Four seats change hands since last time, and the Right coalition that’s currently in power conquers back an absolute majority of 76 seats. D66 is again confirmed to be one seat larger than the CDA. 50Plus, the elderly party I still owe you an update about, disappears, though the pollster is careful to note it just barely didn’t make the threshold, so it might be back in two weeks.
]]>We’ve run into a serious translation problem. I have found no directly equivalent English term for gedoogsteun. Still, some help from my Twitter followers unearthed the fact that both Canada and New Zealand have had a similar construct, but no specific name for it. Denmark, too, has made extensive use of gedoogsteun, but I don’t speak Danish and I doubt they translated their name for it into English.
]]> Confidence and supply comes close, but it’s not quite on the mark. The New Zealand example states this as first and most important point:Good faith and no surprises
All parties to this agreement will operate on a good faith and no surprises basis for the term of this Parliament.
The crucial fact of Wilders’s gedoogsteun is that he does not always operate in good faith and surprises form the basis of his parliamentary actions. Thus confidence and supply is not the term we want.
I’m not going to translate gedoogsteun for the moment. So the two or so visitors from outside the Netherlands should get used to it. (Distinguished English-speaking visitors are discouraged from trying to pronounce it, by the way.)
Anyway. The facts. The Rutte government consists of VVD and CDA. That is, these two parties sent their best and brightest into government, and the parliamentary fractions have promised to abide by the coalition agreement. Together, VVD and CDA hold 52 of the 150 seats.
This is the first time since 1977 we’ve had a government that does not have an outright majority in parliament. Still, VVD and CDA negotiated gedoogsteun with Wilder’s PVV, which has 24 seats in parliament and brings government to a majority of 76 of 150 seats.
That’s rather a minimal majority. Any single defector would endanger government. So far that hasn’t happened yet (or other parties supported government), but there are dangers galore:
Plenty of dangers. Let’s see how well Rutte steers past them. So far he hasn’t done badly.
During the coalition negotiations it was clear Wilders would support most, but not all policies of VVD and CDA. The best example is the new Afghanistan mission.
The Balkenende IV government fell over an extension of Dutch military presence in that country, and politically it was a hot potato. Government wanted to take on a new “police training” mission, but Wilders refused to support it.
That left Rutte no choice but to shop around for other supporters. The PvdA was out of the question: it couldn’t flip-flop on the very issue that made it withdraw its support from Balkenende IV. Rutte had to create an alliance of convenience with several smaller parties.
In the end GL, D66, CU, and SGP helped the plan to a majority — and the process was rather visible and transparent for all. This has hurt GL: the party has historically had a strong pacifist tendency that is not easily squared with what’s essentially a colonial war. GL’s Kunduz vote is the cause of its slide in the polls. In fact, it’s the only party apart from CDA and PvdA that stands to lose seats right now, and the cause is clear and instructive.
Something similar happened to the pension age, earlier. Wilders refused to support its increase from 65 to 67, which forced Rutte to shop elsewhere for support, eventually ending up with the PvdA. That didn’t help the social-democrats’ standing with their traditional left-wing electorate.
Of course PvdA and GL knew they were courting trouble when they helped government to a majority. Still, their wish to retain their voters is balanced by the wish to seem coalition-worthy, especially when it comes to VVD and CDA. A left-wing coalition just isn’t in the books: it won’t get a majority, and even if it does the four left-wing parties won’t be able to form a government. That means they need either CDA or VVD. And that means supporting them every now and then.
Wilders understands this calculation very well, and it gives him another reason not to support government in these matters: apart from stressing his importance and giving his voters what they want, he damages a left-wing party in the process.
So far D66 seems immune to Wilders’s game, but that’s partly because the right topic to hurt the Democrats hasn’t come up yet. As to the SP, it supports most of Wilders’s populist ideas, so it’s less vulnerable to this particular trap.
Still, the Rutte government is experiencing stress. Tensions are mainly between PVV and CDA, and both PVV and VVD have played the game quite cleverly. The CDA has had ... issues, and is not in the best of health.
