Polls swing from PVV to SP

Lots of news on the polls front. The PVV drops rather sharply, the SP rises accordingly, and TNS-NIPO starts polling — more or less.

All pollsters have now released their first poll of the new year. The Politieke Barometer and Peil.nl agree that the PVV goes back to 24 seats (its current number), while the SP is on an upswing. Even in the conservative Barometer the SP has now as much seats as the PvdA.

Yesterday TNS-NIPO released its first poll, and it shows the SP as the second party after the VVD, before the PVV and way before the PvdA. In fact, the poor PvdA is only the third party on the left: D66 is bigger. See the polls page for details.

The problem with this poll is that I cannot find the actual report. Two newspapers ran a short piece on it, but it mentioned only the score of the six larger parties, and not of the five smaller ones. Since my poll script cannot deal with incomplete polls I made up the results of the five smaller ones. Very annoying, but unfortunately necessary.

Update: The latest Peil.nl poll confirms the trend: PVV loses three seats, SP and VVD both at 30 seats. See the polls page for details.

In any case, the movement away from the PVV and toward the SP is real. That doesn’t mean it will continue, but it does mean that right now people are starting to get enough of Wilders and his shouting.

Recently he even started shouting at the Queen, who, during a state visit to Oman, had the temerity to wear a headscarf during a visit to a mosque. Quite unusually, the Queen replied that all this is “such nonsense.” Usually the prime minister is supposed to defend her, but Rutte didn’t do anything until much later.

Also, a PVV member of the Limburg provincial States turns out to have written a very vulgar and racist mail to a PvdA member of Turkish descent. The PVV quite correctly kicked him out of the party, but more damage was done.

Anyway, do we see a slide back into obscurity for Wilders and his party because people are getting tired of him? It’s far too early to tell, and it certainly won’t be this easy, but the polls, at least, give some indication that it’s possible.

<— Even more CDA problems | TNS-NIPO poll update —>

This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.

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