The University of Amsterdam and political TV programme Een Vandaag recently released interesting research on the preferences of Dutch voters, and their supposed volatility.
Their conclusions are that it’s political parties more than voters who are volatile, moving now to the left, then to the right. Voter preferences hardly change, but voters more and more need to switch parties regularly in order to vote according to their preferences.
In addition, the paper finds that it’s voters from any sort of middle group (income, education, or political preference) that are most volatile. There is no more centre party, apparently. CDA is too confused, D66 too much for higher-educated city dwellers.
The research confirms the existence of a left and a right block, with fairly little traffic between them. The left consists of SP, GL, and PvdA, and the right of CDA, VVD, and PVV. In this paper D66 is the only true centre party, catching votes from both left and right. In addition, the paper sees very little vote exchange between PvdA and CDA. It does not say anything about movement between SP and PVV, but the most recent polls suggest that such a move is definitely going on.
In my mental model there are three conduits that allow voters to move from right to left. If these three voter movements take place simultaneously, the left wins a lot of seats from the right (or vice versa):
The paper agrees on VVD-to-D66, but adds that many CDA voters, too, may consider the Democrats. Though the numbers support that conclusion up to a point, the amount of VVD-to-D66 switchers is still much larger than the amount of CDA-to-D66 switchers. I always thought that the CDA was too socially conservative to have much in common with D66, and from these numbers that appears to be true up to a point. Not all CDA voters are social conservaties, though: some are just genuinely centrist, and for them D66 remains an alternative.
The paper also says there’s hardly any evidence for voter movement between PvdA and CDA. That may be so, but the research is only about 2006 and later — exactly the period that both these parties performed their incredible shrinking act. If both of them lose voters it’s only natural that they don’t exchange any: unhappy right-wing PvdA voters casting around for an alternative won’t like an equally confused CDA, and will instead opt for D66. So I’d like to revisit this voter conduit once at least one of the two parties performs well in the polls.
As to the PVV to SP conduit: the current crop of polls makes clear that it is in fine working order. The paper doesn’t dissect this conduit in detail, but it’s clearly there (see for instance table 4.1, page 32).
Finally, the paper gives the various parties some strategic advice. There are several interesting points here:
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This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.
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2 Posted by Malcolm on 30 January 2012 | Permalink
So, to save me practising my Nederlands, does the report rate the different parties according to the volatility of their political positions?
I'm curious which party is most like Henkel, sticking "New improved" on their boxes of Persil...
3 Posted by ppk on 30 January 2012 | Permalink
"Surely a clearer reason is that 2006-2010 they were in government together. There would be no point a CDA voter with PvdA sympathies switching."
Yes, that's a fair argument.
"But is [GL] different enough from the SP?"
No. That's its main problem right now.
"In the short term, isn't GL a good whip party for D66,"
D66 hasn't betrayed its voters (at least, not in the past six years or so) so it has less need of a whip party. I don't think GL can survive as such.
4 Posted by David on 30 January 2012 | Permalink
It looks like some of the loss of support for the PVV is coming from it caving to what the VVD/CDA coalition wants while being given as little as possible in return. This would explain why many of the PVV voters are moving to the SP: they think that the party is abandoning their economic views for not much. How much are unclear or shifting economic stances hurting the PVV, especially since its focus on immigrants cannot hold massive interest forever?
5 Posted by D on 30 January 2012 | Permalink
Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but it's not just potential SP voters he's in danger of losing. Wilders needs some wins as he is currently in pretty much his ideal coalition short of being PM - the government must rely on him or use the PvdA, which they don't want to do.
If he can't make serious gains (the classic comparator is the German Greens shutting down its nuclear reactors), some of his more Islamophobic voters will either move to abstention, concluding that Wilders' platform is not practical (without an unlikely majority for exiting the EU) or accept that their other political values are better served by the other parties.
To this point, Wilders' appeal has been that he has been persistent. But unless his fans think he will gain a majority, he needs other parties, and if he can't make gains from the Rutte government, he's no good to his base.
6 Posted by ppk on 31 January 2012 | Permalink
Interesting, D. You're completely right that Wilders will have to show something to his voters, and that he doesn't have a lot yet.
Have to think some more on this, but it could be yet another reason why he's going down in the polls right now.
If you're right we could expect a major anti-Islam initiative any day now.
1 Posted by D on 29 January 2012 | Permalink
"That may be so, but the research is only about 2006 and later — exactly the period that both these parties performed their incredible shrinking act."
Surely a clearer reason is that 2006-2010 they were in government together. There would be no point a CDA voter with PvdA sympathies switching.
Also, perhaps CDA to D66 traffic prior to the elections are people who are not enthusiastic about D66 but might be voting tactically to stop Wilders without rewarding PvdA for leaving Balkenende IV. They could be hoping for VVD/CDA/D66 (+GL?) and might prefer Purple to anything involving Wilders.
"So GL either has to move to the left, or is bound for obsolescence."
But is it different enough from the SP?
In the short term, isn't GL a good whip party for D66, whom voters might not trust to support a left coalition (and are more likely to be problematic in the event that SP+GL+PvdA+CDA is possible)?
The main question then is whether there are enough D66 voters who prefer Left or Centre-left over Purple for this to be worthwhile.