It took me a while to figure out how very clever Rutte has been to make a CDA man, former Maastricht mayor Leers, yet another Limburger, minister of Immigration and Integration. Minister of Wilders, in other words. If Wilders has any remarks to make on the insufficient measures government is taking to stop the tsunami of Islamic creepy migrants he addresses them to Leers.
Leers is in a tough spot. If he ignores Wilders he’s risking the coalition, but if he obeys he estranges the CDA’s left wing. Meanwhile the VVD stays out of the entire argument and looks mature and deliberate compared to its coalition partners.
Also, the vice-presidency of the Council of State will shortly become vacant. (Complicated; will explain later. But it’s a lifelong plum job in Dutch politics.) The only candidate for the seat so far is interior minister Donner (CDA), but his candidacy has drawn criticism, and the fact that it’s the interior minister who arranges the selection of a new vice-president made some fear for undue influence. Rutte moved the selection to justice minister Opstelten (VVD) to remove all shadows of doubt from the process. Still, one more affair that makes the CDA look bad.
More recently the VVD came under fire, too. Foreign minister Rosenthal was accused of being undiplomatic and only interested in sales of Dutch products as well as Israel. A recent poll showed VVD voters are getting a bit worried about the influence of Wilders and the SGP on policies. Still, for now Rutte performs splendidly according to his voters.
But Wilders, the dissidents, the SGP, and the serious trouble the CDA is in, they all form dangers to governmental stability.
Recently some political commentators declared the Rutte government dead. It would be good if government fell, but I’m not totally certain that it will — and even if it does it’ll take a few more months.
Will definitely be continued.
]]>Next: who’ll be responsible? PVV 49%, CDA 38%, VVD 8%. Wilders might do it if he expects electoral gain; the CDA is deeply divided and may get an insurgency from the left wing; the VVD is relatively most happy.
One more interesting factoid: of PvdA voters, 47% thinks the CDA will pull the plug vs. 42% for Wilders. This group is the only one to rate CDA higher than PVV here, and that might mirror its desire for a centre-left CDA they can form a coalition with rather than a centre-right one.
If government falls, what’s next?
(Incidentally, the coalition table on the polls page now also allows you to ponder the coalitions that are possible in current parliament.)
According to Dutch constitutional law new elections are the only solution. Switching government coalition in mid-term was tried last in 1965, and it caused a hell of a lot of trouble for everyone involved. Let’s not go there.
Fortunately the poll also asked this question, and about 60% feels that either a new gedoogsteun construction or PurplePlus would not be acceptable. So that’s pretty much that: if Wilders shuts down government (or if those pesky CDA left-wingers revolt) we’ll have new elections.
Sounds about right to me.
]]>Still, take a look at the polls page. It has changed considerably, especially the coalition table. I now generate coalitions automatically since the curated list of the previous version got too big and unwieldy. I hope I found the right rules to keep the number of coalitions in check, and I’ll probably tweak them a little in future weeks.
]]> Rumours of the Rutte government’s impending fall are on the rise again: in two newspapers the leading political analyst explained why government would not survive another year.The basic message is that Wilders is too annoying with his solo-actions, while CDA is still in disarray, and for the first time problems reach Rutte’s own VVD instead of being basically a PVV vs. CDA fight. Add to that the mounting international tension over the euro, and changes of government here and there (now even Belgium is forced to create a government!), and we get a confusing situation in which anything is possible, including the fall of government.
]]>(Unfortunately NRC has decided that a digital archive of news stories is not necessary, even though this particular story did appear online. Therefore I can’t link to it.)
So what exactly are the problems the CDA is facing? First of all it sank like a stone in the polls. Both pollsters now agree that it’s the sixth party in the country, after VVD, PVV, SP, PvdA, and D66, with 11 or 13 seats. That’s not good for the “natural” party of government.
]]>Second, a year and a half after the disastrous 2010 elections (41 to 21 seats) it still doesn’t have a party leader. Former prime minister Balkenende resigned after the elections, and although Verhagen took the lead in the coalition negotiations that led to the Rutte government, he was never officially instated as party leader.
Even back in 2009 it was clear that Verhagen was the second man in the CDA after prime minister Balkenende, and his succession to the party leadership was widely expected. He was, however, tarred quite efficiently by then-PvdA leader Bos during the fall of Balkenende’s government, and his reputation has not recovered. On the other hand, he’s (apparently) too powerful to be swept aside entirely.
