Peil.nl released another poll together with the regular one. They asked about a possible fall of government, and what should happen next.
50% of the people expects government to fall in 2012. In itself this doesn’t say much: the politicians decide what’s going to happen, and not the people. The metric to watch here is the PVV voters: if they favour a fall of government Wilders might give it to them — at his own time and in his own way. Actually, 44% of Wilders voters expect government to reach the end of its natural tenure in 2015. So Wilders might not do anything after all.
Next: who’ll be responsible? PVV 49%, CDA 38%, VVD 8%. Wilders might do it if he expects electoral gain; the CDA is deeply divided and may get an insurgency from the left wing; the VVD is relatively most happy.
One more interesting factoid: of PvdA voters, 47% thinks the CDA will pull the plug vs. 42% for Wilders. This group is the only one to rate CDA higher than PVV here, and that might mirror its desire for a centre-left CDA they can form a coalition with rather than a centre-right one.
If government falls, what’s next?
(Incidentally, the coalition table on the polls page now also allows you to ponder the coalitions that are possible in current parliament.)
According to Dutch constitutional law new elections are the only solution. Switching government coalition in mid-term was tried last in 1965, and it caused a hell of a lot of trouble for everyone involved. Let’s not go there.
Fortunately the poll also asked this question, and about 60% feels that either a new gedoogsteun construction or PurplePlus would not be acceptable. So that’s pretty much that: if Wilders shuts down government (or if those pesky CDA left-wingers revolt) we’ll have new elections.
Sounds about right to me.
<— New poll | The Rutte government and gedoogsteun —>
This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.
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