Political Quirks monthlies

This is the monthly archive for March 2017.

Small fry; European edition

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Baudet, Europe, Formation, GL, SP

Since Dutch politics are boring and predictable right now, let’s also take a look at some other occurrences.

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Article: The Times of Trouble

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Articles

After a break of nearly seven years I published the sixth article in my series on Dutch political history: The times of trouble about the changes in the Dutch political landscape from 1967 to 1977.

In the end it took me about two hours to perform the final edits on the draft article that has been patiently waiting for many years. The next two articles, The three-party system (1977-1994) and The reasonable revolution (1994-2002) are also ready in a similar draft form, but after that I will have to write new material for which I only have snippets available.

So let’s say I’ll bring the story up to 2002 reasonably quickly. I don’t know what will happen after that, though. Writing these articles takes a lot of time.

Small fry 24/3

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DENK, Election results, Formation, FvD, Van der Staaij, Wilders

A wrap-up of this week. None of these points are terribly important, but they show that Dutch politics are returning to their stable, somewhat boring, default status after the highs of internationally-covered elections.

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Formation news

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CDA, CU, D66, Formation, GL, VVD

There’s not a great deal of news about the formation. Scout Schippers, who will likely be bumped up to informer soon, will talk with VVD, CDA, D66, and GL tomorrow. She also asked parliament for more time, which she’ll likely get.

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Start of the formation

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CDA, CU, D66, Formation, GL, VVD

Today the government formation officially started. “Scout” Edith Schippers (VVD) talked to all thirteen party leaders in order to find out which coalitions they deemed most logical after the elections. Their replies are being shared openly, and give a first indication as to what’s going to happen.

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Aftermath — the European angle

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Europe

Well, that was tense, but in the end the populists lost. Good. Now let’s discuss the international consequences. (We’ll get back to domestic politics and the coalition formation later.)

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Where the Dutch elections stand right now

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Coalitions, Election results, Polls, Rutte, Wilders

With less than two days to go before the election, here’s the state of the race, with a quick introduction for the benefit of those readers tuning in only now.

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The Turkish-Dutch diplomatic row

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Aboutaleb, DENK, Turkish crisis, VVD

What first was a tense situation has now become a full-fledged diplomatic row between Turkey and the Netherlands — a row that serves both Erdoğan and Rutte in their respective campaigns.

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Small fry 11/3

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CDA, GL, Rutte, Turkish crisis, Wilders

The election campaign remains curiously devoid of truly game-changing, or even very important, occurrences. It seems people are tired and want it to end, even if that means returning the most divided parliament in Dutch history.

Still, there’s some small fry.

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Update: Turkish minister

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Turkish crisis

As I reported recently, Turkish foreign minister Çavuşoğlu wants to hold a pro-Erdoğan in Rotterdam next Saturday. The Dutch government, and in fact all Dutch political parties except for DENK, think that’s a bad idea.

Yesterday, the owner of the venue where Çavuşoğlu was to speak cancelled the rally. Rotterdam mayor Aboutaleb confirmed this in a letter, and added that if that hadn’t happened he’d probably have cancelled the rally himself, mostly due to concerns over public order, and also because he fears increasing escalation.

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Why Europe could be less vulnerable to populists

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Coalitions

I have a theory about why Europe might be able to withstand the populist/fascist onslaught better than the US or the UK. It could potentially give a bit of hope in these troubled times. Alternatively, it could be cited as an example of wishful thinking if Wilders, Le Pen, the AfD, and Brexit win after all. In any case, I wanted to publish it before the elections.

My theory is really simple: any political system that gives voters more than two options to choose from will be able to withstand the populist surge better than one that has only two options.

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Debate results

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Buma, Debates, Klaver, Krol

Well, that was interesting. The second major TV debate between eight party leaders actually allows us to draw a few conclusions. It could possibly even be a game-changer, though this year changing the game doesn’t mean winning 10 seats, but rather 3 or 4.

Remember: Wilders refused to attend, which led to Thieme (PvdD) being invited. I am starting to think Wilders has made a mistake here. See below under Buma.

Briefly, I expect 50Plus, GL, and the CDA to win some seats due to this debate, D66 and possibly the SP to remain stable, and the rest, including the PVV, to lose. Let’s see how badly this prediction does when the first post-debate polls come out. (I hope De Hond releases his tonight; for the others we’ll likely have to wait until Wednesday.)

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The Turkish intervention

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DENK, Rutte, Turkish crisis

A new development you should be aware of: Turkish foreign minister Çavuşoğlu is planning a meeting in Rotterdam on 11th of March. The ostensible purpose of this meeting is getting Turks living in Holland to vote in the upcoming referendum on making Erdoğan essentially president for life, but it has consequences for Dutch (and German) politics as well.

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Small fry, 2 March

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50Plus, Campaign, Coalitions, Debates, Wilders

Frankly, not a lot has happened this week, which is the penultimate one before the 15 March elections. Still, here are some recent developments; none of them game-changing, but they may be of interest to political observers.

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See the February 2017 archive.

This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer, in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.

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