Who are his competitors for the party leadership?
Occasionally the media mention a dark-horse candidate, and I’ll continue to monitor that, but right now I’d say the future CDA leader is Verhagen, Van Haersma Buma, De Jager, or Eurlings.
Verhagen and Eurlings are catholic; De Jager and Van Haersma Buma protestant. Last year it was clear that protestant Balkenende would have to be succeeded by a catholic, but that’s getting less clear now. One might argue the catholics have had their chance and lost it.
Still, Verhagen and Eurlings both come from the southern province of Limburg, just as Geert Wilders. Even more to the point: the CDA lost heavily to Wilders’s PVV in Limburg, to the extent that the PVV became the largest party. From the perspective of winning back southern conservative voters, electing a catholic Limburger as party leader makes a lot of sense.
So nothing’s decided yet, the CDA is falling and falling in the polls, and something ought to be done. Still, there’s no urgent reason to do anything now. The Rutte government still holds on, and elections are expected to take place only in 2015. Then why not wait a little while longer?
Verhagen’s refusal to appear in internal party meetings is a bad sign for him: apparently he doesn’t feel he has much in common with the party leadership, and they will meanwhile have gotten very tired of Verhagen’s absence.
To be continued.
]]>This was caused by the Mauro affair, where an 18-year old boy originally from Angola but living with his foster parents in Holland for the past ten years or so, was denied a permit of residence and may have to leave the country.
70% of Dutch are in favour of granting him a residence permit, but immigration minister Leers (CDA) took the opportunity of showing how hard-line he is, especially for Wilders, whose support is still crucial for the continued existence of government.
Anyway, it seems that people have woken up to the xenophoby of the VVD + PVV + CDA troika (of which only VVD and CDA actually sit in government; Wilders is not part of it!). It could be that they go to sleep right away again, when the Mauro affair sinks back into the collective unconscious. Still, this is better polling news than any in the past year.
]]>Since I trust the Barometer somewhat more I give its predictions somewhat more weight than Peil.nl's.
Anyway, follow the polls at the polls page.
]]>Wilders refused. He retained his standpoint that he wanted the CDA to be involved in the negotiations immediately, something that CDA leader Verhagen still refuses to do.
Although this is a repeat performance of what happened during the first days of the formation, I cannot escape the feeling that Rutte has effectively put Wilders in a nasty spot. We’re weeks further now, some people are starting to get impatient, and still Wilders refuses the only coalition offer he’s likely to get. Sure, Verhagen doesn’t budge either, but Rutte asked Wilders, and not Verhagen.
So maybe, just maybe, this episode has given enough ammunition to the VVD (and possibly the CDA) to accuse Wilders of unwillingness to enter coalition negotiations. We’ll see. The accusation will certainly not be aired before there’s a new government, but what happens later is anyone’s guess.
In any case, today Rutte said that the only reason he might reject Purple-plus is when the other parties refuse to even discuss the VVD’s conditions. Cohen (PvdA), Pechtold (D66), and Halsema (GL) fell over each other in their hurry to assure Rutte that they had no “taboos” and were open to discussing absolutely anything.
(Source: Volkskrant)
So that’s it, I guess. Purple-plus it will be. The CDA has been silently removed from the process, and that’s an excellent notion. It was Verhagen, after all, who allowed Wilders to win the first round of information by refusing to negotiate, leaving Wilders to smell like roses and count his blessings. Rutte’s new invitation may harm Wilders, but it’s too soon to tell.
Not that we’ll have a new government next week. Serious, complicated negotiations will start, and Rutte is in a similar position to VVD leader Bolkestein back in 1994. Rutte will have to reassure his voters that he won’t squander VVD talking points to the three left-wing parties he’s going to talk to, which will probably mean that the eventual goverment programme will be heavily VVD-influenced.
Rutte is in the weakest position here: if things go wrong both CDA and PVV will suck votes from him like mad. Conversely, the three left-wing parties are relatively safe. Disappointed left-wing voters will only have the SP to go to, and to some of them that’s not an option.
