Polls and new coalitions

Both Peil.nl and the Politieke Barometer have published new polls, and I’ve added them to the polls page. I have also greatly increased the number of coalitions on the polls page.

Both polls move one seat from CDA to CU, one from PVV to VVD, and one from D66 to the PvdD. Peil.nl moves one seat from PvdA to GL.

The first two moves confirm the trend in recent weeks: on the right the VVD is on a winning streak with both CDA and PVV losing seats. This trend will only become stronger if, as expected, PvdA and VVD start to attack each other while ignoring both CDA and PVV.

The situation on the left is murkier: essentially one or two seats move at random between the parties. Right now the PvdA has more to gain from a show-off with the VVD: that might allow the social-democrats to suck serious amounts of seats from the other left-wing parties.

The VVD is now the largest party in both polls and my dampened average, but the score is VVD 33 vs. PvdA 32, so this proves little, except that the CDA has been firmly relegated to third-party status — for now.

I’ve greatly increased the number of coalitions on the polls page. The election results might be murky, and in that case a lot of unlikely coalitions will suddenly acquire a new lease of life, especially the marginal four-party ones. Right now no three-party coalitions win a majority, so a fourth party is inevitable. That might change with the elections, though.

The position of GL is becoming especially interesting. Until now I firmly categorised is as a potential fourth party in a Purple or centre-left coalition, but now that it is becoming roughly as large as D66, it might make sense to see it as a potential third party, ousting D66 from that role.

PvdA+VVD+GL? PvdA+CDA+GL? These coalitions are slowly becoming possible, and we should keep an eye on them. The Green-Lefts are pantingly eager to participate in government, just as the CU was after the last elections, and they might be easier to talk to than D66.

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This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.


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