There appears to be a poll aimed specifically at non-white Dutch, and the results are interesting, though I’m hampered by the lack of direct access to the actual poll report.
Very roughly speaking, Turkish, Moroccan, and Surinamese Dutch number 300,000 each — though not all are Dutch citizens, and turnout among them is lower than among whites. Still, some seats are up for grabs here — shall we say about 7-8?
Unfortunately the pollster, Etnobarometer, has an incredibly shitty site. I managed to find a button that I think will show the poll results, except that it doesn’t work. (I’m a wizard-level web developer; even I failed.) So I have to rely on NRC’s report of the poll report.
As quoted by NRC, the poll shows that 40% of Turkish Dutch, and 34% of Moroccan Dutch, plan to vote DENK, the PvdA split-off that all mainline polls agree will enter parliament after the elections. This is a problem especially for the PvdA, which so far received these votes. In 2012, 43% of “New Dutch” — the current term for non-whites — still voted PvdA, though it should be noted that this counts Surinamese, who are less likely to support DENK. (In fact, 14% of Surinamese are reported to consider voting for Wilders.)
Also, GL leader Jesse Klaver (half-Moroccan himself) is considered the most appealing party leader among non-whites. D66 leader Pechtold comes second, DENK leader Kuzu third. Not much PvdA there — and it’s slightly odd that Kuzu doesn’t rank higher if his party is so popular. On the other hand, this sample, too, includes Surinamese.
DENK appears to fill a need, and I think that’s a good thing. Now let’s hope it won’t fall apart immediately from a surfeit of ego and corruption. (One of DENK’s two founders is rumoured to be implicated in one of those interminable affairs in the southern province of Limburg.)
It is important to recognise that the Dutch political system was designed with exactly this situation in mind. A group feels marginalised in Dutch society and is offered the tools to take political action — profiting not only from extremely easy access to parliament (66,000 votes is enough for a seat, no matter what), but also from the general feeling that this is a proper course of action. Other parties (minus Wilders) will gradually allow the political elite of the group access to their councils of power, and this will blunt their marginalisation. Hey, it worked for the Catholics! (OK, it took a century.)
Also, as far as I know this is the first European political party based on non-white ethnicity. The next few years will show whether this is an example to be emulated elsewhere, or a failure.
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This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.
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