Thus, since Rutte’s position is weaker than that of the other Purple-plus leaders, his demands will be the strongest. The other parties will understand that Rutte has to placate his voters, and will grant him quite a few of his wishes. The same happened in 1994 during the original Purple negotiations.
But now that he’s honestly tried to form a right-wing coalition not once but twice, only to be rejected by PVV and CDA, he can claim that his responsibility for the national good leaves him no choice but to open Purple-plus negotiations. This is the real reason the initial phase of the formation has taken so long.
Despite all this good news, the Purple-plus coalition will make sure that the fundamental VVD and PvdA problems will continue to exist. The PvdA will again be forced rightward economically; the VVD leftward with respect to immigration. Thus the long-term prospects of both SP and PVV continue to look rosy.
Incidentally, a few days ago PvdA leader Cohen rejected SP leader Roemer’s demand to also be included in the negotiations. Cohen cited the SP’s loss in the elections, and pointed out that a PvdA+CDA+SP+GL coalition would contain three losers and only one winner (GL), apart from having only 76 seats.
(Source: Volkskrant)
I’m not sure this was a wise decision. On the other side of the political spectrum Rutte has treated Wilders far more circumspectly, and has made Wilders at least partly responsible for his failure to enter government. Cohen might have been better off if he’d done something similar to the SP — maybe leaving the rejection of the proposed coalition to CDA leader Verhagen or something.
Anyway, Purple-plus it will be. The negotiations will be long and arduous, and there will be little news, except for the announcements that the negotiations are entering the serious “engagement” phase, and that a new coalition has been formed.
]]>I already said that the right-wing VVD+PVV+CDA coalitions has been rejected by the CDA, afraid as it is to offend its left wing and large parts of the centre, who do not want a coalition that includes the PVV.
When right failed, informer Rosenthal gauged support for VVD+PvdA+D66+GL Purple-Plus (the new name for Purple-green), but the VVD rejected it. Then came the forbidden VVD+PvdA+CDA coalition, which the PvdA rejected. Then he extended a general invitation to VVD, PvdA, CDA, D66, and GL, but the last two parties rejected such a coalition from the broad centre.
Back to square one? Formally, yes. Still, the reason for VVD and PvdA to reject coalitions was not so much that they really don’t want them, but rather to show their voters that they care about them. But when their backs are to the wall, and they must form a coalition, they’ll likely be much more amenable to discussion.
However, every party is waiting for another party to force the issue and push them to the wall, and no party has as yet shown any inclination of pushing another party. Impasse.
Yesterday Rosenthal (VVD) reported the latest impossibilities to the Queen, and advised her to appointed a second informer, this one from the PvdA. The Queen, however, rejected his advise and appointed Tjeenk Willink (PvdA) sole informer.
Such solo actions of the Queen are unusual, but not unheard-of. She did something similar in 1994, when the first round of Purple negotiations had failed, and CDA, VVD, and D66 had all rejected a coalition. Back then only the PvdA hadn’t, and the Queen rewarded the social-democrats with the informership, which eventually led to Purple I.
The situation is different now. The PvdA has rejected a coalition, but that was the forbidden one that just does not fit into the Dutch party system. This is the only rejection I completely agree with, and apparently the Queen feels the same.
Besides, she’s sending a clear message. The VVD, as the largest party, could take the initiative just after the elections, but it has squandered that right, which has now devolved on second-largest PvdA. I interpret her action as a snub to the VVD.
We might get a discussion on whether the Queen has overstepped her de-facto authority by ignoring Rosenthal’s advice. Constitutional scholars live for these moments, and the Queen is not a democratically elected official.
Still, I feel that a democratically elected official would have done pretty much the same. The VVD has not exactly gone out of its way to create a sensible coalition, and switching to the PvdA makes a certain amount of sense.
Tjeenk Willink emphasised he was going to be strict in his informing: no protracted negotiations, but a quick round of talks in order to find out which parties are willing to talk to which parties. Basically he wants to force the parties themselves to take a next step.
It might also be useful to discuss actual issues with the parties; until now it was only a game of who wants whom, without any reference to factual differences of opinions.
