The timing is surprising, the content isn’t. Basically it confirms Thursday’s poll in that the PvdA wins five seats, of which one comes from the right, two from D66, and one each from GL and SP. The centre-left PvdA+CDA+D66 coalition does not yet have a majority in this poll, but does win two seats.

On the right the VVD wins one, CDA and PVV each lose one. This is somewhat different from the Politieke Barometer poll of Thursday. I may have been too quick in declaring that the big move to the centre has begun. On the other hand, the VVD is part of the centre, too.

The poll also had some interesting questions:

• Who’s your preferred prime minister?
  1. Cohen 59%
  2. Balkenende 23%
  3. Wilders 16%
  The only party where there’s a real battle between the three is the VVD, whose voters go 45% Cohen, 34% Balkenende, and 21% Wilders.
• Should Balkenende resign before the elections?
  1. Yes 57%
  2. No 34%
  Even among CDA voters 30% thinks Balkenende should resign. That’s pretty much in line with earlier numbers.
• If Balkenende resigns, who should be his successor? Among all voters:
  1. Leers 26% (former mayor of Maastricht)
  2. Verhagen 18% (foreign minister and PvdA’s chosen Evil One)
  3. De Jager 10% (temporary finance minister)
  4. Veerman 7% (former agriculture minister)
  Among CDA voters:
  1. Verhagen 25%
  2. Leers 21%
  3. De Jager 13%
  4. Veerman 13%
  Anyway, Leers, whom I haven’t paid too much attention to yet, is starting to get himself noticed. Like Cohen, he was the mayor of a large city, and he displayed an almost un-CDA-like willingness to face big-city issues, notably drugs, in a sensible way. As this poll shows, he’s popular outside CDA circles, too. And the Maastricht people love him, despite him having to resign a few weeks back because of a minor scandal.
• Strategic voting. When would you consider a strategic vote for PvdA or CDA? Unfortunately this question has not been broken down by block, just by party. And it’s the block scores that are most interesting here.
  In any case, about 30% of GL and D66 voters, and about 15% of SP voters, would consider a PvdA vote if PVV or CDA threatens to become the largest party. This is a classic example of how the prime-minister race works.
  On the right, the percentages are way lower. Only about 5% of VVD voters would consider a CDA vote if PvdA or PVV threatens to become the largest party.
  The left starts to unite, the right remains divided. That fits the election poll results.
• Should PvdA and CDA combine in a coalition after the elections? 68% No, 16% Yes. That’s clear. Even among CDA voters 37% says No against 35% Yes.
  Still, I feel honour-bound to point out that centre-left PvdA+CDA+D66 is currently the only realistic coalition option.
  I wonder how these numbers would change if Balkenende is succeeded by Leers.

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New Peil.nl poll

Oh my, the new Peil.nl poll has landed two days early. I’ve added it to the polls page.

The timing is surprising, the content isn’t. Basically it confirms Thursday’s poll in that the PvdA wins five seats, of which one comes from the right, two from D66, and one each from GL and SP. The centre-left PvdA+CDA+D66 coalition does not yet have a majority in this poll, but does win two seats.

On the right the VVD wins one, CDA and PVV each lose one. This is somewhat different from the Politieke Barometer poll of Thursday. I may have been too quick in declaring that the big move to the centre has begun. On the other hand, the VVD is part of the centre, too.

The poll also had some interesting questions:

• Who’s your preferred prime minister?
  1. Cohen 59%
  2. Balkenende 23%
  3. Wilders 16%
  The only party where there’s a real battle between the three is the VVD, whose voters go 45% Cohen, 34% Balkenende, and 21% Wilders.
• Should Balkenende resign before the elections?
  1. Yes 57%
  2. No 34%
  Even among CDA voters 30% thinks Balkenende should resign. That’s pretty much in line with earlier numbers.
• If Balkenende resigns, who should be his successor? Among all voters:
  1. Leers 26% (former mayor of Maastricht)
  2. Verhagen 18% (foreign minister and PvdA’s chosen Evil One)
  3. De Jager 10% (temporary finance minister)
  4. Veerman 7% (former agriculture minister)
  Among CDA voters:
  1. Verhagen 25%
  2. Leers 21%
  3. De Jager 13%
  4. Veerman 13%
  Anyway, Leers, whom I haven’t paid too much attention to yet, is starting to get himself noticed. Like Cohen, he was the mayor of a large city, and he displayed an almost un-CDA-like willingness to face big-city issues, notably drugs, in a sensible way. As this poll shows, he’s popular outside CDA circles, too. And the Maastricht people love him, despite him having to resign a few weeks back because of a minor scandal.
• Strategic voting. When would you consider a strategic vote for PvdA or CDA? Unfortunately this question has not been broken down by block, just by party. And it’s the block scores that are most interesting here.
  In any case, about 30% of GL and D66 voters, and about 15% of SP voters, would consider a PvdA vote if PVV or CDA threatens to become the largest party. This is a classic example of how the prime-minister race works.
  On the right, the percentages are way lower. Only about 5% of VVD voters would consider a CDA vote if PvdA or PVV threatens to become the largest party.
  The left starts to unite, the right remains divided. That fits the election poll results.
• Should PvdA and CDA combine in a coalition after the elections? 68% No, 16% Yes. That’s clear. Even among CDA voters 37% says No against 35% Yes.
  Still, I feel honour-bound to point out that centre-left PvdA+CDA+D66 is currently the only realistic coalition option.
  I wonder how these numbers would change if Balkenende is succeeded by Leers.

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