Final Politieke Barometer poll; end of polling

The Politieke Barometer has released its final poll which I’ve added to the polls page. With that polling is complete, and the polls page contains a final score.

So this is the final poll result (apologies for the bad formatting; I’m having technical problems):

Party Current Pol. Bar. TNS-NIPO Average
VVD 21 33 34 36 34
PvdA 33 30 30 29 30
CDA 41 24 24 21 23
PVV 9 17 18 18 18
SP 25 14 13 15 14
D66 3 10 11 11 11
GL 7 11 11 10 11
CU 6 6 6 6 6
SGP 2 3 2 2 2
PvdD 2 2 1 1 1
ToN 1 0 0 1 0

As I said before there seems to be a curious tendency of the final block scores to differ from the final result by three seats: the left loses three seats, of which the right wins two and the christians one.

A neck-and-neck race between VVD and PvdA is growing after all, although that’s caused by the VVD dropping, and not by the PvdA rising. Still, a prime-minister race might start to brew at the last possible moment, with left-wing voters seeing that their vote, if cast for the PvdA, might make the difference between a left-wing and a right-wing government. Right-wing voters might think the same, but they don’t have quite the incentive the left has, because the VVD seems to be the largest party.

If there’s a last-second horse race, the PvdA is likelier to profit from it than the VVD.

So let’s see what’s going to happen tomorrow. Yesterday and today there were two final debates between the eight major parties, but I haven’t watched them. From the few articles I read on the Dutch newspaper sites I didn’t get the feeling that any party leader caused a breakthrough. They repeated their old points and fought for the last floating voters in predictable patterns.

Anway, we’ll know tomorrow. The polling stations will close at nine, the exit poll (which is usually pretty decent) will be published about half an hour later, and the all-but-final score will be known around midnight. Traditionally this final score assigns one seat wrongly; a defect that will be corrected within a day or two.

Also we’ll know which pollster was best (or whether they were all totally wrong). It’s clear the VVD will do well compared to 2006, but there will likely be a secondary story that’s unknown right now, and that will be a complete surprise to everybody.

<— Final poll | Exit poll —>

This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.


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