Individual parties

In both polls the VVD now becomes the second party narrowly ahead of the CDA. My dampened averages don’t show that yet, but that may change tonight when the third poll comes in.

In both polls the PVV loses; in the case of TNS-NIPO very heavily (but remember that’s compared to a month ago). The VVD wins in both. Essentially, the VVD is starting to draw back Wilders voters. This process will continue until the elections.

PvdA and CDA stabilise. For the PvdA the Cohen effect is now done, although its growth might restart after the first debates. Despite Balkenende’s eternal problems the CDA is now stable, too. Right now, the only people who tell a pollster they vote CDA are the hard-core supporters, and there’s still quite a lot of them. I expect both PvdA and CDA to end up at around 40 seats, maybe a tad less.

D66 is going down slowly, the SP is definitely stabilising after its drop in the last few weeks, and it might still go up a bit in the next two months. GL is losing some voters to the PvdA. The CU is still pretty stable at 7 to 8 seats. SGP and PvdD stable. Verdonk will remain in parliament as far as the pollsters are concerned, but I still do not believe that.

Coalitions

Coalition-wise, TNS-NIPO gives PvdA+VVD+D66 Purple the tightest possible majority of 76, but other than that no three-party coalitions are possible. (Well, the forbidden coalition PvdA+CDA+VVD is, as is the impossible PvdA+CDA+PVV. But let’s stick to realistic coalitions.)

In my averages the largest coalition is now PvdA+CDA+D66 centre-left (74 seats), followed by purple (72), and with both left and right at 68 seats. But something will change here, never fear. After the elections centre-left and purple will both certainly be possible, and maybe even centre-right, too.

Coalition-wise I still see us heading to a mirror image of 1994, when the situation was similar and Purple I was formed.

Other polls

The big news right now is the budget. We’re going to have to spend less money on something. But on what? Both TNS-NIPO and Peil.nl investigated that question. A few highlights:

• Tax deductability of mortgage interests. Currently 63% of Dutch feels the deductability can go down, which would essentially mean that owners of more expensive houses would be able to deduct less.
• As could be expected, the left is generally more in favour of restricting deductability than the right. It would make sense for left-wing parties to make this an election platform, while right-wing parties should defend the status quo.
• Interestingly, almost no Dutch are in favour of restricting welfare for long-term jobless.
• Education, police, and health care should not be affected by the current round of budgeting.
• Most popular posts to save money on: bureaucracy, development of third world, Europe, mortgage interests, and pensions (by increasing the pension age from 65 to 67).
• PVV and VVD voters hardly differ on these questions. One more bit of evidence that most PVV voters are in fact disaffected VVD voters that could be won back by the liberals.
• CDA voters are most favourably inclined towards pension age increase. A disproportionate amount of CDA voters is older (and thus eligible for pension). Thus it seems they’re defending their privileges by making sure other people work longer.
• On the left, minus D66, the most popular economizing is cutting the defense budget.

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Polls, polls, polls — TNS-NIPO edition

The new Peil.nl poll has landed. Also, it seems TNS NIPO has finally started up election polling. In addition to yesterday’s release it turns out they conducted a poll about a month ago, but that one hasn’t been officially published. I added both to the polls page. I expect the new Politieke Barometer poll tonight.

Individual parties

In both polls the VVD now becomes the second party narrowly ahead of the CDA. My dampened averages don’t show that yet, but that may change tonight when the third poll comes in.

In both polls the PVV loses; in the case of TNS-NIPO very heavily (but remember that’s compared to a month ago). The VVD wins in both. Essentially, the VVD is starting to draw back Wilders voters. This process will continue until the elections.

PvdA and CDA stabilise. For the PvdA the Cohen effect is now done, although its growth might restart after the first debates. Despite Balkenende’s eternal problems the CDA is now stable, too. Right now, the only people who tell a pollster they vote CDA are the hard-core supporters, and there’s still quite a lot of them. I expect both PvdA and CDA to end up at around 40 seats, maybe a tad less.

D66 is going down slowly, the SP is definitely stabilising after its drop in the last few weeks, and it might still go up a bit in the next two months. GL is losing some voters to the PvdA. The CU is still pretty stable at 7 to 8 seats. SGP and PvdD stable. Verdonk will remain in parliament as far as the pollsters are concerned, but I still do not believe that.

Coalitions

Coalition-wise, TNS-NIPO gives PvdA+VVD+D66 Purple the tightest possible majority of 76, but other than that no three-party coalitions are possible. (Well, the forbidden coalition PvdA+CDA+VVD is, as is the impossible PvdA+CDA+PVV. But let’s stick to realistic coalitions.)

In my averages the largest coalition is now PvdA+CDA+D66 centre-left (74 seats), followed by purple (72), and with both left and right at 68 seats. But something will change here, never fear. After the elections centre-left and purple will both certainly be possible, and maybe even centre-right, too.

Coalition-wise I still see us heading to a mirror image of 1994, when the situation was similar and Purple I was formed.

Other polls

The big news right now is the budget. We’re going to have to spend less money on something. But on what? Both TNS-NIPO and Peil.nl investigated that question. A few highlights:

• Tax deductability of mortgage interests. Currently 63% of Dutch feels the deductability can go down, which would essentially mean that owners of more expensive houses would be able to deduct less.
• As could be expected, the left is generally more in favour of restricting deductability than the right. It would make sense for left-wing parties to make this an election platform, while right-wing parties should defend the status quo.
• Interestingly, almost no Dutch are in favour of restricting welfare for long-term jobless.
• Education, police, and health care should not be affected by the current round of budgeting.
• Most popular posts to save money on: bureaucracy, development of third world, Europe, mortgage interests, and pensions (by increasing the pension age from 65 to 67).
• PVV and VVD voters hardly differ on these questions. One more bit of evidence that most PVV voters are in fact disaffected VVD voters that could be won back by the liberals.
• CDA voters are most favourably inclined towards pension age increase. A disproportionate amount of CDA voters is older (and thus eligible for pension). Thus it seems they’re defending their privileges by making sure other people work longer.
• On the left, minus D66, the most popular economizing is cutting the defense budget.

<— Small fry, 30 March | Wilders turns on headscarves —>

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