in the debate, and we see a possibility of the PvdA going down with GL and D66 winning.

There have been no polls yet since the debate; I’m eagerly awaiting the next series, which will show what influence (if any) the debate has had.

<— The 23 May debate | New post-debate poll; next debate coming —>

This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.

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