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First poll — Bos wins, Balkenende loses

Yesterday the first poll (PDF) since the fall of government was released, and broadly speaking it shows that Bos’s gamble is paying off — for now. The Dutch voters agree with him on both the policy and the politics side, and the PvdA is gaining seats once more.

A few highlights:

• Since last week, the PvdA has won four seats (15 to 19). Currently it has 33. The party still has a long way to go, but there’s still ample time for that.
• CDA lost one (27 to 26; currently 41). Not exactly a vote of confidence for Balkenende.
• Still, the PvdA’s gain mostly comes from fellow left parties SP (2) and GL (1). Only 1 seat actually comes from the right.
• Wilders also drops by 1 seat (25 to 24; currently 9). He will drop a lot more before the elections, mark my words.
• 62% of Dutch didn’t mind the fall of government. “Wildly unpopular,” anyone? Only CDA and CU voters did mind the fall of government in majority; other parties’ voters did not.
• The single policy question: do you want the mission in Uruzgan to be extended for a year? 60% says No, with, again, only CDA and CU voters saying Yes in majority, while VVD voters give Yes the smallest possible majority of 50%.
• The really important question: whose fault is the fall of government? CDA and PvdA score about one third each, with the remaining third mostly spread over Both or All Three. No voters blame the CU exclusively.
• 39% of Dutch expect the PvdA to be favoured by the fall of government; only 16% says the CDA will be favoured. (These were two different questions, though, so Both or Neither is also an option. Maybe it should have been a single question.)
• Who should be the CDA’s political leader? Among CDA voters Balkenende scores 36%, not exactly a vote of confidence. Among voters in general he scores 18%, with 24% going to current Traffic and Waterstate minister Eurlings (the second-highest catholic in the CDA’s ranks.)
• Bos is clearly favoured to lead the PvdA; 65% of PvdA voters and 36% of voters in general favour him.
• Only 16% of Dutch want Balkenende as prime minister. 42% of CDA voters favour him, but 46% reject him.
• 21% of Dutch want Bos as prime minister. 60% of PvdA voters favour him. All in all Bos has the more healthy scores.

The poll closes with the most interesting questions: how do right-wing voters feel about a purely right-wing government (CDA + VVD + Wilders’s PVV). and how do left-wing voters feel about a purely left-wing government (SP + GL + PvdA + D66)?

On the right, PVV and VVD voters generally support a right-wing government (14% and 23% negative, respectively), but among CDA voters the support is decidedly less (44% negative). It’s clear that a large minority of CDA voters just doesn’t like Wilders much, and it seems likely that the parties of the left will try to woo exactly these voters. “Vote CDA, and get Wilders for free.”

In an interview yesterday, Bos already wondered openly about the CDA’s position with regard to Wilders. Bos feels the CDA should be clear about its coalition preferences, but there’s no way that’s going to happen. If the CDA accepts Wilders openly it’ll lose some of its left wing, if it rejects Wilders openly it may run into serious problems when the elections deliver a right-wing majority. Silence is the best policy right now.

Of course the PvdA will use the CDA’s silence against it: slipperly, unreliable christians never dare to speak up, they’re just turncoating and blathering. This could become an effective attack angle, especially with Wilders in the background.

Still, in the same interview Bos refused to state his own coalition preferences, for much the same reasons as the CDA. Who knows, after the elections he might be forced to cooperate with the CDA again.

The CDA will undoubtedly try to use Bos’s silence against him, but right now the initiative clearly lies with Bos and in the current situation the CDA attack will fail. Still, things might change considerably before the elections.

Left-wing voters support a left-wing government, with the partial exception of D66 voters (27% negative). Although the percentage is less than on the right, keeping D66, which stands to win quite a few seats in the election, on board is going to be difficult, especially since D66 wants to profile itself as a moderate alternative to the PvdA.

Still, all in all this poll is very favourable to Bos and the PvdA, and decidedly less favourable to Balkenende and the CDA. It’s a nice start for the PvdA’s campaign.

<— Dutch government falls over Afghanistan | Party profile — CDA —>

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