Anyway, it seems the first two options to be studied are the broad centre coalition (VVD+PvdA+CDA, possibly reinforced by GL and D66), and Purple-Plus. In other words: all variants that have the PvdA in them. That’s not absurd for a PvdA informer.
In any case Wilders’s PVV is out of the picture. As regular readers will know I consider that a problem, and not a solution. Wilders should have been forced to either reject government or taint his ideological purity in government. But that option seems to have been killed effectively by the CDA.
All the more reason not to reward the christian-democrats with governmental involvement and to go for Purple-Plus.
]]>Instead, Verhagen hoped to keep the CDA left and right together by doing nothing except making curious demands. It’s clear that the blame for the failed negotiations must lie with the CDA.
It’s also clear that a perfect chance to stop Wilders has been wasted by the christian-democrats. We’ll never know now, but my gut feeling remains that Wilders secretly didn’t want to enter the coalition, preferring the opposition. He’s got what he wanted now, and he’s also able to blame somebody else.
Dammit. CDA must die.
Anyway, tomorrow Rosenthal will probably announce what he’s going to do next. Let’s all agree to act surprised when the next step turns out to be Purple-green.
]]>The most obviously interesting point is that the PVV became by far the largest party in Limburg. Also, the VVD has become the largest party in Gelderland and Noord-Brabant for the first time, while the CDA became largest only in Overijssel.
]]> Anyway, here are two graphs to help you study the results.NRC publishes yet another genuinely useful map that compares the provinces in terms of their size.
(I know I’m behind on the formation news, but basically the CDA is still stalling. Maybe I’ll have time for a proper article later this week. For now I’m busy busy.)
]]>Besides, according to the other parties both PVV and CDA could be instable, and that would be a serious problem with a 76-seat majority. Every vote counts, literally. The fact that the SGP has offered to support the government helps a little — two votes’ worth, to be exact.
I do not believe in this purported instability. Both PVV and CDA are far more stable than is suggested.
On the PVV side, the single thing that happened was Hero Brinkman’s call for more internal democracy, and the general possibility that there will be undisciplined people among the 15 new PVV MPs. That’s possible, I suppose, but it ignores the fact that Wilders has been very strict on party discipline, and that the Brinkman incident is the single example of dissent in the PVV ranks in the past three years. Wilders started picking new candidates a year ago, and I’m morally certain that he’s made sure the newcomers all accept his leadership. Besides, without Wilders at the top of the party list none of those newcomers would have been elected.
On the CDA side, the large number of party prominents that reject a coalition with the PVV is quoted as evidence for instability. While it’s certainly true that part of the CDA doesn’t like the PVV for beans and would prefer a different coalition, when it comes to staying in power the CDA has always been extremely disciplined. Besides, none of the critics actually sit in parliament. And if the party leadership decides that a PVV coalition is good for the country (and the party), everybody will comply and toe the party line.
Still, claiming instability in another party allows one to shift the blame for failed negotiations to that party. The PVV will certainly want to blame the CDA, while the VVD will certainly want to blame any or both of the other two. So the three parties have a definite incentive to accuse the others of instability. In that light it’s curious that nobody has called the VVD instable yet.
In any case, today Rutte and Wilders, chaired by informer Rosenthal (VVD), are supposed to talk coalition. Wilders, however, wants Verhagen to also sit in on that conversation, because a coalition without the CDA is impossible. Wilders also offered to talk directly to Verhagen, without either Rosenthal or Rutte. Yesterday, however, Verhagen said that PVV and VVD should talk to each other first and bridge the gap between their party programmes.
(Source: Volkskrant | Telegraaf)
Verhagen clearly tries to wriggle out from having to state anything. It would be far better for him if PVV and VVD decide they have too little common ground to form a coalition. On the other hand, it would be far better for Wilders if he can blame the CDA for not wanting to talk to potential coalition partners — the most serious sin in the Dutch political system.
What the VVD wants is not entirely clear. But Rutte is once again saved by circumstances: if PVV and CDA fight against each other, the VVD can stand in the middle looking disappointed at the impossibility to rule with coalition partners like these — and switch to Purple-green.
