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Three new polls

I haven’t reported on them yet, but all three pollsters have released a new poll which have been added to the polls page. In general. the recent trend from PVV to SP is confirmed, but has slowed down considerably.

The Barometer still has the VVD as the largest party, and sees both VVD and SP winning. Peil.nl sees a seat moving from VVD to SP, making the socialists only one seat larger than the liberals. TNS-NIPO has jumped on the bandwagon in a big way, with the SP winning 10 seats over the previous poll.

I must admit I don’t entirely trust TNS-NIPO’s wild swings, and I don’t understand their publication schedule. The poll was released on the 6th, but the press release went out only on the 10th.

I informally compared the reception of the three polls in the press, and it’s very clear that Peil.nl receives by far most attention, the Barometer some, and TNS-NIPO almost none. Their last poll wasn’t mentioned anywhere (at least, I didn’t see it).

TNS-NIPO would certainly be helped by a reliable publication schedule. Their results are every bit as wild as Peil.nl’s, but Peil is helped by the fact that everybody knows it’s released every Sunday.

Anyway, in my average the left-wing parties are at a historical high of 74 seats. The SP marginally outstrips the VVD 33 to 32; Wilders’s PVV is down to 20, PvdA and D66 are stabilising and the smaller parties (including the CDA) are not doing very well.

To be honest, I don’t think that will last. Something of a swing back to the right is to be expected, although I hope the parties of the left will retain at least some of the seats they recently conquered.

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