Coalition overview

So the current preferences are:

• PVV: Right-wing (VVD+CDA+PVV)
• D66 and GL: Purple-green (VVD+PvdA+D66+GL)
• VVD: Not quite certain, but with the CDA in any case. PVV is not excluded.
• PvdA: “As progressive as possible,” which is really quite vague. Earlier I got the feeling that the centrist, Purple-minded wing of the party has started to come together again, but there’s also a left wing, and Cohen desperately wants to profile himself as a left-wing answer to the right.
• CDA: see above
• CU: preferably with the CDA, but that doesn’t seem to be an absolute demand any more. Besides, CU leader Rouvoet is going through a lot of trouble to position the CU left of the CDA right now.

So Wilders wants a right-wing coalition, and although the VVD keeps that option open, the CDA is less enamoured of this variant.

Instead, the CDA wants centre-right-green, which will definitely be on the VVD’s list, too. The liberals have to have a fallback option in the (likely) case negotiations with Wilders fail.

However, the two necessary parties, D66 and GL, feel more like Purple.

What the PvdA thinks is totally unclear, although Cohen’s “as progressive as possible” could mean Purple-green in the extremely likely case that the left doesn’t win an outright majority.

The VVD, however, keeps Purple clearly at a distance, quoting severe differences of opinion between it and the PvdA.

D66

Besides, I’m more and more wondering whether D66 wants to enter a centre-right coalition. For the Democrats the last coalition (Balkenende II, CDA+VVD+D66) was a disaster; mostly because they were hardly visible in all the right-wing talk this government exuded.

Also, suppose VVD and CDA form a government without D66. Inevitably, right-wing voters will become disappointed and start looking for another party to vote for. Wilders is of course available on the right, but for those voters who despise Wilders but still don’t want to vote for either VVD or CDA, D66 might become an interesting alternative.

So I don’t think D66 wants centre-right. GL will be no problem: the GreenLefts are pantingly eager to govern. Numerically, it seems likely that D66 can be swapped for the CU, and I think the christians will combine reasonably well with GL: both are witness parties at core.

VVD+CDA+GL+CU, with D66 waging spirited opposition against both the right-wing and the christian aspects of this government? Stranger things have happened. Besides, it would also allow the Democrats to suck GL dry.

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Coalition news, ctd.

CDA secretary of state Van Bijsterveldt (not to be confused with Bijleveld) said that she felt the PVV is too right-wing to really form a coalition with.

Instead, she said, she thought a VVD+CDA+D66+GL coalition looked much better, although she emphasised this was not a formal CDA coalition preference. Whatever; the CDA has always set store on being as vague as possible so that it could do whatever it pleased after the elections. (Right now that depends more on the VVD than on the CDA, and that will sting.)
(Source: NRC)

Coalition overview

So the current preferences are:

• PVV: Right-wing (VVD+CDA+PVV)
• D66 and GL: Purple-green (VVD+PvdA+D66+GL)
• VVD: Not quite certain, but with the CDA in any case. PVV is not excluded.
• PvdA: “As progressive as possible,” which is really quite vague. Earlier I got the feeling that the centrist, Purple-minded wing of the party has started to come together again, but there’s also a left wing, and Cohen desperately wants to profile himself as a left-wing answer to the right.
• CDA: see above
• CU: preferably with the CDA, but that doesn’t seem to be an absolute demand any more. Besides, CU leader Rouvoet is going through a lot of trouble to position the CU left of the CDA right now.

So Wilders wants a right-wing coalition, and although the VVD keeps that option open, the CDA is less enamoured of this variant.

Instead, the CDA wants centre-right-green, which will definitely be on the VVD’s list, too. The liberals have to have a fallback option in the (likely) case negotiations with Wilders fail.

However, the two necessary parties, D66 and GL, feel more like Purple.

What the PvdA thinks is totally unclear, although Cohen’s “as progressive as possible” could mean Purple-green in the extremely likely case that the left doesn’t win an outright majority.

The VVD, however, keeps Purple clearly at a distance, quoting severe differences of opinion between it and the PvdA.

D66

Besides, I’m more and more wondering whether D66 wants to enter a centre-right coalition. For the Democrats the last coalition (Balkenende II, CDA+VVD+D66) was a disaster; mostly because they were hardly visible in all the right-wing talk this government exuded.

Also, suppose VVD and CDA form a government without D66. Inevitably, right-wing voters will become disappointed and start looking for another party to vote for. Wilders is of course available on the right, but for those voters who despise Wilders but still don’t want to vote for either VVD or CDA, D66 might become an interesting alternative.

So I don’t think D66 wants centre-right. GL will be no problem: the GreenLefts are pantingly eager to govern. Numerically, it seems likely that D66 can be swapped for the CU, and I think the christians will combine reasonably well with GL: both are witness parties at core.

VVD+CDA+GL+CU, with D66 waging spirited opposition against both the right-wing and the christian aspects of this government? Stranger things have happened. Besides, it would also allow the Democrats to suck GL dry.

<— Small fry, 31 May | Small fry, 1 June —>

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