Still, the point of this round of negotiations is to prove that Wilders doesn’t want to sit in government. Both VVD and CDA stand to win from proving that, so I hope they’re cooperating behind the scenes. It would be very bad for the CDA if it takes the blame for the failed negotiations: a voter conduit between PVV and CDA has opened during the elections, and they now compete for the conservative-nationalist voters. The very fact they’re competing shows that these voters distrust the CDA, and taking the blame for the failure would only increase that distrust.
But right now Wilders has the advantage. In the popular eye it’s the CDA that’s demurring and endangering a right-wing coalition, while Wilders is playing the moderate who wants to talk to everyone. That’s not the way to prove Wilders is unfit for government.
If the negotiations continue on this track, the CDA might lose them as badly as they lost the elections.
Still, that assumes the CDA is stupid, and it’s not. Therefore I believe that later this week the CDA will join the negotiations after all, hoping to shift the blame of failure to Wilders once more. Any other outcome would be very bad for the country (and the CDA).
]]>In general it’s custom that the largest party (the VVD) takes the initiative, while the parties that have won in the elections are invited to talks first. In this case that amounts to the VVD talking to the PVV.
In fact, Wilders explicitly said that this was the proper way to proceed — and he’s right for a change. (However, officially one is not supposed to talk about the advice one gives to the Queen, so he made a minor faux pas here. On the other hand, his advice is bloody obvious.)
(Source: NRC |
Trouw)
Uri Rosenthal, VVD leader in the Senate, has been appointed informer, and he has started negotiating with the PVV.
(Source: Telegraaf)
Still, although this is an obvious first move VVD party leader Rutte remains careful. He has made it known he’s worried about the internal stability of the potential coalition partners. He pointed out that PVV MP Brinkman recently went against the party line by openly calling for more internal democracy within the PVV. (He also called upon people to vote for him specifically if they agreed with him; unfortunately I haven’t yet seen any reports of preferential votes, so it’s unclear how much of the PVV electorate agrees with him.)
In any case, Rutte has chosen to see this episode as a hint of instability within the PVV, and has asked Wilders for clarification. Clever. Keep the enemy busy.
However, the CDA is also demurring. Several high-ranking CDA members have publicly rejected a coalition with the PVV. Besides, new parliamentary leader Verhagen has said that the CDA, after its historic defeat in the elections, should not be too eager to play a leading role.
(Source: NRC | Trouw)
This is understandable. One of the biggest surprises of the elections was that there turns out to be a voter conduit between CDA and PVV, which nobody had predicted. Thus CDA and PVV have become electoral competitors, and it would be good for the CDA to stay in opposition while the PVV sits in government: disappointed voters may find their way back to the christian-democrats.
As far as I’m concerned this is not good for the country as a whole: right now is the time to prove that Wilders is not truly interested in governing (although he has to pretend he is), and the CDA is required for that mechanism.
So right now VVD and PVV are more-or-less forced to talk to each other and smile, while the CDA can keep in the shadows and decide later.
Informer Rosenthal warned that these talks are supposed to lead to a true government, and not be just a round of talks that anyone can pull out of. I choose to interpret this as a veiled warning to the PVV: get into government or shut up.
Also, his official job description does not state a VVD+PVV coalition is required, so Rosenthal can switch to Purple-green negotiations if the situation warrants it. Still, I hope he won’t do that too soon. Wilders has won convincingly, now let him take responsibility or suffer the consequences.
Right now Rosenthal is talking to the leaders: first Rutte, then Wilders. I assume Verhagen will come next, so that Rosenthal can judge whether the CDA will make good on its threats and stay out of a right-wing coalition. It would not be good if the failure of right-wing negotiations can be put down to the CDA demurring instead of Wilders.
We’ll see. The first steps are not especially surprising, and we now need a week or so to figure out what’s going to happen next. I do expect the VVD to maintain its pressure on the PVV.
]]>The situation is not very different this year. Still, I’m a bit disappointed by the 76 total seats for the right block. Frankly, I’d hoped for a bit more so that Wilders would have been forced to negotiate seriously or suffer a severe loss of face. But now both Rutte and Wilders are right when they say that, even when negotiations between VVD, PVV, and CDA succeed, the coalition would have a narrow basis indeed.
