Here are the final polls for the 2021 elections taking place today (and for the past two days for Covid risk groups).
There are two last-minute trends that are worth highlighting:
It is clear that Rutte’s VVD will remain the largest party. There’s a struggle going on for second place, though. So far everyone assumed Wilders’s PVV was going to take second again, but with the recent upsurge of D66 that is uncertain.
Also, the VVD may remain the largest party, but which parties will want to enter yet another VVD-led coalition? CDA, yes, that’s a given. But other than that? Will D66 sign up for a second term? Given that it may have broken its streak of losing heavily after coalition participation, maybe. But they’ll need a fourth party. Again CU? D66 and CU remain polar opposites when it comes to progressive and conservative values. GL? PvdA? Who knows.
One thing is certain: it won’t be Wilders or Baudet. Both VVD and CDA have formally excluded them, so when it comes to power a PVV (or FvD) vote remains a wasted one. That won’t stop people from voting for them, though.
Incidentally, the populist parties large and small are at 28 seats in my average, which is exactly the Fortuyn limit in place since the 2002 elections. In those elections the populists won 28 seats as well, and they never exceeded that number. From the polls it appears that 2021 will not be the year they break through the Fortuyn limit, either.
<— Asscher resigns as PvdA leader | 2021 election results —>
This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.
If you like this blog, why not donate a little bit of money to help me pay my bills?
(Add your own)