Q1 and 2 2012 browser stats for 12 countries 2/2

After part 1, here is part 2 of the quarterly mobile (and sometimes desktop) browser stats for the twelve countries I’ve been following since Q4 2010. As always, the stats are according to StatCounter.

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The Netherlands

The Dutch mobile browser market is becoming more of a pure Safari/Android race, with Safari still slightly in the lead, but the difference becoming less and less meaningful. Also, IE appears on the radar.

The Dutch market as a whole is still growing tremendously, from 4% in December to 6% now. It clearly hasn’t reached its plateau yet.

Q2 2012 mobile browser stats for the Netherlands
Browser Q2 2012 ch Q1 2012 ch Q4 2011
Safari 46% -1 47% +1 46%
Android 44% +2 42% +1 41%
BlackBerry 4% 0 4% -1 5%
Opera 2% 0 2% -1 3%
Nokia 2% 0 2% -1 3%
IE 1% 0 1% +1 0
Other 1% -1 2% 0 2%
Volatility 2% 3%
Mobile 6% +1 5% +1 4%

Mexico

The Mexican market seems to have reached a plateau of 5%. Back last year there was a temporary phase of tremendous growth because a hack was discovered that allowed Opera Mini users to get free mobile internet on the T3LC3L network. As a result, Opera use and mobile use in general went through the roof. Predictably, the operator was less than amused and closed the gap in May.

Since then Opera dropped to tbe benefit of Safari and Android, but that’s changed in Q2: Opera is on the rise again, although it mainly takes away market share from Nokia and BlackBerry.

The Mexican mobile market is now a three-way race between Safari, Android, and Opera, just as the global market is. Also, IE appears on the radar.

Q2 2012 mobile browser stats for Mexico
Browser Q2 2012 ch Q1 2012 ch Q4 2011
Safari 26% -1 27% +3 24%
Android 26% +2 24% +5 19%
Opera 25% +5 20% -2 22%
Nokia 12% -3 15% -3 18%
BlackBerry 5% -2 7% -1 8%
Sony PSP 1% 0 1% 0 1%
IE 1% +1 0 0 0
Obigo 1% -1 2% 0 2%
NetFront 1% 0 1% -1 2%
Sony Ericsson 1% 0 1% 0 1%
Other 1% -1 2% -1 3%
Volatility 8% 8%
Mobile 5% 0 5% 0 5%

China

In China the battle of the proxy browsers shows a clear advantage to native son UC, while Android and Safari are on the rise in the non-proxy market. The big loser is Nokia, but unfortunately we don’t know if that means Nokia WebKit for Symbian, or the Nokia browsers for S40. In any case China is increasingly switching to smartphones, even if that only means cheap Androids.

Q2 2012 mobile browser stats for China
Browser Q2 2012 ch Q1 2012 ch Q4 2011 Remarks
UC 55% +3 52% -5 57% Proxy browser
Android 20% +4 16% +2 14%
Safari 16% +2 14% +2 12%
Nokia 4% -10 14% +2 12%
Opera 2% 0 2% 0 2%
Samsung 0 -1 1% 0 1%
Other 3% +2 1% -1 2%
Volatility 11% 6%
Mobile 4% 0 4% 0 4% Mobile browsing as percentage of all browsing

Egypt

Nokia is also the big loser in Egypt, and here, too, we don’t know which OS is losing. In any case Android and Opera are the winners. That doesn’t particularly point to an increase in the number of smartphones, so I assume it’s the proxy browser Ovi that loses on the Nokia side, while Opera Mini gains on the Opera side.

Q2 2012 mobile browser stats for Egypt
Browser Q2 2012 ch Q1 2012 ch Q4 2011 Remarks
Opera 41% +2 39% -6 45%
Nokia 36% -8 44% +5 39%
Android 7% +3 4% +1 3%
Safari 5% 0 5% 0 5%
UC 2% +1 1% 0 1%
BlackBerry 2% +1 1% -1 2%
Dolfin 1% 0 1% 0 1%
NetFront 1% 0 1% 0 1%
Jasmine 1% 0 1% 0 1%
Other 4% +1 3% +1 2%
Volatility 8% 7%
Mobile 4% 0 4% 0 4% Mobile browsing as percentage of all browsing

Brazil

Brazil remains a confusing mobile market, although it could be the confusion is diminishing slightly. Here, too, Opera wins to Nokia’s detriment, while Android and Safari are on the rise, pushing other browsers such as Obigo and NetFront out of the market. Let’s wait another quarter before deciding that Brazil’s confusion is lessening, but it could be that that’s what’s going to happen.

