Political Quirks monthlies
This is the monthly archive for January 2012.
Ipsos, which also polls for the Politieke Barometer, has released a paper on SP and PVV voters. The main conclusion is that no less than 7% of Dutch voters are willing to vote for both SP and PVV, while about a quarter of them is willing to vote SP but not PVV, and about the same amount PVV but not SP.
The University of Amsterdam and political TV programme Een Vandaag recently released interesting research on the preferences of Dutch voters, and their supposed volatility.
The new Politieke Barometer poll was just released, and it confirms the PVV-to-SP trend. SP +7, PVV -4. See the polls page for the updated averages and coalitions.
As I reported earlier the polls indicate that the SP is winning seats from the PVV. Geert Wilders is getting nervous and has opened the attack. Unfortunately for him, the SP is not the only danger.
The new Peil.nl poll has been released and I added it to the polls page. In addition, Peil.nl released some extra polling focused on the SP.
This weekend social-democratic PvdA is holding its party congress. With most eyes on the CDA’s problems, attention for the PvdA is less than it should be, also on this blog. The PvdA is suffering from most of the same problems as the CDA, and it’s doing even worse in the polls — relatively speaking.
Like the CDA, the PvdA is a former mass party that’s slowly bleeding to death because its voters don’t trust it any more or are looking elsewhere for some old-fashioned ideological standpoints. It didn’t lose as much as the CDA in the 2010 elections, but the current polls are dramatic: 19 seats, a loss of 11.
TNS-NIPO has published its poll, and it turned out it was misquoted by the newspapers: D66 had 17 seats, and not 19.
Furthermore it turns out that they also polled on 19th of December, from which I assume they, like the Politieke Barometer, are going to release a new poll every two weeks, but skipped one release due to Christmas and New Year.
The polls page has been updated with this information.
Lots of news on the polls front. The PVV drops rather sharply, the SP rises accordingly, and TNS-NIPO starts polling — more or less.
The CDA continues to be in deep crisis. Recommendations for a partial reversal of the party course have leaked out, and a whole slew of party prominents, including Verhagen, have said they’re not available as party leader. Finally, the Limburg chapter threatens rebellion.
See the December 2011 archive.
This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer,
in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve
foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.