Nonetheless Wilders is calling for a right-wing coalition. That’s perfectly understandable: it’s the only one that would include him. He has even declared that his breakpoint of no increase in the pension age is not a breakpoint after all: he doesn’t want this opinion to stand in the way of succesful negotiations.
(Source: Trouw)
Cohen was quick to call this move cheating: according to the PvdA leader Wilders voters have now voted for a party that breaks its word whenever that’s opportune. Cohen also wonders how reliable Wilders is, if his given wordd doesn’t mean much.
(Source: Volkskrant)
Far more important is that a right-wing coalition is popular among VVD voters. According to a poll 57% of them support VVD+PVV+CDA, and Rutte will have to at least appear ready to listen to them. Problem is that CDA voters aren’t ready for a Wilders at all: less than a third wants this coalition. (I wonder if this is one of the reasons for one third of the CDA voters to stay home).
(Source: Telegraaf | Volkskrant)
Long-time readers of this blog will know I seriously doubt whether Wilders really truly wants to sit in a coalition and take governmental responsibility. Right now he has no choice but to appear to be ready to negotiate: he got in serious problems because the PVV didn’t negotiate at all in Almere and Den Haag, where it became the first and second party, respectively, in the local elections. The general consensus, even among Wilders supporters, was that the PVV had given up far too soon.
Still, I believe that Wilders is secretly relieved that the majority of a right-wing coalition is so exceedingly narrow. It’ll give not only him, but also the CDA a way out.
That’s a pity for the country. I believe it would be best served by a government that includes Wilders, so that either everybody sees that he’s not fit for government, or he has to compromise so much that his well-known talking points, most notably his proposed stop on Islamic immigration, are watered down too much and his voters start looking for another, even more radical option.
Either way, the PVV would be badly served by sitting in government.
Thus the country might be headed for a purple-green VVD+PvdA+GL+D66 coalition after all. It’s the only serious option right now that has explicit support from at least some of the prospective coalition partners. D66 has already announced it wants this coalition, and GL won’t make too much of a problem. However, the opinions of VVD and PvdA aren’t known yet.
VVD and PvdA will certainly take quite a while to negotiate, partly because their standpoints are genuinely different, partly because they mostly waged war against each other during the campaign, and it would be odd if they decided to cooperate within a week.
Trouw published a useful overview of disagreements between the four Purple-green parties. The big danger in the negotiations is that the VVD will have to cooperate with three left-wing parties, and that these three might form a block against it; not necessarily during the negotiations, but certainly later on, when the Rutte government has been formed.
Fortunately, although the three left-wing parties are occasionally aligned against the VVD, at other points the division is between VVD and D66 on the one hand and PvdA and GL on the other, or even between the PvdA and the other three. This will actually make the coalition more stable: the rift in government will not always be along exactly the same lines. VVD and PvdA will form the opposite poles, but GL and D66 will retain the balance between them; supporting now one, then the other.
Still, the last time the country had a coalition of more than three parties was back in 1971 (if one discounts the curious and complex Den Uyl minority government). Three of those parties, however, later formed the CDA, and they were quite used to cooperating, having done it since 1888. Thus some political scientists really count them as one party. If one argues that way, the country has never had a four-party government before. The Rutte government would be the first.
If a right-wing coalition fails, the four Purple-green parties know there is no alternative, though, and having the hot breath of impatient and volatile voters in their neck will certainly help them come to an agreement.
The big, overarching problem for the Purple-green parties is that they together form a centrist coalition, which can be freely attacked both from the right (Wilders) or the left (SP). In theory even a centrist attack by the CDA is possible, but precedent suggests that the CDA is an extremely lousy opposition party that will singularly fail to capitalise on its position.
Still, the twin threats of SP and PVV will loom large in the heads of the Purple-green party leaders. It’s hard to say whether that will make the coalition more or less stable. On the one hand the Purple-green leaders want to postpone elections until after the economic recession, on the other they (especially VVD and PvdA) have more incentive to break with government on a clear ideological point, so that they can appease the radical wing of their block, winning voters back from SP and PVV.
All in all interesting times are ahead.
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