Q2 2012 mobile browser stats for Brazil
Browser Q2 2012 ch Q1 2012 ch Q4 2011 Remarks
Opera 36% +8 28% +6 22%
Android 23% +3 20% +6 14%
Nokia 18% -7 25% -5 30%
Safari 9% +2 7% +1 6%
Obigo 4% -3 7% -3 10%
NetFront 3% -2 5% -1 6%
Jasmine 2% -1 3% -1 4%
Dolfin 1% -1 2% +1 1%
UC 1% +1 0 0 0
Samsung 1% 0 1% -1 2%
BlackBerry 1% 0 1% 0 1%
IE 1% +1 0 0 0
Sony Ericsson 0 -1 1% 0 1%
Other 0 0 0 -3 3%
Volatility 15% 14%
Mobile 3% -1 4% 0 4% Mobile browsing as percentage of all browsing

Poland

In contrast, very little happens in Poland. Android saw lots of growth in Q1, but not so much in Q2, with again Nokia losing.

Q2 2012 mobile browser stats for Poland
Browser Q2 2012 ch Q1 2012 ch Q4 2011 Remarks
Opera 54% 0 54% +1 53%
Android 27% +1 26% +5 21%
Safari 6% 0 6% 0 6%
Nokia 5% -2 7% -2 9%
Dolfin 4% +1 3% -1 4%
NetFront 1% -1 2% -1 3%
IE 1% +1 0 0 0
Other 2% 0 2% -2 4%
Volatility 3% 6%
Mobile 3% 0 3% +1 2% Mobile browsing as percentage of all browsing

The plateau

The anemic growth of the mobile browser market as a whole during the last quarter made me wonder if we’ve reached some kind of plateau.

Eventually, of course, mobile browsing is going to hit its maximum. It’s clear that desktop is becoming less important, but it’s also clear that it’s not going to disappear. Especially for professionals such as ourselves, desktop and laptop computers will remain the tools of choice, which means they’ll also continue to be used for browsing.

What nobody knows is exactly when mobile will stop growing. Judging by Q2 only that moment seems to have come now, but my instinct screams it’s far too early. Still, last quarter saw the least positive and the most negative growth since I started keeping track of these numbers, and the difference with the second-worst quarter, Q1 of last year, isn’t especially small.

In any case, I assume that mobile growth will recommence in Q3, though maybe at less of a clip than previously. We’ll have to see how these numbers evolve.

Below you find an overview of the growth rates of the twelve mobile markets. We see that several individual countries reached a plateau earlier, such as Indonesia in Q1-3 2011 and the UK from Q2-Q4 2011, but all continued growing afterwards. That’s why I assume this stalling is something temporary.

We’ll see next quarter.

Mobile shares of total browsing market
Country Q2 2012 ch Q1 2012 ch Q4 2011 ch Q3 2011 ch Q2 2011 ch Q1 2011 ch Q4 2010
Nigeria 58% -2 60% +6 54% +8 46% +7 39% +8 31% +4 27%
India 47% +7 40% +2 38% +5 33% +6 27% +7 20% +4 16%
Indonesia 20% 0 20% +4 16% +5 11% -1 12% +1 11% -2 13%
US 9% 0 9% +1 8% 0 8% 0 8% +2 6% 0 6%
UK 11% +1 10% +2 8% 0 8% +1 7% +1 6% +1 5%
South Korea 21% -2 23% +3 20% +4 16% +6 10% +5 5% +1 4%
China 4% 0 4% 0 4% 0 4% +1 3% +1 2% 0 2%
Egypt 4% 0 4% 0 4% +2 2% 0 2% 0 2% 0 2%
Brazil 3% -1 4% 0 4% 0 4% +1 3% +1 2% 0 2%
Mexico 5% 0 5% 0 5% -1 6% 0 6% +3 3% +1 2%
Netherlands 6% +1 5% +1 4% 0 4% +1 3% +1 2% 0 2%
Poland 3% 0 3% +1 2% +1 1% 0 1% 0 1% 0 1%
Positive 9 20 25 23 30 11
Negative -5 0 -1 -1 0 -2

This is the blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer. You can also follow him on Twitter.
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