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Small fry; European edition

Since Dutch politics are boring and predictable right now, let’s also take a look at some other occurrences.

• Schippers offered her first report to parliament, and although the conclusion that VVD, CDA, D66, and GL should commence coalition talks is not by any means a surprise, there are some interesting tidbits hidden in the report.
  The SP, which previously excluded the VVD, now carefully suggests it might reconsider its stance if it’s really necessary after “other combinations” have been tried and found wanting. Also, SP leader Roemer was the first to mention new elections in case the negotiations fail.
  GL explicitly mentions that a minority government (say, VVD+CDA+D66) is an option. Such a government would have to find support with one or more parties in parliament, as the situation warrants. GL, CU, and PvdA all have the seats and (probably) the desire to support such a government here and there. Maybe even Wilders will.
  Let’s be clear: the other parties (except for, it appears, the SP) do not mention a minority government, so it is definitely a reserve option, to be brought forth only after negotiations fail.
  Finally, Wilders said he does not exclude any party from a possible coalition, not even D66, although a combination PVV+DENK would be “illogical.” Too bad, so sad, Wilders has already fallen out of the formation train, and nobody particularly cares what he says. Everybody will happily ignore his 1.3 million voters, as they will ignore the approximately 3.15 million voters of the other parties that were not invited to the coalition negotiations.
  (Source; source 2)
• Today saw the first coalition talks, and they were about the structure of the coalition talks. The eight negotiatiors (four party leaders, each with a second negotiator) plus Schippers talked for about an hour, and then complained about how difficult it is going to be. Translation: we're in no hurry. Let’s take it easy.
  (Source)
• There’s even time for some political humour. Informer Schippers (VVD) told the press she can imagine the four parties want a new government “before summer.” Hahaha! Funny!
  Anyway, this might be the VVD putting pressure on the other parties; in particular GL. The fact that they start now might mean they’re not so sure the negotiations will go in the VVD-desired direction. On the other hand, they might calculate Klaver might break under extra tension. Hard to say right now. But it’s definitely a VVD snipe at GL.
  (Source)
• As expected, Khadija Arib (PvdA) remains speaker of parliament. No other candidates applied, though Bosma (PVV) was rumoured to consider a bid. Incidentally, Bosma has occasionally chaired parliament in the past, and is generally considered to have done a good job.
  (Source)
• Thierry Baudet of FvD was one of the new party leaders to hold his maiden speech, and he did so in Latin. In pretty badly accented Latin, I should add, with a few very ugly neologisms, and starting with Cicero’s “Quo usque tandem” after which he went off the rails quickly.
  (The point here is that we ancient historians know Cicero was a vain puffed shirt, even though he wrote well. That Baudet tries to imitate him says enough. Back in the early nineties then-VVD leader Bolkestein also referred in parliament to Cicero and his arch-enemy Milo the vulgar streetfighter. I had similar reservations about his love for of the famous Roman orator back then.)
  Anyway, within two sentences he was corrected by chair Arib, who stated that in Dutch parliament we speak Dutch. And that was that.
  Nobody but Baudet has the slightest idea what this was supposed to mean, but the real point here is that he’s trying to woo Wilders voters, and will continue to do so through the (potentially brief) life of this parliament. Let’s see how Wilders reacts to the challenge. He won’t do it in Latin, though.
  I wish one of the other members had enough ready Latin to reply in kind, but that’s too much to ask for.

Now for non-Dutch snippets.

• Bulgaria had elections on Monday, and they results in a victory for the pro-EU centre-right party. The pro-Russian socialists became the second party. The winner is now facing difficult coalition negotiations with some ultra-nationalist parties who used the elections for some anti-Turkish grandstanding. (Bulgaria has a Turkish minority which has its own party.)
  Now I know nothing about Bulgarian politics, and I’m just copying what the articles I read said, but the interesting point here is that the result is presented as, once more, a victory for pro-EU forces. Europeans increasingly vote against those parties who want to emulate Trump, Putin, May, or other populist leaders. Spin is everything, and it seems the pro-European parties in the entire EU are having more success with spinning than the populists. Let’s see if that continues.
  (Source; source 2)
• The local elections in German Saarland have come and gone, and Merkel’s CDU won by a surprising amount. Although local issues played an important role (the Saarland CDU prime minister is very popular), it’s still good news for Merkel. Even better: populist AfD remained at a disappointing 6% of the votes. If that’s all we won’t have much to fear from the German elections in September.
• More in general AfD continues to drop in the polls. It’s at 7% now. So much for the patrotic spring.
  (Source)
• Brexit officially starts today. Let’s see how quickly it will become apparent that the British negotiators have no effing clue what they’re doing. It will likely be clear by the time of the German elections (September), but will it be clear before the French presidential ones in about two weeks? It would be useful if that happened.
  Also, here is a list of what the 27 EU countries want from the Brexit negotiations.
• Speaking of the French presidential elections, the polls still point to populist Le Pen and partyless centrist Macron both finishing with roughly 25%. They will make it to the second round, where Macron will most likely win. Today, socialist former prime minister Valls also defected from his own party’s (very left-wing) candidate to Macron, while centre-right candidate Fillon’s wife was formally accused of corruption. Fillon already fell in the polls in recent months, and it is unclear if he’ll fall even more. Even if he does, though, Macron will not make 50%+1 in the first round, so a second round will remain necessary.
  Here’s a poll overview.

<— Article: The Times of Trouble | Small fry 9/4 —>

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